Football Picks Free - December 30, 2007
We won last week, adding 5.6 units to the coughers (+19.7 units the past two weeks). It was the eigth winning week out of the last twelve. We come into week 17 with a lot of momentum and we have five picks for the final regular season week.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Cincinnati at Miami (Sunday 12/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Miami +3 (-125) (risk 5 to win 4)
Why in the world would Cincinnati even show up for this game? They played their Superbowl last week. We were on the Bengals in part because they have a heated rivalry with Cleveland, and anything they could do to serve as a spoiler in that contest they did. This week we'll fade them as we don't think they will show up for this game. It isn't any type of rivalry, and how does Cincy get up for the lowly Dolphins? After Miami put one in the win column vs. Baltimore, the stigma of losing to Miami is now gone. Miami is still playing hard, and they have already clinched the top draft pick (not affected by outcome of this game). With Bill Parcells hovering and making evaluations, you can be sure to see maximum effort here. The Bengals are getting all the action, but Miami is the team that has played hard all season. December home underdogs coming off a road blowout loss of 14+ points are 56-25 (69%) ATS since 1983. Miami should win this game outright but we'll take the insurance points.
Game: Buffalo at Philadelphia (Sunday 12/30 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Donovan McNabb looks like a guy trying to retain his starting position. He seems to be making a statement to the tune of "Yeah, my ankle is finally healed and those of you who thought I was done can kiss my a**!" He led the Eagles to a huge upset over Dallas two weeks ago and followed that up with a three-TD performance in another upset win last week. When he is on, and Brian Westbrook (1,291 yards rushing) is on, this offense is almost unstoppable. Buffalo has been a decent surprise this season but they remain bad on the road, averaging just 9.6 points per game. Philadelphia is on a roll and we expect them to bring it again here, and the Bills will have trouble keeping up. Philadelphia is better than you think. Despite their lackluster year, this Eagles offense is still ranked 6th best in the league in yardage. In contrast, Buffalo's offense is ranked 31st, ahead of only San Francisco. Philly's defense is ranked 9th while Buffalo's is ranked 30th. Dick Jauron-led teams are just 2-11 ATS on the road vs. good offensive teams (those averaging 350+ yards per game). Under Andy Reid, Philadelphia is a team that doesn't let down after an upset win. In fact it's the opposite. They are 18-8 ATS coming off an upset win. They are also a great team to back as a favorite. We expect an ugly blowout here.
Game: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Sunday 12/30 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Pittsburgh stopped the bleeding last week ending a two-game slide by easily handling the Rams 41-24. They took a huge hit in that game though, losing the NFL's leading rusher, Willie Parker, for the rest of the season. It's the biggest fear of any coach down the stretch is to lose a key player or two, and with that fresh in the mind, you can bet playing Steelers starters throughout in this one won't likely happen. The absence of an able-bodied QB for Baltimore led to Troy Smith's first start last week. He played good, completing 16 of 33 passes for 199 yards and a TD, with no INTs. In Baltimore, that's certainly an upgrade. Baltimore has lost nine straight games, and you'd think they'd want to wipe out the pain of defeat, and secure one victory before the season ends. No one wants to end the season on an 0-10 run. The Steelers haven't won in Baltimore since 2002. This line in itself, is begging for Pittsburgh action. Think about it. San Diego is in Oakland this week in a similar game (one bad team that is out of the playoffs hosting a team going into the playoffs). San Diego is better than a TD favorite, while here the Steelers are favored by just a field goal. You might say that Baltimore is better than Oakland. But are they? The Ravens have managed two ATS wins all season, have lost nine in a row and are missing many key players. And, the Steelers do have something to play for - a better seed if they win and San Diego loses. Yet the line is hovering around a field goal. The oddsmakers seem to be begging you to take the Steelers. We're not biting. Since last season, the Steelers are 1-8 ATS on the road following a win and 0-6 ATS after scoring 35+ points. When a team is at its lowest, sometimes that's the time to back them. Baltimore is at rock bottom and heated divisional rivalries sometimes yield the unexpected, as we saw in Chicago last week. The Ravens surprise here.
Game: Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday 12/30 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Green Bay -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Green Bay had everything to play for last week and got smashed in the mouth by Chicago. They lost all hope of home-field advantage through the playoffs. Do they want to enter the playoffs on a downward spiral, losing yet another game after that one - a loss to the lowly Lions at home? No way! We look for Green Bay to bring an effort here to avoid that nightmare. You can bet Favre is itching to get back on the field after his 153-yard performance last Sunday. It was the worst playing conditions he's faced in his career, according to Favre. With 40-mile-per-hour gusts of wind and sub-zero windchill temperatures, we can give a "pass" to the Packers. Especially considering that they had two punts blocked and two turnovers. Brett Favre has never lost to Detroit at home and the Lions haven't won here in 16 tries. Green Bay is 13-3-2 ATS in their last eighteen games vs. Detroit. The Lions snapped a horrific second-half skid with a 5-point win over KC last week. But, do they deserve much credit for that? The Chiefs afterall have lost eight games in a row! Detroit is 2-10 ATS the past two seasons as a road underdog of 7 points or less and 2-9 ATS on the road vs. conference foes. Green Bay to roll against the defenseless Lions here.
Game: St. Louis at Arizona (Sunday 12/30 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110
It's hard to believe either of these teams will show much interest here. What might be a superb high scoring game in the middle of the season is likely to more resemble an exhibition game. The difference is, totals posted in exhibition games are typically in the low to mid 30s, not pushing 50. We have a totals system in play here that applies to late-season NFL play that has produced over 60% UNDERs. We also have a week-17 totals system that applies here and has gone 44-22 to the UNDER over the past eight years. We will ride the UNDER in this one.
Results: 3-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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NFL-Football-Picks-December-16-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-December-08-2007
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