Football Picks Vs The Spread - December 14, 2009

After three killer weeks in a row, we took a hit yesterday going 3-6, dropping us to 60% (35-23) in the second half of the season. Three of those games yesterday (New Orleans total, Kansas City, Chicago) could have gone either way but all three went against us. That's how it goes sometimes. We look to recoup some of the losses with a pick tonight in a game I really like.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Arizona at San Francisco (Monday 12/14 8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +3.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

We were on Arizona big last week. I liked the Cardinals in that spot vs. the then-one loss Vikings. Arizona was coming on and Minnesota was overrated. The Cardinals dominated that game and won outright as an underdog. The nation watched and the talk since has been how good Arizona really is. Now, it is the Cardinals that risk the "overrated" tag. The public has lined up on the Cardinals here to the tune of 80% and they've pushed the line from -3 to -3.5. That was a huge statement game for Arizona last week and they were ready for it. This "hangover" game against the 5-7 Niners doesn't carry the same significance. This sets up to be a good spot for the Niners, as they catch Arizona in a logical flat spot, coming off the huge emotional statement game at home. The Cards, at 8-4, have all but locked up the division, and have no reason to bring their best game here. The 49ers have turned things around a bit. Mike Singletary changed the offense to the spread, which has been more aligned with the skill set of Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has responded by throwing for close to 800 yards and seven TD's and just one INT in the last three games. He has also been sacked just once in the last two games. With the addition of Michael Crabtree to the offense, along with the Pro Bowl caliber play of TE Vernon Davis, and RB Frank Gore coming out of the backfield, he has some weapons to throw to. This is a big game for San Francisco. Going back two years ago, the Buffalo Bills had a chance to host a Monday Night game for the first time in a long while, and gave Dallas fits as a huge dog. The same can be said about Houston hosting the Jags on Monday Night, winning by 13. Now the Niners get their first Monday Nighter since week 1 of 2007. Historically, the Cards have not done well in this spot, as they are just 7-21 ATS in their last 28 on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Arizona has revenge here, but good teams (.500 or better) seeking same season revenge vs. teams with a less than .600 winning percentage does not translate, as they have covered just over 40% of the time in the last 190+ tries. While the Monday Night home dog has fared poorly overall in recent years, this is one situation in which they have continued to thrive. Monday Night Football divisional home dogs with less than a .500 record are a highly profitable 17-4 ATS. I like the Niners plus the points.

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 7 picks.
• Read our week eight nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week four picks.
• Hop over to our week two nfl picks here.
• Hop over to our nfl week six picks here.
• Updated today: football ATS records.
• Check out our updated expert nfl pick .
• Don't forget to read our football picks blog here.
• View our updated nfl handicapping service.
• Don't forget to visit our week eleven nfl picks.
• View nfl week 12 picks here.
• View our NFL matchups here.
• Here we show our nfl picks week 1.
• View nfl picks week nine here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week ten picks.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NFL team over-under predictions here.
• View our nfl week thirteen picks here.
• View 2009 NFL football prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our Football Game-of-Week-Preview.
• Don't forget to visit our football sports book.
• Here we show our NFL betting philosophy.
• Take a look at our nfl week fourteen picks here.
• Updated today: nfl pool picks.
• Read our NFL picks here.
• View our NFL halftime bets here.
• View our nfl week 5 picks here.
• Read our Win in the NFL playoffs here.
• View our updated NFL odds.
• Don't forget to read our nfl picks week three here.
• Hop over to our weekly nfl predictions here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl picks week 17.
• Take a look at our nfl week 15 picks here.
• Check out week sixteen nfl picks here.
• Read our How to bet the Super Bowl here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-December-11-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-December-07-2009
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight to get to 7-4 and appear to have turned a corner. If the season ended today, they would have earned one of the NFL Wildcard spots. With a win to...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-04-2009
The Denver Broncos seem to be one step ahead of the public this season. They scored big upset wins at home vs. the Cowboys, Patriots and last week once again over the Giants. We were on them in a coup...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-30-2009
The New Orleans Saints will try to keep pace with the unbeaten Colts as they host the New England Patriots in a heavyweight match tonight. The oddsmakers opened this game with the Saints as a 3-point ...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-27-2009
Yes, the Redskins are in shambles. They have a lame duck head coach and they can't score. They are coming off a game in which they scored 6 poitns. This all makes them a good team to consider back...