Nfl Preseason Picks - December 27, 2009
Happy Holidays to all! We've had a super December...
We went 5-1 in the NFL last week and are now 31-15 (67%) in the second-half of the season (and we're up 10.3 units on the season). After a 4-0 start to the Bowls, we are 173-110 (61%) for +165.3 units overall in the month of December ($16,530 gained for $100 players).
This week in the NFL we roll with eight picks including my 5-unit NFL Game of the Month: The Skins over the Boys.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: San Diego at Tennessee (Friday 12/25 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Diego +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Wrong team favored. The Tennessee Titans, after an 0-6 start, have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. But, the San Diego Chargers are playing better than any team in the NFL right now including the Colts, Saints and yes, the Titans. The Bolts have run nine straight games and have not lost a December game since 2005, running the streak to 17 straight. The Chargers have become a model of consistency on offense, with great balance. They remain the only NFL team to have scored at least 20 points in every single game. While Tennessee has feasted this year on opponents like Jacksonville, San Francisco, Buffalo and St. Louis, they have struggled versus teams that can throw the ball. They have not been able to stop top QBs and elite passing attacks all season long. They have faced Brady, Warner, Schaub and Manning twice each. The six games show QBs combining to go 169-235 for 72% completions, 1,863 yards, 16 TDs and one INT. Wow! Those numbers projected over an entire season would be Hall of Fame caliber. The Jeff Fisher-led Titans have actually always struggled vs. top passing teams as they are just 6-16 ATS vs. teams that pass for 260+ yards per game. The Chargers are supposed to get center Nick Hardwick back, which will just add to protection for Rivers who has already put up MVP numbers thi season. The Titans have been playing well, but they will be running into a team that looks "Super" right now. The Bolts are on a 20-6-3 ATS as a dog and 16-5 ATS under Norv Turner when coming off back-to-back wins. As good as the Titans have been playing, they are 1-8 ATS against teams with a winning record, including 0-5 ATS during this season, and 0-3 ATS during this 7-1 run. I'll go with San Diego here.
Game: Jacksonville at New England (Sunday 12/27 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New England -8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The talk of late is that the Pats just aren't that good. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games and their offense has had some problems moving the ball of late, scoring just 75 points their last four games. Don't buy the hype. This team is superb at home, going 7-0 and winning by 17 points per game, and scoring 31 per contest. This offensive slump won't last as this offense is simply much better than that. They are peeved and that could spell trouble for the Jags here. How serious are the Pats taking this game vs. Jacksonville? Coach Belichick is calling for a Christmas Day practice to ensure the Pats bring their "A" game to this one. Much of the talk this year has been about a Pats defense that has lost several key players and has struggled. The fact is, this team has held eight of 14 opponents to 17 points or less. They are 7-0 at home thanks to a defense that has allowed under two TDs per game (and just 10 points per game in their last four)! The Jags had everything in their own hands at 7-5, but dropped their last two to fall among the myriad of teams at 7-7. Amidst the playoff talk for the Jags lies a hidden fact - they are playing well under the line at 2-8 ATS in their last 10 weeks. The schedule has been very easy. They notched wins against the likes of Houston, St. Louis, Kansas City, the Jets and Buffalo. But when the Jags have had to face a team with a winning record, which is only four times all season, they have failed to put one in the win column. The truth is they are a mediocre team, getting outscored on the season by 4 points per game (11 per game on the road). They have a 9-21 ATS overall record the past two seasons. The Pats are often facing double-digit lines at home, but when they face a line of under 10, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11, and 3-0 ATS this year, and are now 34-16-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 in their last 51. The Pats are out to prove something and their offense should get untracked. With the Jags averaging 13.8 per game on the road, facing a shut-down defense here at home, this spells blowout. Remember, buy low and sell high - and right now New England is a great buy.
Game: Houston at Miami (Sunday 12/27 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Houston must win to keep hopes alive for their first-ever winning season. I think they bring a lot of intensity to this game. There has been one constant for the Dolphins this season. Put them against a top QB, and they are in trouble. Other than the second New England game when they faced an injured Tom Brady, the Dolphins have fallen to all other top-notch quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady (game 1) and Drew Brees all took care of business vs. the Fins. Enter one of the hottest QBs in the NFL right now in Matt Schaub. Schaub has completed 72% of his passes for 732 yards, three TDs and one INT in his last two games. The Dolphins rely on blitzing and getting to the QB. Against less-capable signal callers, they have had success and they've posted 40 sacks on the season. The problem is that Schaub has not taken a sack in the last two games, and just 23 for the season. If Vince Young can throw all over against the Dolphins’ secondary, Schaub and Andre Johnson should have a field day. The Texans have shored-up a poor run defense and since early October have had just three games allowing over 100 yards. Ricky Williams has new-found ball security issues having become a fumble machine. Chad Henne is like a box of cracker jacks, you never know what you’re going to get, good or bad. The Texans never used to be a good road team, but have now matured and gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven. Meanwhile the Dolphins continue to implode at home at just 5-22 ATS in their last 27 as home chalk. I like the Texans here.
Game: Oakland at Cleveland (Sunday 12/27 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Oakland +3 (+100) (risk 4 to win 4)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 38 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Raiders undoubtedly have QB issues, but last week they pounded the Broncos for 241 yards on the ground. Charlie Frye gets the start here and against Cleveland, he'll be good enough. After watching the Chiefs go for 5.6 yards a pop vs. the Browns, I expect Oakland to find some success in this game. The Raiders were struggling against the run, but the last two weeks have held opponents to less than 3.8 yards per carry in each contest. Brady Quinn is done for the year, meaning Derek Anderson gets the QB assignment which hasn't been good for the Browns. He has already had two chances to secure the starting role, with the lowly Quinn his competition. He couldn't grab the starting spot either time. The Raiders and Browns are both bad teams, but the Raiders have shown a much higher ceiling with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cleveland has had no success as a favorite and really don't belong in that role as the last four times they have been given the oddsmakers edge they are 0-4 ATS. The fact is that in those four games, the Browns lost them all straight up, which certainly is more likely than not to repeat itself here. The Raiders have played their best ball on the road this year, posting three of their five wins, while the Browns are just 1-5 at home. I like the Raiders in this one. I also like the UNDER. Oakland averages 12.5 points per game while Cleveland averages 14.2 per game and both are starting backup quarterbacks. The Raiders are a perfect 7-0 UNDER since last season when facing a team that allows 24+ points per game. Cleveland is 18-6 UNDER in their last 24 home games posted as a small favorite of 3 or fewer points. The Browns are also 9-2 UNDER off an OVER in their prior game. I expect a tight close-fought very low-scoring game here.
Game: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Sunday 12/27 7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay +14 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 49.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Saints finally lost a game last week to the Cowboys. Sometimes the prospects of an undefeated season and streak can take its toll as the Saints had to bring it every single week. After suffering that first loss, you can expect a collective sigh of relief. Not that they wanted to lose that game. They certainly wanted to win and go undefeated. But, now that that's out the window, it's only natural to relax a bit and take the foot off the gas for the first time all season. I don't expect to see their "A" game this week, especially facing the 2-12 Bucs, a team they beat 38-7 earlier this season. Tampa Bay's defense could not stop anyone through the first 10 games as they were allowing 29.4 points per game. They have really improved on that side of the ball as they have allowed just 17.3 ppg in their last four games. The problem has been on offense as they have scored just 10 ppg in the last four games. The Saints’ offense, although still a force, has put up two of the three lowest outputs of the season in consecutive games and isn't performing like the machine they were almost all season. With a "breather" type game here, it's not unlikely to see them again produce under their high-flying average. The Saints will likely do enough here to win, but I don't see them interested while Tampa Bay has an opportunity to take down the best team in the NFC, and should be bringing their best to this one, riding the confidence from a 17-point win last week. Since 1983, division home favorites of more than 10 points coming off an upset loss are just 14-41 ATS (25%)! The Saints are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Two touchdowns is a ton of points in a divisional game, regardless of the teams. I like Tampa Bay to find a way to keep this close enough to get the cover. I also like the UNDER. The Bucs’ improved defense (17.3 ppg allowed over the last month) has them bringing five straight UNDERs into this one. They have also gone 9-3 UNDER in their last twelve vs. winning teams. Despite their high-flying offense, New Orleans has gone 4-3 UNDER at home this season and 3-1 UNDER in division games. Take the Bucs and the UNDER here.
Game: Dallas at Washington (Sunday 12/27 8:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Washington +7 (-120) (risk 5 to win 4.2)
Buy low, sell high. This one sets up as a classic NFL overlay. Dallas is off their biggest win of the season beating the then 13-0 Saints on the road. The Cowboys were so "up" for that game that they caught New Orleans off-guard and they got the "December" monkey off their back in a big way. There is nowhere to go from there but down. Meanwhile, the Skins played their worst game of the season, from coaching staff to player, getting thrashed by the Giants on Monday Night in front of the whole world 45-12. Off a short week, how can they possibly stop the now high-flying Cowboys? Haven't we witnessed this script playing itself out over and over in this league, as too much emphasis is placed on one game? Two weeks ago, everyone was writing the Cowboys off with their home loss to San Diego and December swoon. At the same time, the Skins were being glorified for five straight weeks worth of ATS winners over Denver, Dallas, Oakland, Philly and New Orleans. But now after one week, Dallas is great again and Washington bad. But are the Redskins to be measured from the egg they laid last week, or by the 1-point loss in Big D, 3-point loss in Philly, OT loss to the then unbeaten Saints, and a win in Denver? I think the fact that they played four top teams to the wire exceeds what they did last week. The Skins were 9-point dogs at Philly a short time ago and now they are a TD dog at home to Dallas? That is what you call line value. Let's not forget, despite last week's big win, the Cowboys are still 2-9 ATS in December under Wade Phillips and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 division games. And, the Cowboys could all but barely squeak out a 7-6 victory over Washington in Dallas a few weeks ago. This is a heated division game and a touchdown is just too much. Contrarian play on the Redskins here.
Results: 6-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-December-21-2009
Sometimes our human brains can fail us. We fall into the trap of putting a label on a team and then not budging, despite evidence to the contrary. The Redskins are the team no one wants to touch. But ...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-18-2009
The expected shootout between Dallas and San Diego never materialized last week and we cashed on the UNDER in that one. I'm again going to fade the expected high-scoring outcome here. It seems as ...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-14-2009
We were on Arizona big last week. I liked the Cardinals in that spot vs. the then-one loss Vikings. Arizona was coming on and Minnesota was overrated. The Cardinals dominated that game and won outrigh...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-11-2009
The Texans just can't get over the hump. A season of promise as a potential playoff team has yet again failed to meet expectations. One of the reasons is a myriad of injuries with eight players on...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-07-2009
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight to get to 7-4 and appear to have turned a corner. If the season ended today, they would have earned one of the NFL Wildcard spots. With a win to...
