darrell,

A dissapointing Sunday as we went 3-4 and 13-16 on a unit-basis. Tonight we have a pick to get some back.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit $100 per unit players have made $7,881 $500 per unit players have made $39,405 $1000 per unit players have made $78,810 View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Chicago at St. Louis (Monday 12/11 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago -6.5

St. Louis has to be the worst of any teams to have won five games this season. If you look at them staistically, perhaps you will not arrive at that conclusion. But if you look at them the way we did, you'll see a different picture. We need a good reason to go against a Monday Night home dog and we think we have found it. Let's start by examining the five wins that the Rams have managed this season. It begins with a win vs. Denver 18-10. In that game they were +5 in turnovers and still couldn't get in the endzone. They win by just 8 points having been given five more possessions. In their second victory, they win the battle of turnovers against Arizona when the Cards could not get out of their own way. St. Louis is again +2 in the turnover battle yet struggle to a small 3-point victory against a bad team. Then St. Louis finishes +3 in turnovers vs. Detroit at home. Detroit is among the bottom 5 teams in the NFL! Yet St. Louis still trails in the game with six minutes left, before pulling it out. Then St. Louis faces another less-than-great team in Green Bay and again they go +2 in turnovers. The result? A blowout? No - they squeak out a 3 point win. Next win - another sub .500 opponent in San Francisco. Again, the Rams win the turnover battle - this time +2. The Rams again squeeze out another 3 point win. Those are their wins. The losses also give us some clues. In week 11 they win the turnover battle again vs. another sub-.500 team (Carolina) and can't even score, losing 15-0. Later they are +1 vs. Seattle and additionally get an 89 yard fumble recovery for a TD, and still lose the game. So they have five wins vs. teams that are mostly horrible, had a +14 turnover margin in those games, and won by a total of 22 points! When they have had a plus turnover margin against good teams, they have lost by an average of 8.5 ppg. This is a game against a superb Bears team and the play of St. Louis tells us that we can even survive a bad game by Grossman and the Bears offense tonight. Chicago is a better team than the Rams have lost to even with the plus turnover advantage. To add icing to the cake, Bulger comes into this game with bruised ribs and a couple hits will have him looking over his shoulder. Tory Holt has a bad hamstring, so he may not have that extra gear that makes him special. There are a host of other injuries on the Rams. The Bears were humiliated at Arizona on a Monday Night, and they will want to show the nation what they are really like tonight. Yes, St. Louis has 5 wins, but when you dig down into them, they are not even as good as a five-win team, even with the right bounces. Take Da Bears.