We hit with the UNDER on Thursday night (even with 24 points scored in final four minutes) for a good start to the week. No pick on Saturday. For Sunday we have five picks.

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NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: New York Jets at Minnesota (Sunday 12/17 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on UNDER 41

Quick question - who has the 2nd best defense in the NFL? Not many people would answer Minnesota. They just don't come to mind as quickly when thinking defense as does Chicago, Baltimore, Miami or Jacksonville. But they are second giving up just 282 yards per game. Against the run they are tops - by a huge margin. They are giving up just 54 yards per game on the ground. The next closest team is Baltimore allowing 80. The Jets have outperformed expectations this year. They are solidly in the playoff hunt but we aren't completely sold on them being as good as they appear. Their offense is ranked 27th in yards gained. They are average in rushing offense. But against this run defense, they will really struggle. Passing wise, Pennington has a good job but they are still ranked just 23rd in yards gained through the air at 201. Bottom line, when the game is put on Pennington's shoulders, how will he perform? Will he be able to put up a lot of points? We don't think so. Despite their great defense, Minnesota is 5-7 on the yar. Why? Well it can only be on thing - their offense. This team has scored 20 or less in nine of their 12 games. They are facing a pretty bad defense so they may get into the mid to high twenties here but that leaves a lot to come from the Jets - a team with a below average offense facing a great defense. Take the UNDER here.

What a dissapointment. Pittsburgh wins the Super Bowl last year and now sits at 6-7 with no hopes for the playoffs. Carolina was supposed to be this year's Super Bowl representative from the NFC but they also sit at 6-7. We have faded the Panthers a lot this year as we believed them to be overrated from the start. The public was enamored with them for most of the season. Well, after losing their last three in a row, all as a favorite, the public is finally off that train. And it's time for us to jump on. They are officially down-and-out now and we suddenly get line value on them as a three point home underdog. Their offense has been pretty bad all year but their defense remains good (ranked 7th in points allowed). Outside of one one debacle against the Romo-led Dallas Cowboys in week nine, the Panthers have played VERY tough defense at home allowing no more than 19 points twice and averaging 14.5 ppg here. Pittsburgh really has no business laying points on the road here. They have already posted two 0-point road performances this year and they average under 15 ppg. Against good defenses like Carolina's, they posted 0 against Jacksonville, 13 vs. San Diego and 0 against Baltimore! While they have done OK at home, they are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS away from home this year. Carolina has two road games coming up against division rival Atlanta and hot New Orleans. This, their last home game, is their best chance for a feel-good win and we think they will bring it whether Weinke or Delhomme starts. Pittsburgh just hasn't proven themselves on the road and shouldn't be laying points.

The Chicago offense had a surge early behind Grossman, and early on it looked like the Bears were the most complete team in the NFL. The defense has been utterly dominating for two straight years now, and it looked like the offense had caught up. Then Grossman went through some horrible games and the question became, can they win with him at QB? That question still remains unanswered, but the offense has become a bit more conservative while he regains his confidence, allowing the defense to do what they do best. Chicago gave up a bucketload of points last game but that was on the road. At home, this defense is impenetrable. The last 12 Bears home games have seen only one team score more than one TD and five teams score none! Tampa Bay has scored a pathetic 11.6 ppg good for dead last in the NFL. They have managed just one road game this year with more than one TD, and have had three in which they scored none! It has been 174 minutes and 18 seconds since the Bucs found the endzone - almost three full games. It was the first quarter vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Perhaps the Bucs can become the first NFL team in history not to find the endzone from Thanksgiving to X-Mas... stay tuned! We don't believe the Bucs will find the endzone here, nor do we see Chicago scoring 30+ here. Chicago has a resurgent running game, and they will need it in the playoffs, and that will be their focus here. They won last game by making sure Grossman didn't make costly mistakes. Tampa has played UNDER to a tune of 32-15 last 47 on grass, and 35-17 last 52 road games. They don't score, so we will be going UNDER especially in a December game in blustery Chicago.

It has been a tale of two seasons for Tennessee and a tale two locations (home vs. the road) for Jacksonville. Let's start with the Titans. This is a team that started 0-5 and looked like a team that was heading for the top selection in next year's draft. That prompted the appearance of Vince Young in an attempt to gain some valuable experience for next year. Things changed dramatically as Young has proven to be one of the most versatile, clutch performers in an NFL uniform. He has improved week by week and has turned Tennessee into a winner. A team that averaged 12 ppg in its first five games has averaged 23.4 ppg since. It also helped a poor defense to stay off the field and improve. Even the defense which allowed 27 ppg early on is now allowing 22 ppg. Overall a 17 point improvement counting both sides of the ball. The net result has been four straight wins and 6 of 8 with one of the losses by 1 point to Baltimore. Young started slowly completed only 45.7% of his passes through his first seven games. But in his last three he has completed 65%! He has also gained 459 yards and his long run in OT gave the Titans their fourth straight win. Jacksonville is fresh off a 375 yard rushing performance vs. the Colts at home. They are feeling pretty good and they are elite now after last week in the eyes of the public. This is a team that has dominated good opponents at home. They have played four likely playoff teams at home and gone 6-1. They have pounded all comers by scoring 26.4 ppg and giving up just 9.1 ppg. The road has been a completely different story. Away from home they have played just one likely playoff team, stand at 2-4, have been outgained, given up more first downs, and have been outscored 18.7 ppg to 21.2 ppg. Just like the Titans have improved by 17 points a game since week five on both sides of the ball, the Jags are 9 ppg worse on offense on the road and 12 ppg worse on defense. That is a net change of 21 ppg! What makes that more dramatic is they have played four likely playoff teams at home, and just one on the road. It stands to reason they are just 5-12 ATS as a road favorite, and 0-4 ATS after a 14+ point win. When you have a red-hot team that has im proved by 17 points a game, playing a team on the road that is 21 ppg worse than they are at home, and your getting points, you have to ride them.

Here we have two teams headed in vastly different directions. One is improving, at home, and getting points. The other is heading south, is on the road, and laying points. This looks to us to be a reputation line vs. based on what's happening on the field. How else do you explain a team that has gone from 7-2 to 7-6, and coming off a 28 point blowout loss, now laying a field goal on the road with the public favoring the road team? Denver looked like it had a defense to rival that of Chicago earlier in the season, holding opponents to just 7.3 ppg over their first six games. But those of you who have been with us know we never believed it was that superb. How far has Denver fallen? They gave up more points to San Diego last week than all points combined given up in those first six weeks. Their fall from grace wasn't limited to one week though, as Denver has now dropped four in a row and is on a free-fall. That team that gave up 7 ppg has now given up 27 ppg over the last seven. Arizona has been quite the opposite. They were considered a contender at season's onset but soon became a pretender. But like Tennessee, they have emerged behind an installed rookie QB that is finally making strides, and everything else seems to improve around it. Take a look at Edgerrin James. Considered a bust having rushed for just 516 yards on 185 carries in the first half of the season (2.8 ypc), is now clicking along with Leinart. He has topped 100 yards in each of the last two games and has had more yards per carry in each of his past five games than he did in any game in the first half. He is 93 carries for 409 yards in the last five, or about 4.4 ypc. It is the reason Arizona has suddenly won three of four. It's also why their scoring total for each of the last three games is individually higher than any game of their first 10. We will gladly take points on a surging December home team, vs. one in which all the wheels have come off.