We came out ahead one unit on Sunday but with Thursday night's loss, we're down on the week. We like both Monday games as we look to post another winning week with a 2-0 day.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit $100 per unit players have made $7,881 $500 per unit players have made $39,405 $1000 per unit players have made $78,810 View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Philadelphia at Dallas (Monday 12/25 5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia +7

The Romo/Dallas hype machine has been very up and down since Tony took over the QB reigns eight weeks ago. It hit its peak two weeks ago after Romo had led Dallas to a 6-1 mark. Dallas fell hard to New Orleans on Sunday night and things calmed down. Then Dallas smacked down Atlanta last week on national TV scoring 38 and winning by ten. The machine is revved back up and here they lay more points than they should be. We'll take the value and back an Eagles team that has been been playing pretty darn good football themselves of late. While he's no Tony Romo, Jeff Garcia has ressurected a dead team in much the same way. Since taking over for Donavan McNabb three weeks ago, the Eagles have won three straight games. People forget this was a Pro Bowl QB in San Francisco. He had a rough go in Cleveland on a bad team but here he is making the most of his new opportunity. The Eagles have plenty to play for here as they can still win the NFC East. Philadelphia's defense thrives on blizting the quarterback. The only team to have real success against Tony Romo thus far was New Orlens and they did just that. Romo is lights out when he has time and can get out of the pocket. If the Eagles can pressure him and keep him contained inside the tackles, they have a shot at slowing him down. Michael Westbrook is one of the league's most explosive running backs. He has over 1000 yards rushing and over 650 receiving. He was snubbed for a Pro Bowl berth so look for him to come out with something to prove here. The Andy Reid-led Eagles are 25-12 ATS in the second half of the eseason vs. teams at 60%+ SU. Take nothing away from the Cowboys as they are great. But Philly is in a bit more need here and they are playing very good right now. Getting 7 on a team like that represents value and we'll take it.

This line opened at -1 and has climbed to -2.5. Not a big difference really unless it hit -3. We like the side that is getting the action. Miami has been an interesting team this year. They start out 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS. Then they win four straight and five of six both SU and ATS. They beat New England 21-0 last week only to get blanked 21-0 by Buffalo last week. We expect a strong bounce-back by them here after that terrible performance last week. Teams off a shutout are always worth a look as they are a bit undervalued. Meanwhile, the Jets are off a very high-profile win as they went into Minnesota and won on the road. They have won three of five and have the playoffs in their sites. There are now believers in New York. It's a great clash of opposite forces here which gives us a contrarian play on the Fins. If not for the outcomes of last week, Miami would be laying well over a field goal here. It's actually a bit surprising to see Miami favored here. The linesmakers are giving us a hint here. Why would a losing team off a terrible loss be favored over a winning team off a win? That loss last week by Miami was maybe due to their competition. The Fins won't take this game lightly as they need it desperately and they are 8-1 ATS vs. winning teams during the second half of the season the past three years. The Jets are a great story. We are happy about them having won eight games already as we had a big play on them to win over 6 this year. But, let's look at who they have been beating. They beat Tennessee in week one when the Titans were among the worst teams in the league. They beat Buffalo in week three when the Bills were horrible. They beat Miami early on when Miami was in the middle of their 1-6 start. They then beat Detroit (bottom 5 team), Houston (bottom 10 team), Green Bay and a struggling Minnesota. They really have one quality win against a quality opponent this year and that was a 17-14 victory over New England. So, take New York's 8-6 record with a grain of salt. Miami, in the second half of the season, has beaten Chicago, Kanas City, Minnesota and New England. The edge here goes to the Dolphins at home.