Expert Football Free Pick - December 16, 2007

We are adding two late weather plays (UNDERs) in the Jacksonville-Pittsburgh and Buffalo-Cleveland games. The weather is going to be horrendous and we see very few points being scored... 

We're off a losing week as we backed underdogs in a week that saw them cover just four of sixteen games. Strange week? Strange year! Read our take on this Wacky NFL Betting Season below... 

On Tuesday, we posted three special weather related plays that have fit a 70% system for this weekend. We add four more plays to those below...

A Wacky NFL Season - Dogs' Bark Inaudible in 2007

Let me take you back to 2005. The league was comprised of the haves and the have-nots. There were a handful of truly dominant teams: Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, the Giants, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. They all won 11 or more games with two (Indy and Denver) getting to 13+ wins. Every single one of these teams had winning ATS records and combined for a 84-50 ATS record - good for 63% ATS! Overall, favorites hit an all-time record 57% ATS in 2005. How crazy is that? Consider that in recent NFL history (25 years), favorites averaged about 48% ATS and prior to 2005, never finished above 53%!

This (the long-term advantage on underdogs) is one of the reasons that most good NFL handicappers and professional sports bettors focus on the dogs. 2005 was an incredibly tough year for most successful pros. We started off on fire, building a huge bankroll through the preseason and early weeks but struggled down the stretch as the big favorites came through time and time again. We ended up 58% for the year but it was disappointing given our start. 2005 went down as the wackiest NFL season ever, with favorites covering at a clip 19% above their historical average and at an all-time high, crushing the previous high.

2006 returned to "normal" with favorites hitting just 44% ATS. In fact, you could say it was a "correction" year as dogs did better than their historical average. Things appeared to be following the pattern they followed over the past quarter-century with dogs representing the betting value. Most chalked 2005 up to an anomaly vs. the start of a long-term trend. Dog bettors (including this one) sighed a breath of relief.

But then 2007 occurred - and it seems like it's 2005 all over again! There are a handful of teams that are dominating, winning nearly every game and covering every spread, no matter the price. Sound familiar? The Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Jaguars and Patriots are 56-9 (86%) straight up and 47-17 (73%) against the spread! Yes, there are good teams that win a lot of games straight-up every year, but they don't cover the spread at a 70%+ rate. Last year New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Chicago and Baltimore combined for a 64-15 straight up mark, but were just 43-31 (58%) ATS. This year the top teams are covering 73% ATS.

Overall on the year, favorites are hitting at a 54% clip - the second highest of all time, right behind 2005! And over the past four weeks, favorites are covering at the unheard of rate of 68% (42-20). Last week was the pinnacle for favorites as they went 13-3 straight up and 12-4 ATS. Over the past month, home underdogs are 4-21 SU and 6-18-1 ATS.

In the face of those stats, it's very hard or impossible for an underdog bettor to do well. This season most long-term professionals (and the sportsbooks) are struggling while the betting public (who love favorites) is doing unusually well.

So, a familiar question surfaces - one that reared its head in 2005. Is this a short term anomaly or the start of a long-term trend? Will dogs come roaring back (as they have done in 23 of the last 25 years) and even things out? Or will favorites continue to cover at an unheard-of rate? While none of us have a crystal ball, we all have an opinion. But only time will tell. At this point, all we can do is look in awe at what is shaping up to be the second-wackiest NFL betting season in the past quarter-century. If things continue like the past month, it may take over the "wackiest" title from 2005.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Buffalo at Cleveland (Sunday 12/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 37 -110

This is a late addition UNDER play based on weather - fits our 70% system.

The Packers have now clinched their division, and have all but locked up the #2 seed in the playoffs with little hope of overtaking the Cowboys. St. Louis has had a dreadful season, as they got off to an 0-8 start. Bad luck, bad play and untimely multiple injuries left this team in shambles. Stephen Jackson has returned, and the Rams are suddenly 3-2 in their last five games. This week Marc Bulger returns at QB as well. This is far from a team that has quit, and is far from the team that started 0-8. The Rams were out-scored 219-99 in those first eight games (27.4 to 12.4 on average per game). They have since out-scored opponents 107-97. The offensive production has increased nine points per game, allowing the defense to stay off the field, and lower the points allowed by eight points per game. Overall that makes this team 17 points per game better than they were earlier. Despite the problems this team had early, the last four home losses has seen them out-scored by just 1, 3, 7 and 5 points. So even if you chalk a win up here for the Pack, St. Louis isn't likely to get blown out. The Packers have had an amazing season, but injuries have begun to take their toll, including Brett Farve with a bad left shoulder. We can't imagine he plays four quarters here, and we could see them utilizing more personnel to get through this one. St. Louis has been tough at home, and tough overall of late, and we see them staying within this number.

If the season started seven weeks ago, many may be talking about Baltimore the same way they talk about Miami. The question would be, "will this team win a game all season?" Yes, the Ravens have dropped their last seven in a row. The defense has gotten tired and looks old, and the offense still doesn't move the ball. Despite their big loss last week, Miami has been close to breaking through, as they have lost six games by 3 points or less. The schedule has featured just five teams with sub-.500 records, and this will be their best chance all season at a win. They are home, getting a team that has vastly underperformed and is coming off two big high profile opponents to face a winless team. The Ravens are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 on the road, and 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite. Baltimore has the 28th ranked offense, and on the road this offense is horrenous and has been so for years. This year they are scoring 12.8 away from home. Miami has a similar offense overall, but they are home where they are averaging 16.3 points per game. The Ravens defense, while considered superb, ranked 6th in yards allowed, is near the very bottom of the league in points allowed (ranked #26, allowing 24.5 ppg). Miami has given up a ton of points to the league's elite offenses (Dallas, Cleveland, New England), but against everyone else they are allowing 24 ppg. They should be able to keep Baltimore for going nuts here as this will be the worst offense they have faced all season - by a long shot. Don't underestimate the power of fear. After losing last week, and with New England and Cincinnati on deck, the fear of being the first team to go 0-16 is front-and-center for the Dolphins. Whether they admit it or not, this is their best remaining shot of avoiding that disaster. Meanwhile, a very dissapointed Baltimore team (off a 13-3 year, now at 4-9 and in the AFC North cellar) has relatively little motivation to get up for a winless team. We like Miami to pull this one out.

Tennessee has to be reeling after last week. They let one get away after having a 17-3 lead late, and really should of led by more. A 6-2 season that was building momentum off of last season's late success has disappeared. The Titans are now just 1-4 in their last five and look more like the team we saw early last season. The Titans ran off a 13-2 ATS run is now 3-7 ATS in their last 10, and playing poorly. The offense has now produced just 117 points over the last seven games, good for 16.7 ppg. Kansas City has dropped out of the race with six straight losses, the latest a 38 point pasting by Denver. The 41-7 setback was one of the worst-ever performances for a Kansas City offense. Teams have shown the ability to bounce back from these big losses, to actually be a very favorable ATS choice in their next game. The Chiefs remain 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record, and we will back them to rise at home, behind the motivation that comes from a game like last week's.

This game is likely to be played in blizzard conditions, with winds up to 60 MPH. It is unlikely 40 points will be scored in this game, so the UNDER is a very high percentage play, and the 24 points given to the Jets will be nearly impossible to cover.

This pick was an early newsletter release on Wednesday based on severe expected line movement in three games due to horrible weather conditions that will be present on Sunday. We have all seen these games when the word gets out, and the totals bottom out. We expect three games to qualify this week. We recommend playing these games immediately, as the window of opportunity will begin to close. We are on this early, based on a system we have developed designed around certain bad-weather conditions. These games meet the threshhold criteria that has proved to produce over 70% winners over many years.

Jacksonville has it going on both sides of the ball now. The offense is clicking, and has not produced less than 24 points in any of the last seven games, and they have now covered five straight. You don't have to look much further than David Garrard, the most underrated QB in the NFL. All he has done is pass to a 103.3 QB rating, thrown just one INT all season. He has emerged as one of the leagues best, while staying relatively under the radar. His play has opened up running lanes for Taylor and Jones-Drew to the tune of 1,600 yards rushing, and a combined 4.7 ypc. Ben Roethlisberger is a game-time decision with a sore shoulder, and the weather is likely to be a factor as well. The Steelers offense which was playing good early but has hit the wall as they have produced just 56 points the last four weeks, or only 14ppg. The history resides on the side of Jacksonville as well, as when two teams that have a 67% winning percentage or higher square off after week 13, the underdog has emerged with the cover 62% of the time. Teams that are a favorite after playing New England are just 6-13 ATS over the last 19 games, with nine straight-up losses. We will ride the hot Jags here. The total is a late add weather play on the UNDER that fits our 70% system.

This game will be played with winds gusting to 60 MPH and either heavy rain, snow, or sleet. The total fits a 70% system for the under. Play as early as possible.

This pick was an early newsletter release on Wednesday based on severe expected line movement in three games due to horrible weather conditions that will be present on Sunday. We have all seen these games when the word gets out, and the totals bottom out. We expect three games to qualify this week. We recommend playing these games immediately, as the window of opportunity will begin to close. We are on this early, based on a system we have developed designed around certain bad-weather conditions. These games meet the threshhold criteria that has proved to produce over 70% winners over many years.

Results: 6-3

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Check out NFL against-the-spread records here.
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• Take a look at our 2007 NFL season win totals here.
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• Here we show our NFL prior predictions.
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• Read our 2007 NFL football prior picks here.
• Don't forget to read our halftime prop bets here.
• Read our this years super bowl picks here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-December-08-2007
Dallas is sitting pretty. They are 11-1, having won six in a row and they just nailed their most important win of the season over their only real threat in their conference (Green Bay). The Cowboys ho...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-03-2007
This is another weather play for us. The winds in Baltimore for tonight's game are forecast to be 25-30 MPH sustained, with gusts to 50 MPH. This means no kicking game, no passing game, and a lot ...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-30-2007
The Niners put up 37 points last week which was more points than they put up in the last four games they have played combined! Is the Niner offense back? Hardly! Trent Dilfer had a career ga...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-29-2007
It's an NFC showdown that dreams are made of in Dallas as the 10-1 Green Bay Packers face off against the 10-1 Cowboys in a game that will likely go a long way towards deciding homefield...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-26-2007
At first glance this looks like an easy decisive Pittsburgh win. They are coming off a loss and playing a winless team. It sure looks easy right? Not in our eyes. What motivation does this Pittsburgh ...