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Free Pro Football Picks - December 14, 2008
 Today's NFL Football Picks: This is an extremely interesting line. We have the team with the NFL's best record facing a team with a losing record. The better team won the first matchup of the season 31-12. Yet the 12-1 team is just a field-goal favorite to the losing team? Think back as far as you can go. Do you ever remember a scenario like that, this late in the season? I sure don't. That says one of two things to me. Either the books are begging for everyone to pile on Tennessee because they really think Houston will cover. Or the Titans, in the eyes of the books, just aren't as good as their 12-1 record would indicate. There is likely truth to both. As mentioned, Tennessee beat Houston 31-12 early in the season. It looks like a runaway, but the reality is the Texans were down 24-12 knocking on the door late, and Schaub threw a pick-6 that went 99 yards the other way for a 31-12 finish. So what finished as a 19 point difference could have easily been a 5 point margin. The Texans also decided to go for two 4th and 1's and came up empty, eschewing the FG's. So what if they put the FG's on the board, and punched the TD in instead of a pick-6 the other way? Texans 25 - Titans 24. Monday morning QB's don't win any money from Sunday, but they sure help you find the truth behind the stats. At 6-7, the Texans have had a few slip away like this, but are now playing as good as anyone. Steve Slayton ran for 118 yards in that first game, and he has become part of the passing attack for the Texans now (37 catches) as well. The Texans sold out to the run in that game and held Tennessee to less than 4 yards per attempt, and Collins still could only put up pedestrian numbers. The yardage and first downs were just about even, despite Houston's negative turnover margin in the game. And that game was in Tennessee. Houston has established a strong homefield advantage going 12-4 in their last 16 games, despite never having had a winning season, and they are 6-1 ATS last seven as a home dog, winning five of those straight up! The Titans have all but wrapped up homefield advantage, and they clinched the division last week, so what incentive do they have here? Especially after already owning a "big" win vs. Houston this season? We have motivation our side, against an overrated team. I'll take Houston as a very live dog here! Game: Seattle at St. Louis (Sunday 12/14 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 42 -110 What can be said about the Rams offense? It's simply as inept as it gets. They made it into the end-zone once last week. And that was an improvement! Over the four previous weeks combined, they managed to find their way into the end-zone an equal amount of times, just once! That TD last week came as a gift, as they were trailing the 49ers by 35-9 with the Rams having the ball for the last time, and San Francisco's prevent defense allowed the Rams to move downfield for what would be their only TD in a month. So we have a total in the 40s, and one team has scored two touchdowns in their last five weeks of play. That might be good if the Oklahoma Sooners were an NFL franchise and playing on the other side in this one, but it's not against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle hasn't found themselves in the end-zone much themselves this season. Their offense may look good compared to the Rams, but that is just speaking in relative terms. The Seahawks are scoring just 15.5 ppg in their last six games. It may take these teams playing twice to reach this total, and I'll back the only way you can play this one, UNDER. Game: Washington at Cincinnati (Sunday 12/14 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) The Redskins are in a fight for their playoff lives, and Cincinnati has nothing left to play for - except spoiler. Washington has not been able to beat any team this season by more than 8 points. Their seven wins have come by the narrowest of margins: 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8. But it's a must win for them against a terrible team, right? Let's not forget that they have needed a win the last two weeks as well, and haven't been able to get it. After a 6-2 start, they have really slipped as they are now 1-4 in their last five games. Cincinnati hasn't done a lot on the season, but they rose as a 9-point underdog to Jacksonville at home and won the game outright. They gave the Eagles everything they could handle as a 9.5 point dog at home, finishing in a 13-13 tie. Washington's strength is on the ground, behind Clinton Portis. But, the Bengals have actually done well against the run, surprisingly ranked 11th in the league. The Eagles and Brian Westbrook managed just 68 yards rushing against Cincy, and had a full five quarters to do it in. The Redskins just haven't shown enough offense to put teams away all season. It seems that no matter who they play, if they get a win (even against the winless Lions), they have to struggle in the process. This is a lot of points to serve up to a team that hasn't proven all season long they are deserving of being a TD chalk. I'll grab the Bengals here to stay close. Game: Green Bay at Jacksonville (Sunday 12/14 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 45.5 -110 These two teams certainly had designs on the playoffs when the season started. Both have evolved into candidates for "most dissapointing" team of the year. And it's only getting worse, not better. The Jags have now lost six of their last seven, and the Packers have now lost five of their last six. The Jags look like a team that has quit, or at least had their confidence shaken, especially on the offensive end. They simply have no downfield threat to exploit what has turned into a Packers weakness, the secondary. The Jags offense has been bad, scoring just 53 points in the last four weeks. In over two months of football, they have reached 20 points just once, against the 0-13 Lions. Aaron Rodgers may be hitting the wall for the Packers. As the pressure has mounted on him to carry the team, he has faltered. He threw just five INT's in his first nine games, but has now thrown six in the last four games. The Packers have been able to get their points, but they have been doing so playing from behind. It is more likely that Ryan Grant will be called upon more here, as the Jags offense isn't doing anything, and the Packers can play the running game to take the pressure off of Rogers. I look for this one to be tight, and low scoring. The Jags have played eight of their last eleven as a home dog to the UNDER, and that gets the call here. Game: Detroit at Indianapolis (Sunday 12/14 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Detroit +17 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: San Diego at Kansas City (Sunday 12/14 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 45.5 -110 The Chiefs have been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past year and a half. How bad have have they been? Kansas City is now 2-20 in their last 22 games. The biggest reason is they have a very inept offense with no downfield weapons, and an aging and oft-injured featured running back in Larry Johnson. It has heavily contributed to their inability to win, as the offense over this 22-game stretch has managed to put up just 16.2 ppg. The Chargers looked like their offense was revived back at the beginning of the season, as they scored 138 points in their first four games (34.5 ppg). It has been a very different story since then. This "high-octane" offense has actually been producing under the NFL average over the last nine weeks, putting up 20.7 ppg. What has happened is the Chargers defense has taken charge and is playing superb, allowing just 18.7 ppg over the last 10 games. So we are left with an above average total in a game that features two offenses that are struggling at much below the NFL average team, with the Chargers playing above average on defense. We also have teams that played UNDER in their first game this season, and in six of their last eight meetings. I'll play on the valued side here, which is the UNDER. Game: Denver at Carolina (Sunday 12/14 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 I talk about it nearly every week, but no one (at least not the oddsmakers) is listening! Denver is NOT an offensive powerhouse! They are not even above-average. The Broncos look like they won't shed the image they created by opening the season with a 38 ppg average in the first three weeks. They have since played ten times to an average of 20.2 ppg, which is below the average NFL team. At the same time, the defensive issues they had early may have played themselves out as they have held three of their last four opponents to 20 or less points. The Panthers have been solid defensively all season at home, where they are allowing 14.4 ppg in seven appearances on their home turf. Denver has been easy to run on, and with DeAngelo Williams emerging as one of the top backs in the NFL, look for Carolina to run the ball a lot in this one in an effort to keep the clock running and limit the opportunities for Jay Cutler and the Denver offense. Fresh in the minds of the betting public is Carolina's 38-point performance on Monday Night against a good Tampa defense. Prior to that they put up 35 vs. Green Bay. But, teams rarely put up elite performances three straight weeks. Carolina has gone 8-0 in their last eight home games to the UNDER vs a team with a winning road record, and 10-4 overall in their last 14 at home. I look for their defense to deliver another UNDER in this one as well. Game: New England at Oakland (Sunday 12/14 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Oakland +7 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) The Patriots are certainly not the team they were last season. The absence of Tom Brady is the obvious difference and what was a perfect record last season has turned into an 8-5 mark so far this year. They still however get to much respect from their past success, as they have been a favorite in 12 of their 14 games this season. The problem is that Brady makes a HUGE difference, not a small one. He covers up other weaknesses that have exposed themselves this year. The Pats are not a bad team by any stretch, but the spreads are out-of-whack. The Patriots have been big chalk of a TD or more four times this season, and have not covered once. The fact is, they are failing to cover these games by 13 ppg! Last week their defense made Seneca Wallace look like a Pro Bowl QB, as he was 20-28 with three TDs and no picks, posting a QB rating of 128.9. Matt Cassel had two big weeks where he threw for six TDs and just one INT, and over 400 yards in each. But, the Patriots even lost one of those games. Most of what Cassel has done this year occured in those two games, and another where he threw three TD passes. All the other games combined show him at five TDs and nine INTs. So he has been very good in three games, and fairly bad in 10. Which Cassel shows up here? I'll put more weight on the ten games than the three. On top of that, he has had to deal with the death of his father this week, missing some practice. The Patriots defense allows over 4 ypc to opponents ground attacks and a 47.5% conversion rate on 3rd downs. This is not a team that should be laying large spreads, especially on the road. I know, no one wants to touch Oakland. The Raiders haven't won many games, but they have played better recently, winning on the road at Denver by 21, and covering two of their last three games as a double-digit dog. The Patriots are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after a straight up win, and just 1-7 ATS vs teams with a losing record. I'll go with the Raiders here and the points at home. Game: New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday 12/14 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on New York Giants +3 (-115) (risk 4 to win 3.5) The 11-2 Giants will take the field on Sunday as an underdog for just the third time this season. The first two times, New York won the games outright as they seem to relish the role of the underdog, playing the "no respect" card to a tee. They have now won seven of their last eight games outright when listed as an underdog, including six in a row! They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a dog. Eli Mnning is quietly having a very good year. While you hear more about the Giants three-headed running attack, Manning has put up 20 TD passes to just 8 INTs while throwing for over 2,700 yards. The Cowboys secondary looks as though it will be without Pacman Jones the rest of the year, and is otherwise banged up. It's hard to imagine Manning won't put up good numbers in this one. Their is also the video from last week showing Owens going off at the offensive coordinator of Dallas. Controversy and turmoil is brewing in the Dallas lockeroom and that is never a good thing. With Marion Barber not playing or playing hurt against the Giants 5th ranked rushing defense, Tony Romo is going to be under pressure the entire game, as the Cowboys could find themselves facing unfavorable 3rd down situations. That doesn't bode well for Romo. While he's been a top QB since he took over the starting role in Dallas, thus far he has shown the inability to get it done in big games. His "showtime" numbers tell a story. In games played from December 1st on (the money games in the NFL), Romo has led the Cowboys to a 4-9 SU record and a futile 1-9-2 ATS mark. As Romo goes, so do the Cowboys. We have one team here that has dominated as an underdog, and another that has shown the inability to get the money in the big game. I'll back the G-men here. Results: 6-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-December-11-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-08-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-07-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-04-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-01-2008 |
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