Nfl Sports Picks - December 13, 2009

We have now gone 8-3, 7-3 and 7-2 in the last three weeks in the NFL. Since the start of the second half of the season we are 32-17 (65%) for +36.4 units. This Sunday we go with nine picks...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	32-17 last 49 picks	65%	+$3640
CFB	4-1 last 5 picks	80%	+$780
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	13-10 last 23 picks	57%	+$580
NBA	8-2 last 10 picks	80%	+$1630
NHL	129-73 last 202 picks	64%	+$13720
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$34210

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Seattle at Houston (Sunday 12/13 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Seattle +7 (-115) (risk 4 to win 3.5)

The Texans just can't get over the hump. A season of promise as a potential playoff team has yet again failed to meet expectations. One of the reasons is a myriad of injuries with eight players on IR including Steve Slayton. Now QB Matt Schaub has a shoulder injury and will likely play, but how well? With a lot of dinged-up players and with playoff hopes down the tubes, you have to wonder if a team that was 5-3 with everything looking good, has any reason to put forth a big effort here. They needed to win the last two weeks and couldn't get it done, so what would make them interested in this one? The Seahawks have won two straight for the first time all season and are playing inspired football right now. Matt Hasselbeck is playing well and can keep the Hawks in this one. The Seahawks have not been up to the level of the good teams, as they have been blown out by the likes of Indy, Arizona, Dallas and Minnesota this year. But they have fared very well vs. losing teams including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. such teams. The hobbling Texans have had just one game in their last six which would have beaten this number and at this point physically and emotionally, laying nearly a TD against anyone doesn't bode well for them. Houston is just 1-4 ATs at home this season and I like Seattle to make that 1-5.

The Dolphins really showed something last week. Their season was on the line as they found themselves down 14-0 to the Patriots and could have mailed it in. What a turn of events. First-year QB Chad Henne was found leading the game-winning, fourth-quarter drives while Tom Brady was getting picked off. Henne gives the Dolphins some needed balance to compliment the power running game and wildcat. The Jags are surging and have won five of their last seven and seven of their last 10, but are they for real? I am not convinced. When you look at the seven wins, not a single one of them came vs. a team with a winning record. And, in the last five wins, four came by three points or less, with the largest margin of victory just five points! It would make sense that a rejuvenated Dolphin's team will present the toughest challenge that the Jags have seen since week two. They haven't exactly been collecting a lot of money at home as they have now gone 0-9 ATS in their last nine as a home favorite and 1-11 ATS when giving points the past two seasons. They are also 2-9 ATS since last season when coming off a win. Meanwhile the Dolphins are stepping-up big going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a road dog. They are also 7-0 ATS the past three years on the road vs. teams with winning records and 8-1 ATS on the road after a win. The Dolphins are the better team getting points here.

The Atlanta Falcons have a tall order in this one vs. the Saints. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons allowed just shy of 900 yards passing to the likes of a hobbled Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb without DeSean Jackson, and Josh Freeman. What can Drew Brees and the Saints do to this team? Let's whip out the calculators. Ok class, ready? The Saints are going over 30 points per game with absolute regularity. In fact, they have scored 30+ in nine of their games and average 36.7 per game. They have scored 14 points per game more, on average, than their opponents give up on average. With Atlanta giving up 28+ points in five of their last seven games, allowing 29 ppg on average in those games, it's not unreasonable to expect 40+ from the Saints here. At the same time, the Saints have allowed 20+ in two-thirds of their games. They allowed the lowly Redskins' offense a season-high 30 a week ago, and allowed Atlanta 27 in the first meeting. I think all Atlanta has to do is get to 14 here and this one goes over the total, and be it Ryan or Redman, I don't see that being a problem as seven of the Saints’ last eight opponents have scored 17 or more. The Saints are now 37-24 OVER under Sean Payton including 25-12 OVER after a win. They are 22-10-1 to the OVER in their last 33 games, and 10-1 to the OVER in their last 11 December games. They are also 18-8 OVER the past three seasons when coming off a win and 14-5 OVER afer scoring 30+ last game. The Falcons have cruised past the total to a 10-3 mark in their last 13 as a home dog, and with the last four in this series playing OVER the total.

The Baltimore Ravens simply haven't been the same defensive giant they were a year ago, and the offense has really struggled of late. Put it all together and we have a team here that is 3-6 in their last nine games. Yet, they are a two-TD favorite? Yes, I know it's the Lions, but they were a 14-point dog at Green Bay who just beat the Ravens by 13, and after going 3-6 and losing to the Pack by two TDs, the oddsmakers are saying that they are still on equal footing to a team like Green Bay? I’m not buying it. The Lions should do a better job of ball control here with Daunte Culpepper at QB as he does not throw interceptions at the rate of rookie Matthew Stafford (20 INTs in 10 games). It has been a tougher go the second time around for Joe Flacco. After a phenomenal rookie season, his QB rating is lower, and he has already thrown more INTs this year than all of last season. The Ravens own just two wins by this amount in the last nine weeks and an offense that was producing a lot of points has sharply declined. This was a team averaging 28.4 points per game through their first seven games but in their last five, just 15.2 ppg. That is a drop-off of almost two TDs per game and they’re being asked to cover two TDs here. Detroit is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games following a double-digit defeat. They are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games following back-to-back offensive stinkers (14 or less points scored).  The value goes to the Lions, so I will take them with the bundle of points here.

This Buffalo team may not have enough players to finish the season as the injuries continue to mount. They already have eight players on IR and eight more on the injury report that are questionable or worse for Sunday's game. The Chiefs’ offense should get a boost as WR Dwayne Bowe returns from serving a suspension. The Chiefs beat the Steelers here, then fell flat the past two weeks. After two huge losses, I would expect this team to come out at home and bring it for this one, knowing that they have a good shot at a win here. They also have the memory of the Bills 54-point blitz on them here a year ago and that has left a bitter taste - something that doesn't dissipate quickly. For that reason, this has been a circled game for the Chiefs, if not officially, at least in the minds of the players who were embarrased last year. Believe it or not, the Chiefs outgained the Bills in that game! The Bills, injuries and all, are getting the bulk of the betting action, but I see a team in the Chiefs that seems to be able to rise up when needed. It’s hard to see Buffalo as interested as they were in the last two against division rivals the Jets and Dolphins. The Chiefs, as bad as they have been recently, have feasted on poor defenses. They are 8-1 ATS since last season vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game (the Bills allow 360 per game). They are also 6-0 ATS over that span after allowing 25+ points in back-to-back games. Buffalo is a 4-8 team (2-5 on the road) that is scoring just 16.6 points per game and simply shouldn't be a near pick'em on the road. The Chiefs look for payback and I think they get it.

The Packers have positioned themselves to be a wildcard playoff entry in the NFC thanks to four straight wins. How are they doing it? Certainly Aaron Rodgers is playing well, and the defense has been stout, especially against the run. But, this has as much to do about luck as skill. The Packers are +18 in the turnover battle, which makes it so much easier to win when you’re getting about +1.5 per game. During their recent win streak they have had the turnover edge in every game as the four opponents handed the ball to the Packers 13 times! The combined record of the four teams they bear is 21-27, with only one of those four teams owning a winning record. So, what looks like a nice, powerful late-season run doesn't look so hot once you get an average of 3.25 turnovers per game against mediocre competition. The Bears’ Jay Cutler has unfortunately been a turnover machine himself. He has been intercepted 20 times already this season. The good news for the Bears is that they have been a better team at home (4-2) than the Packers have been on the road (3-2) and the big reason is Cutler. He has thrown a total of 17 interceptions on the road, but just three at home, and one of those was a Hail Mary before the end of the half. So, he has done a much better job of ball security at home. The Bears had lost four straight and desperately needed a win last week, even if it was St. Louis just to get the mental edge back. This is a big rivalry and the Bears have been in every game here but one this year, and have only lost two games in the last 2+ years here by more than four points. Given the rivalry and the spoiler opportunity, the Bears won't be mailing this one in and with Cutler taking care of the ball at home, I like Chicago here plus the points.

I said it last week and I'll say it again. The Titans are overrated right now. They reeled off five straight wins after the return of Vince Young. Suddenly Vince Young is a great QB and the Titans are the 13-3 team from 2008. I aint buying it. The reality is that this team is 5-7. In their five wins, they benefitted from a lot of luck. They got an 8-3 positive turnover margin vs. weak competition. They beat Jacksonville thanks to a +2 turnover margin. They beat San Francisco thanks to a +4 turnover margin. They also beat two losing teams in Buffalo and Houston. You could say the one quality win they had was over Arizona, but remember, they needed a miracle 99-yard drive and last second TD to avoid what should have been a loss. The 13-3 Titans team from last year had eight double-digit wins and was beating up everyone. This Titans team has a total of two on the season and, because of a five-game winning streak, they are now being treated like last year's team, laying very heavy wood. While things have certainly changed since their 0-6 start, Tennessee hasn't changed as much as people think and they have not scored more than 20 points in their last three games. The Rams are certainly not a good football team, but they have been a lot more competitive of late. In the first half of the season, they lost games by 28, 19, 35, 28 and 36 points. But in the second half, they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points and they have gone 4-1 ATS in the process. That includes games against high-octane offenses like New Orleans and Arizona! St. Louis was a 14-point dog to the 11-0 Saints four weeks ago. Now they are getting similar points from the Titans? Think about how overrated that makes Tennessee. This is also apt to be a running game with the Titans giving Chris Johnson a lot of carries as he tries to eclipse the NFL rushing mark, and the Rams biggest offensive threat is Steven Jackson on the ground. With the clock churning a lot, it makes two TDs a hard number to topple in a shortened game. I like the Rams here.

The Chargers are arguably playing as well as any team in the league right now. New Orleans and Indianapolis are grabbing the headlines thanks to perfect play all season. But, few have noticed that the Chargers have reeled off seven wins in a row by a combined score of 218-106. That's a winning margin of over two touchdowns per game! That's at least as good as New Orleans or Indianapolis and do you think either of those teams would be instilled as an underdog here? The under-appreciated Phillip Rivers is a good part of the reason this team is playing at such a high level. He has a QB rating of 105 and has thrown 21 TDs to just 5 INTs, yet he doesn't get the ink like the other top QBs. The Cowboys have the marquee name and the name QB with Tony Romo, but they are just 1-4 vs. teams with a winning record this season. The fact is that they aren't as good as their record. This is a team that has already lost four games outright as a favorite this season, and San Diego is a very loud barking dog here - one that is 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 when getting points. Dallas' December woes are now known to all. The Cowboys have a penchant for fading late in the season and are just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 December games including 1-9-2 in week 14, which usually begins the home stretch of the season in December. This is a good matchup for the Chargers who thrive against good offensive teams like Dallas. San Diego is 8-1 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that average over 5.5 yards per play. They are also 15-4 ATS over that span when coming off back-to-back wins. Here we get to grab the superior team getting points.  I also like the UNDER here. San Diego has held their last seven opponents to just 15 points per game. Those opponents weren't as good offensively as the Cowboys, but Dallas' offfense that was steaming in the early season, has cooled of late. Dallas has managed just 15.5 points per game in their last four games. They have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games and that came in an OT game. Over those ten games, Dallas has averaged just 15.9 points per game. So we have two teams that over 7-10 games have each averaged less than 16 points per game allowed, yet this total is set very high at 48.5. This one goes to the Chargers and the UNDER.

Results: 3-6

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• View our updated nfl picks week seven .
• View nfl week 8 picks here.
• Here we show our nfl picks week 4.
• Here we show our week 2 nfl picks.
• Read our nfl picks week six here.
• Don't forget to read our NFL ATS standings here.
• Check out expert picks here.
• View our updated blog nfl picks.
• Don't forget to read our football handicappers here.
• Here we show our nfl picks week 11.
• Updated today: nfl picks week twelve .
• Check out our updated NFL matchups and analysis.
• Take a look at our week one nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl picks week 9.
• Take a look at our week ten nfl picks here.
• Check out 2009 NFL team over-under predictions here.
• Updated today: nfl week thirteen picks.
• Take a look at our 2009 NFL pick results here.
• Take a look at our Football Game Analysis here.
• Updated today: football sportsbook.
• Updated today: How we pick NFL winners .
• Hop over to our nfl week fourteen picks here.
• Hop over to our football picks pool here.
• View our NFL football prior picks here.
• View our NFL halftime prop bets here.
• View our updated nfl picks week 5.
• Don't forget to visit our NFL playoffs betting guide.
• Hop over to our NFL odds and lines here.
• Don't forget to read our week 3 nfl picks here.
• View our updated nfl free football picks.
• Hop over to our week seventeen nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to read our nfl week 15 picks here.
• Read our week sixteen nfl picks here.
• Check out Superbowl predictions here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-December-07-2009
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight to get to 7-4 and appear to have turned a corner. If the season ended today, they would have earned one of the NFL Wildcard spots. With a win to...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-04-2009
The Denver Broncos seem to be one step ahead of the public this season. They scored big upset wins at home vs. the Cowboys, Patriots and last week once again over the Giants. We were on them in a coup...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-30-2009
The New Orleans Saints will try to keep pace with the unbeaten Colts as they host the New England Patriots in a heavyweight match tonight. The oddsmakers opened this game with the Saints as a 3-point ...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-27-2009
Yes, the Redskins are in shambles. They have a lame duck head coach and they can't score. They are coming off a game in which they scored 6 poitns. This all makes them a good team to consider back...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-25-2009
The Lions have not won or covered a Thanksgiving Day game in the last five seasons. In those games, their offense has been atrocious. They have scored 10 points or less in four of the last five. They ...