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Football Handicapping - December 28, 2008We're off our best week of the season as we went 9-3 (35-12 on a unit basis) for +20 units in one week. It was the 12th winning week out of the last 13 and we're up 78 units over that span (65-37 for 64%). We have seven week 17 picks... On our NFL season win-total selections, we are 7-4 going into the last week with three bets still in the balance.  Today's NFL Football Picks: Since the Bengals lost Carson Palmer, the offense hasn't been able to do anything the entire season. There may even be some evidence it has regressed. They have managed 10.5 ppg in their last six contests. Considering the ineptness of the offense, the defense has had to spend a lot of time on the field. Given that, the defense has been good, especially against the caliber of team that is not headed to the playoffs. The Bengals have held each of the last four non-playoff bound teams on their schedule to 19 points or less (just 11.3 ppg). That certainly offers a lot of wiggle room with a total in the upper 30s. The Chiefs have been a road disaster offensively and with nothing to play for here I wouldn't expect them to rise above mediocrity in this one. They have managed all of 163 points in their last 12 road games - a meager 13.6 ppg. That has been an even worse 11.8 ppg this season. I'm not sure where the points are going to come from in this one, so I'll play this one to go UNDER the total. Game: Carolina at New Orleans (Sunday 12/28 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on New Orleans +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 52 -110 What a difference a weekn (and an OT loss) can make. Last week Carolina was playing the Giants for the potential top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This week they are looking down the barrel of the #5 seed if they lose this game. The NFC South has been an impossible place to play for visitors as all teams entering week 17 carry winning home records. Given that all teams have a winning record overall as well, it has to be considered the toughest division in the NFL. These teams have compiled a 26-3 SU record at home as well as a rate of 20-8-1 ATS. Division games certainly haven't been a picnic for Carolina as they have suffered their two biggest losses of the season on the road within their conference. They dropped their game at Atlanta by 17 and at Tampa by 24. Their track record on the road is shaky all together. While they are 3-4, the Panthers are a dismal 0-4 against a teams with a winning record. Their three wins consist of a two- point win and a four-point win against teams with losing records. So being instilled as a favorite here is suspect as these NFC South teams are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog. New Orleans simply has a bad defense, but they have utilized their top-ranked offense to seduce teams into shootouts. They have faced running backs that are ranked in the top four in the league five times this season. They have faced Michael Turner twice, DeAngelo Williams, Adrien Peterson and Clinton Portis. Not a single one of these top backs rushed for 100 yards on the Saints. They have stopped them all cold. They combined to average just 3.3 yards per carry against the Saints! New Orleans simply loads up the box versus these backs and forces them to play their passing offense against that of the Saints. Carolina did a superb job at home against the Saints, as they were the only team this season to hold them under 20 points. But this one is the road and in this division this year, those scores have been reversed almost each and every time. This is a high total, but should be more like a playoff game, and these teams have played UNDER in seven of their last eight meetings. Carolina has played UNDER in their last six after allowing 150+ on the ground in their last game. I like the Saints here and the UNDER. Game: Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday 12/28 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 43 -110 The Detroit Lions look to avoid being the first team in NFL history to go 0-16. The oddsmakers give them a very low chance of avoiding this fate as they face Green Bay. The Packers have the same number of wins as the Lions over the last five weeks - and that is exactly zero. Detroit should bring some intensity into this game in an effort to avoid the embarrassment of finishing as the worst team in NFL history. I would have to think that Green Bay plays hard here to avoid being the team that gave the Lions their only win. And, this is a division-rivalry game that is often played hard, regardless of the circumstances. Aaron Rodgers has appeared to hit the wall and the Packers' offense has struggled to just 18 ppg in the last three games. I would think he may even share QB duties with Flynn this week, just to give him a few snaps, especially if they get out to a big lead. The Lions are managing just 265 yards of offense per game and have scored just 54 points in their last four games or 13.5 ppg. Neither of these teams has anything to play for in terms of playoffs, but everything to play for in terms of pride, especially with the Lions being winless. I like this one to go UNDER the total. Game: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (Sunday 12/28 1:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) This game looks like an automatic blowout for the Steelers who are one of the league's top teams facing one of the league's worst. We have the top-ranked defense against an offense that couldn't even score against the Bengals at home a week ago, and hasn't scored an offensive TD in five weeks. The public is racing to pile on the post X-Mas gift from the oddsmakers at 84% on the Steelers. Not so fast! The outcome of this game does not change the fate of the Steelers. They are locked into the #2 seed regardless of the outcome. Mike Tomlin said at his press conference he will not treat this like an exhibition game, but what is he supposed to say? He said the same last year when the Steelers had secured a playoff spot then sat all of his starters and went on to lose a game to the 4-11 Ravens outright - a game in which they were also favored. Ben Roethlisberger, ailing all season long, was quoted this week as saying he could use some time off after getting banged around pretty good by the Titans. The Browns are down to their fourth QB, with Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and now Ken Dorsey all injured. The public hears 4th string and cringes. But, Bruce Gradkowski will actually be an upgrade over Dorsey in my opinion. Gradkowski had nine TD passes in his last 11 starts in the NFL which is nine more TDs than Cleveland QBs have produced in the last five games. I also love the fact that the Browns are coming off a ridiculously embarrassing loss last week to the then 2-12 Bengals, getting shut out. Teams that suffer the most embarrassing fate in the NFL (getting shutout at home) have come back to go 45-25 ATS since 1983! As ugly as this one looks, the Browns get the call here. Game: New England at Buffalo (Sunday 12/28 1:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Perhaps one of the most overlooked factors for the Bills this year has been the QB situation. When Trent Edwards is healthy, the Bills are simply a much different team. They are 7-4 with him and 0-4 without him. Most of those losses with Edwards in the lineup came when he returned after he suffered a concussion against the Rams. The Bills have also played much better the last two weeks. They gave a win away against the Jets in the last two minutes with a fumble, but they still got the ATS win. And, they won on the road against another team that needed a win at Denver. While most have left Buffalo for dead, this team isn't as bad as you think. The Pats have exploded for 96 points in the last two weeks, and everyone is on the bandwagon again. Those games were over before halftime, so the Pats were able to play loose and free. Last week's 47-7 win over a playoff-bound team solidified in the mind of the public that New England is a force! What everyone forgets is that they had the fight of their life three weeks ago at Seattle. Despite having a +1 turnover advantage, the Pats needed a TD on the last drive to pull out the win against a team that was 2-10 and had lost six straight and were also a seven-point underdog. The Arizona team they beat last week had played three games on the East Coast and lost them all, giving up more points in two of them than the 47 the Patriots scored against them! The Oakland team they beat two weeks ago was 3-15 at home in their last 18, but the Patriots were just a 6.5 point favorite there? This game is getting too much extra juice on the line because of those two games and the bandwagon effect. This is a game where the Bills won't lie down as they are fighting for Dick Juron's job and would like nothing more than to finish the season on a winning note, hurting the hated Patriots' palyoff chances in the process. I think the Patriots will have their hands full here, so I'm backing the Bills with the points. Game: Denver at San Diego (Sunday 12/28 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 50.5 -110 The last game of the NFL regular season will be a virtual playoff matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers. The Chargers looked dead in the water at 4-8 through 12 games, but three straight wins combined with terrible play by Denver (against the Raiders and Bills at home no less), results in this game being played for the AFC West Title. The Broncos have worn the overrated banner all season long. The perception that this team was somehow good was created when Jay Cutler opened the season leading the Broncos to 38 ppg and a 3-0 record. Cutler had thrown for eight TD passes and 308 yards per game in those first three games. The truth was that even then, Denver was severely overrated. Their only convincing win of the three was vs. lowly Oakland. Ed Hoculi handed them an undeserved win vs. San Diego in game two, and they squeaked by New Orleans in game three with a late field goal to win by 2 points. That 308 yard average by Cutler would only be reached four times in the next 11 games. At the time, he had a 113.4 QB rating. The last 12 games would see Cutler not complete a single game with a rating that high. After the opening three games throwing eight TDs, the next 12 saw him throw just 16 more. The problem with those 16 TDs is that they came with 14 INTs. The 38 ppg offense was reduced to an offense that has averaged 19.6 ppg in their last 12 games. That would rank No. 25 in the NFL in points scored per game. The Chargers have played to a 7-3-1 record to the UNDER in their last 11 weeks. And, this team has not faced a total of greater than 48.5 points the entire season! They just haven't been great on either side of the ball, but good on both sides of the ball. Totals in the 50s should be reserved for teams with big, consistent offenses and neither of these teams has demonstrated that this season. I like this one to go UNDER the total. Results: 2-5 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-December-22-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-19-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-19-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-18-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-15-2008 |
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