The Monday night win on the UNDER gave us our 11th winning week out of 15. We're 51-34 (60%) on the regular season now.

This week we have five weekend plays. We have a lean on Minnesota in Thursday night's game but we are not making that a pick as we have decided to lay off the game given that this could be Favre's last home game. If it weren't for that, we'd like the Vikes as they are a better team than the Pack and getting over a field goal. Anyway, we'll focus on Saturday and Sunday's best instead.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit $100 per unit players have made $7,881 $500 per unit players have made $39,405 $1000 per unit players have made $78,810 View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck to you...

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Kansas City at Oakland (Saturday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Oakland +7

Kansas City has watched its playoff hopes go up in smoke the last three weeks as the once 7-4 Chiefs have now dropped three straight and stand at 7-7. It would virtually take a miracle to make the play-offs. Oakland has just been awful, getting shutout for the third time this season last week, this time at home 20-0. It creates an interesting situation for us though. Here is a Kansas City team that, even when it had something to play for, was unable to get it done for several straight weeks. The offense has struggled mightily, especially against good defensive teams. And if Oakland has a calling card it is their #4 rated defense. Here is what KC has done on the road vs. some of the top defenses in the league: They scored just 10 against Miami's #3 ranked defense. They put up just 9 against SD's #8 ranked defense, and they scored just 6 against what was the #1 ranked defense at the time in Denver. They even struggled at home, as they scored just 10 against Balt's #1 defense, and 17 against this same Oakland team. They won that game by just 4 points. They have scored 10 or less six times this season and here they are favored by a touchdown on the road - a place they have averaged just 8.5 ppg vs. similar defenses. They have only managed to average 15.5 ppg in all of their last six games, home included. There is another very strong signal on this game. We have a system dating back to 1992 that fits this game, and it has won 83% of the time. It favors the underdog and in these games the underdog has not only coverd but has won outright 67% of the time! We will gladly play against a team scoring at the rate of 8.5 ppg in similar situations, one that has lost 3 straight, and already played their last meaningful game of the year.

This is a big game for Jacksonville as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. A loss here will pretty much seal their fate. New England has done superb on the defensive side of the ball but has struggled at times, and has been inconsistent on the offensive side. While average on the road, Jacksonville's defense has been a monster at home. They have forced 16 turnovers and have held teams to 258 yards per game. This all translates in just 9.1 ppg at home. This home defensive dominance for Jacksonville exends to 12 games at 10.8 ppg! This looks like a place for a play on both the side and total in this game, as New England is better defensively than offensively and Jacksonville just doesn't give up an inch. We like the Jacksonville offense to be more productive than New England's as they have outgained opponents at home by an average of 120 yards per game. Let's come back to the Jags at home. Here they have beaten the likes of Dallas, Pittsburgh, the Jets, Tennessee, the Giants and Indianapolis. Some good teams. And they did it convincingly. Their average margin of victory in those games as 30.2 to 6.8. Yes, New England can be scary this time of year but Jacksonville at home is downright awesome. So Jacksonville laying a small number is fine. With New England bringing in the 2nd ranked defense, we like the UNDER as well.

The Colts were completely exposed at Jacksonville two weeks ago and last Monday everyone wondered how they could stop the run vs. Cinncinati and keep the Bengals from scoring a huge amount of points. We got that question answered as the Colts easily handled the Bengals 34-16, playing a rare good game on defense. Nothing has changed though folks. That was a good situation for the Colts and as we said on Monday, their defense was bound to show up for that game after such a humiliating performance vs. the Jags. But can they do it twice in a row? Likely not. They are fat and happy again after that big key win. Now they face a lowly Houston squad that will not have the attention of the Colts. This game isn't about stats - it is about mindset. We have seen it in this Colts team before, as they have had uninspired efforts against teams that don't get their attention. They squeak by Tennessee by 1 at home and after going to New England and winning, they squeak past Buffalo by 1 also. This is a ton of points for a team that has a history of just playing well enough to win in these type of games. Let's not let Monday night's result deter us from the facts here. The Colts have the worst run defense in the league. Their running game is not very good. They by and large are not covering big numbers this year. They care about the playoffs and about beating good teams (like last week) to make a statement. They don't care about showing up vs. weak teams. That's not what Dungy and this Colts team is about. Dungy is in fact 4-14 ATS on the road in December games over the past decade and Indy is 8-20 ATS the past two weeks of the year over that span. Take the dog and the generous points.

What an interesting game to watch! We can't understand why this isn't the top primetime matchup of the weekend! Well, ok - it's gotta be the worst on the board. But we aren't looking for interesting - we are looking for profitable. It doesn't get much worse than the Tampa Bay offense. Despite their weird outburst for 31 last game, they are still ranked 31st in the league in points scored, 30th in yards per game and dead last in yards per play. Cleveland is bad too but ever so slightly better. They are ranked 30th, 29th and 30th respectively. Cleveland also had a weird 31 point game recently. But take out those two 31 point performances and these two teams are averaging 11 points per game each on offense the past six weeks. The other things point to an UNDER here are numerous. With Gruden as head coach, the Bucs have gone UNDER 25-15 on the road and 28-12 UNDER following a road game. They are also 20-8 UNDER with Gruden at the helm when facing a losing team including 14-2 UNDER vs. terrible teams (under 40% SU). Romeo Crennel is now a perfect 6-0 UNDER as a home favorite. Celveland is on a 10-2 UNDER run in close games (+3 to -3) and 11-3 UNDER after two straight games in which they struggled offensively (scored 17 or less). Look for very little offense here and a very low scoring affair.