Free Nfl Weekly Picks - December 20, 2009

We suffered our first setback in four weeks last week, going 4-6. Despite that, over the last month we are 26-14 (65%) for +27.6 units. This week we come back with five Sunday picks including two 5-unit plays.

We are on great runs in all sports including:

NHL: 155-81 (66%) for +183.9 units the last 2 months (best season ever)
NBA: 15-9 (63%) for +9.1 units over the last two weeks
CBB: 32-23 (58%) for +19.8 units over the last two weeks

Over the past six weeks, we are 296-213 (58%) for +160.5 units on all sports. That's +$11,650 for $100 players in just six weeks.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	26-14 last 40 picks	65%	+$2760
CFB	4-2 last 6 picks	67%	+$480
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	32-23 last 55 picks	58%	+$1980
NBA	16-10 last 26 picks	62%	+$890
NHL	156-83 last 239 picks	65%	+$18040
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$38010

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Dallas at New Orleans (Saturday 12/19 8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 53.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The expected shootout between Dallas and San Diego never materialized last week and we cashed on the UNDER in that one. I'm again going to fade the expected high-scoring outcome here. It seems as far as the Cowboys go this season, those types of games have been reserved for the Giants, who may have their number due to familiarity, or just luck. In their two games vs. New York, the Cowboys and Giants teamed up to score a total of 119 points. Outside of the Giants, Dallas has not allowed a single opponent to score more than 21 points this entire season - eleven games! And, a Dallas offense that was lighting things up earlier in the season has gone cold. Dallas has averaged just 16.5 points per game since the mid-way point in the season. The fact is, as offensive as the Cowboys are in the public's eyes it has been the defense carrying the mail this season. Last week everyone expected the high-flying Chargers to put up a bunch of offense vs. Dallas. Going into that game, San Diego had scored 30+ in each of their last four games, averaging 34 ppg. They managed 20 against Dallas. Those Chargers numbers look like New Orleans’ numbers, so it isn't out of the question that Dallas is going to hold New Orleans down some here. Outside of the Giants, when the Cowboys have faced a team with a winning record the Boys have alllowed 20, 17, 10, and 7 points for just 13.5 ppg. Even adding in the Giants games, they have averaged just 18.1 ppg allowed! New Orleans has a solid defense, allowing 21 points per game this season. With Dallas' offense tanking in the second-half of the season, it's going to take a lot to get over this high total. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 9-2 UNDER after scoring 25+ points in three straight games. This may look like a shootout, but the total is set too high. I like the UNDER.

Want a game in which absolutely no one wants to touch one of the teams? This is it. As of Friday afternoon, a ridiculous 95% of the bets on this game are coming in on the Texans. Heck, St. Louis is 1-12, have lost six in a row and 22 of their last 23 games. They got smashed last game by 40 points with their rookie QB and he's starting again this game. It would take drastic measures to get Joe Public to take the Rams here. But, we're on 'em. Oftentimes when you get a game this apparently lopsided, and a team you couldn't possbly consider touching, that's the team to take. Yes, the Rams are banged-up for sure, but remember that is already reflected in the line. In this case, more than what is justified. The Texans, by virtue of dropping four straight before their home win over Seattle a week ago, are no longer a playoff contender at 6-7. The reason being is that there are only three teams in the AFC with a worse record, so they truly have no chance. Is this team (a losing team) really deserving of laying double-digits on the road? They needed wins for the last month and couldn't get them. Teams in this position often take a conservative approach and find a way to get the win with the least amount of energy expense. That is why home dogs in this range have been moneymakers for years late in the season, posting better than 75% ATS winners. The Texans are also just 1-6 ATS after hanging 30+ on their last opponent. In their history, they are 7-18 ATS off a home win and 6-16 ATS on the road after a win. And, believe it or not, St. Louis isn't quite as ugly as they appear. They aren't a good team, but they have gotten more competitive as the season has gone on. They started the season 2-5 ATS but have since gone 4-2 ATS. I am backing the ugly dog with the points here.

We banked on San Diego last week, taking them as an underdog vs. Dallas. I said last week that line was just off as San Diego was the better team getting a field goal. Well, after that big win (their eighth in a row), there is no shortage of believers. But, after eight straight wins, the last one a big one, the talking heads on TV now have San Diego challenging for the Super Bowl. They hype is at its peak and the value on San Diego is gone. I am well aware of San Diego's superb record in December as they have won 15 straight December games. But that's even more reason to get off this train now. All a streak like that does is pump up the line on the underdog, because the oddsmakers are well aware of public tendencies. It is no surprise that even at the high price, the public loves the Chargers. The Bengals got hammered last week by the Vikings. They had just two drives of over 20 yards. They were exposed, right? Well, I think the Bengals are much better than that and simply had an off day. Not that they would beat Minnesota if they played them again, but they would certainly put up a much better fight. You can bet that they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder here to prove to everyone last week was a fluke. The Bengals have a great defense, allowing fewer points than anyone in the league except the Jets. So, don't expect it to be easy for San Diego to run away from them here. The Bengals are in the role they love as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine posted as a dog. With something to prove here, they are a dangerous team here getting a boost in the line with swelling support for the Chargers. Cincinnati scratches and claws here, leaving it all on the field. I'm riding the Bengals in this one.

Josh Freeman surprised a few teams when he made his first two starts of the season. His team put up 61 points in those games. Then the film came out and defenses began to make the adjustments resulting in a complete stall of the Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs have managed just 33 points in their last four games (8.25 per game). If we remove those two initial Freeman starts from the equation, this team has averaged just 11.7 points per game in the other eleven games! It hasn't exactly been a banner year for the Seahawks’ offense either as they have had their own struggles. They have failed to top the 20-point mark in nine of their 13 games (69% of the time). The Bucs have improved on the defensive side of the ball. The y have faced some meancing offenses this season including Dallas, Philly, New England, Green Bay and New Orleans. Tampa allowed 33.6 points per game vs. these powerhouses. But, against more mediocre offenses including the Giants, Washington, Buffalo, Carolina, Miami, Atlanta and the Jets, Tampa Bay has given up a very respectable 23.5 points per game. Seattle's resume is similar. Versus high-powered offenses Indianapolis, Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota and Houston, they allowed 33.2 points per game. But against all others, they have allowed just just 14.5 points per game! So we offenses that average 14.6 and 19.2 points per game. And, we have defenses that have given up 23.5 and 14.5 per game vs. comparable offenses. The Bucs have played UNDER to a 50-22 mark the last 72 times following a game where they failed to top the 150-yard mark in passing. The history of these clubs shows that the UNDER is the way to go as their last six meetings resulted in UNDERs.

This one is a bit gut-wrenching for sure. I've faded the Panthers more often than not this season as I have felt all season they were overrated, and really a pretty bad team especially with Jake Delhomme the turnover factory at the helm. Well, now the oddsmakers and public have caught up and they are no longer overrated -  maybe the opposite since Delhomme took a seat. Meanwhile, they are playing a team that remains a bit overrated (top 5 team in NFL in + turnovers). The Panthers are a much-improved team since starting 0-3 and losing the three games by a combined 50 points. Yes, they have added five to that loss total, but they have also added five wins. And, the loss margin of 50 points in the first three has turned into just 49 points in their next five losses. The fact is that they have not lost a game by more than 11 points since their poor start. It is likely that Jake Delhomme will not play again for the third straight week (listed as doubtful and no reason to insert him here as he has been terrible). This will be good news as he has been prone to lose games all by himself this season, and the numbers put up by Moore have exceeded what Delhomme has done this season across the board. That creates an opportunity to get extra points in the line, while the results are likely better with the backup QB. Carolina can run the ball as they are averaging 150 yards per gam (4th in the leauge) and 4.8 yards per rush (3rd) and the Vikings are 0-6 under Brad Childress against teams that average 4.5+ yards per rush. The Panthers defense has kept them in games, as they have allowed more than 24 points just once in the last eleven games, and that was 30 to New Orleans. Over those eleven games, the Carolina defense has given up just 19.6 points per game. For Minnesota this is somewhat of a meaningless game. They have all but wrapped up their division and can't win home-field in the playoffs. The result likey just doesn't matter, so expecting their top effort here against a 5-8 opponent just doesn't make sense. The Vikings are 5-13 ATS under Childress after allowing 14 or less points last game. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 37-25 ATS in the dog role and 21-10 ATS after a double-digit loss. Carolina will be more motivated here and Minnesota may be a little fat and happy coming off their big win over Cincinnati. The Vikings have only lost two games this season, but both have come on the road and this is a lot of points to lay on the road. I like Carolina here.

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• View our updated nfl week seven picks.
• Don't forget to read our nfl week 8 picks here.
• Hop over to our week four nfl picks here.
• View our week 2 nfl picks here.
• View nfl picks week 6 here.
• Check out our updated football against-the-spread standings.
• Check out our updated nfl expert pick.
• View our updated football blog.
• View our updated football handicapping service.
• Here we show our week 11 nfl picks.
• Check out nfl picks week 12 here.
• Don't forget to visit our NFL game previews.
• Updated today: nfl week one picks.
• Here we show our week 9 nfl picks.
• Here we show our nfl picks week ten .
• View our updated 2009 NFL predictions-win totals .
• Hop over to our nfl week thirteen picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2009 NFL football season picks.
• Hop over to our Football Game Analysis here.
• Updated today: nfl sports book.
• Updated today: Why to bet NFL underdogs.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week fourteen picks.
• Read our free nfl office pool picks here.
• Check out our updated NFL picks.
• Here we show our NFL football halftime prop bets .
• Updated today: week 5 nfl picks.
• View our NFL playoffs betting guide here.
• Don't forget to visit our Football lines.
• View our week three nfl picks here.
• View picks football here.
• Don't forget to read our nfl picks week 17 here.
• View our updated nfl week 15 picks.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 16 picks.
• View our updated Super Bowl predictions.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-December-14-2009
We were on Arizona big last week. I liked the Cardinals in that spot vs. the then-one loss Vikings. Arizona was coming on and Minnesota was overrated. The Cardinals dominated that game and won outrigh...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-11-2009
The Texans just can't get over the hump. A season of promise as a potential playoff team has yet again failed to meet expectations. One of the reasons is a myriad of injuries with eight players on...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-07-2009
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight to get to 7-4 and appear to have turned a corner. If the season ended today, they would have earned one of the NFL Wildcard spots. With a win to...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-04-2009
The Denver Broncos seem to be one step ahead of the public this season. They scored big upset wins at home vs. the Cowboys, Patriots and last week once again over the Giants. We were on them in a coup...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-30-2009
The New Orleans Saints will try to keep pace with the unbeaten Colts as they host the New England Patriots in a heavyweight match tonight. The oddsmakers opened this game with the Saints as a 3-point ...