What a week last week as went 15-2 on a unit basis! We won 4 out of 5 bets as $100 per-unit players banked $1,280 in profit on the weekend. This Sunday there are seven games we like.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Sunday 12/10 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Jacksonville +2

We've faded the Colts in both of their losses this year and we look for the hatrick here. Indianapolis enters this game with their typical good 10-2 record, while Jacksonville enters at 7-5. It is certainly a bigger game for Jacksonville as they make their final push for the playoffs, and a home loss here would put them in serious jeopordy of not making it. Tony Dungy has shown again he cares little about the regular season record. The Colts have not shown nearly the same explosiveness as they have in the past few years. This time last year they had already scored 30+ in a game seven times and had a streak of 9 in a row of 26 or more. It seems without a running game, and without being able to stop the run, it has put an extra burden on this offense to be consistently explosive. When they don't get that massive offense this year, they lose. They have been held to 17 or less in three of the past four games. They have had just two games vs. teams in the top 25% in the league in yards allowed per game and have managed just 17.5 ppg. Here they face a defense that is #3 in the leauge in yards allowed, #2 in yards per play and #4 in scoring defense. The biggest problem for the Colts, however, is their defense. Indianapolis is a league worst when it comes to allowing opponents to convert 3rd downs at 47.9%. They have also allowed 9 of 11 4th down conversions. The two combined means that teams are allowing opponents to convert over 50% in these situations. It translates into 20.1 first downs a game, and near the bottom of the league in yards per play at 5.5. Jacksonville's defense, as good as it is overall, absolutely excels at home. It has actually been a better defensive team at home than the high profile Bears. The last five games here, they have given up 3 touchdowns and just 30 points, or 6 ppg. They have outscored their last five opponents at home by 123-30! Jacksonville stands 5th in the league in allowing just 5.20 points per 100 yards gained. These top five teams stand 9-3-1 ATS this year as an underdog! Simply put, the wrong team is favored. Look for the Jags to hand the Colts their third loss in four games.

Did Atlanta turn its season around last week, or will we see more of a team that just can't get it done? They were on the verge of going down yet again, but Washington leading 14-10 deep in Atlanta territory gets picked off, and shortly after a long return, instead of 21-10, it became 17-14 Atlanta. It was, in our opinion, somewhat of a false win for Atlanta. Tampa Bay has been one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. There have been only 6 of the last 38 teams that have come in here leave with a victory of more than 4 points! The biggest problem Atlanta has is their offense is extremely unbalanced. They are averaging just 119 yards passing in the last five and of course four of those have been losses. They scored the most points when they passed the ball. They had a two game stretch (the only two games all year they threw the ball effectively) where they passed for 503 yards, and scored 70 points. Teams let them run the ball, and eventually the drive breaks down. They have averaged just 15 ppg over the last 5, and that won't get it done here. Their defense ranks 24th in yards allowed while Tampa's is ranked much better at #18. Poor offensive teams that are off a very inept offensive performance last game are very good bets in the NFL. People want to believe in Michael Vick and the Falcons and they want nothing to do with a 3-9 team that scored 3 points last game and 10 the game prior. But this is a perfect time to jump on the down-and-out team.

Minnesota may end up going with Tarvaris Jackson at QB this week and it would be the right place as they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Detroit defense will be without James Hall, and Shaun Rogers, the two best pass rushers, and the secondary will be without Fernando Bryant. So the worst defense will be a bit weaker. Detroit has the league's worst team at defending the pass, allowing 68.3% completions. Their offense is their bright spot, if they have one. But, they are going to be facing a tough defense here. Minnesota held Rex grossman to 6-19 last week and just 34 yards and intercepted him three times. The Vikes have owned this series winning 9 straight and 13 of 14, and we don't expect that to change this week. Tavaris Jackson had a great exhibition season, finishing with a 106.1 rating and he poses a threat with his great mobility. Detroit had its playoff game last week against New England, and coughed it up in the 4th quarter. They have shown to be a team to pack it in as the season goes south, losing 6 of last 7 last year, and 8 of last 10 two years ago. Detroit has now given up 46 sacks, and stand just 14-31 ATS as a favorite in last 45. Minnesota is 7-2 ATS vs the NFC North while Detroit is 1-7 ATS last 8 vs the North. Detroit has the 30th ranked defense in points allowed vs. Minnesota ranked #8. Hard to believe a 2-10 team is giving a 5-7 team points, but we will gladly take them - new QB or not.

Ready for the shocker stat of the week? Oakland has one of the best defenses in the league! Yes it's true. Read on. Last year Oakland was horrible and they started 2006 the same way. They've improved, covering the sepread in six of their last eight. They remain bad on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense has quietly posted great numbers. Oakland allowed 30+ points five times last year, but were only a 9+ point underdog three times. This year they have been instilled as a 9+ point underdog now for the 7th time despite a much better defense. The lines they are getting are out of whack and that's why they are covering the spread nearly every week. They are at the top of the league ranked #4 in yards allowed. They started the year giving up 113 points in their first 4 games or 28.3 ppg. Since then they have given up just 16.1 ppg. When you think defense in the NFL, you immediately think of Baltimore, Jacksonville and Chicago. Oakland is within 10 yards per game of all three of those teams. Cinncinati is thought of as an offensive force, and has only been held to 17 or less four times. But who held them down? Those low scoring outputs came at the hands of teams with the Oakland caliber of defense. Baltimore #1 held them to 13, New England #9 held them to 13. Carolina #11 held them to 17. So there's a good chance Cincinnati doesn't go crazy on offense this week. We have in Cinncinati the second worst defense in the league. Since the defensive turnaround by Oakland in game five, they have been getting 9 or more points consistently and this will be the sixth time. All they have done is go 5-0 ATS, and have covered 6 of 8 in all. Cinncinati is just 8-20-1 ATS last 29 vs teams with a losing record at home, and just 3-10-1 ATS last 14 at home. We will gladly take the huge points here with the team with a top 5 defense vs. a team with a bottom-of-the barrel defense.

It's amazing how the public perception changes week to week. Philadelphia was left for dead after McNabb went down and they get killed by the Colts. Then Jeff Garcia comes in and pitches a perfect game on Monday Night and everything is suddenly better. We were on the Eagles in that game but it was more about the situation and their opponent that game than the strength of the Eagles. Washington has been one of the toughest home teams over the past three years. The last 17 games they have played at home they have been in every single game, and have won most of them. Their biggest loss save one OT game has been by 3 points! They lost to San Diego last year by 6 in OT so played them even for 60 minutes. Washington will have a chip on their shoulder this week as well as they haven't forgotten the 27-3 pounding they took at Philadelphia. Last week broke that 17 game streak of Washington's when they lost to Atlanta by 10. It is a game they should have won, as they beat Atlanta every which way possible. They had more first downs 25-16, led in time of possessions, won the punting game 40.8 to 31.2. The game changed with Washington driving deep into Atlanta territory leading 14-10 when they threw an interception. What was going to be 21-10 became 14-17 minutes later. They lost the all important turnover battle 2-0 but this one was worth 14 points, and cost them the game. Philly has not been road warriors, as they have dropped 11 of their last 15 ATS on the road. The Eagles were very up for Monday Night in a must-win game for them. This week the intensity will drop and the truth will rear its head again: Without McNabb, this is an average team at best. Take the Skins where they always bring it - at home.

After losing eight in a row one might expect that this Arizona team would have packed it in. What was supposed to be a playoff contending team tanked in the early going. But to their credit, they haven't mailed it in and are playing superb football of late. They've won two of their last three games, covering the spread in all three. Seattle comes in at 8-4 and barring a disaster, will be in the playoffs. They have played a couple of very important and emotional games. First was a must-win Monday night game against Green Bay and then Denver last week. Three weeks ago they were sitting at 6-4, a somewhat mediocre and concerning record for a team that went to the Super Bowl last year. They played very hard and well the past two weeks and now they are feeling pretty good and we think they are probably ready to relax a bit. They have a game coming up next Thursday, so may not be thinking about expending too much energy here against lowly Arizona. It's like a well-deserved week off. But that is very dangerous. This Seattle team has not been bad on the road, they have been awful. They got their first road cover of the year vs. Denver, but it took a +4 turnover margin to squeak out a 3-point win. Seattle has been outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the road and has lost the first downs battle 93-119. In their last five road games they have allowed an average of 28 points. Until last year, which now looks more and more like an anomoly, this is exactly what the Seahawks were known for - terrible play on the road. Arizona has scored more points in each of the last two weeks than it scored at anytime during the year since game one. The public loves Seattle now that Alexander and Hasslebeck are back and they are off two wins. We like the re-born Cardinals to perhaps win this game outright, but at least bring it down to the wire.

Everyone loves San Diego, and the public likes teams that can score. San Diego has that Superbowl look about them as they have rattled off six straight wins. We believe in them, don't get us wrong. But, this is not a spot to be laying over a TD. Denver looked to have the best defense in the league early on, but has been more like a middle of the pack team recently. We have taken our shots at Denver as we always felt Jake Plummer was a bad QB. Jake is gone and now it's Jay Cutler. Cutler had a rough go of it in his first outing so now everyone is jumping on the Chargers in this game. But, this is a lot of points to be laying in a division game, especially when both teams have a winning record coming in this late in the season. It is a much bigger game for Denver as they are fighting for their playoff lives. They cannot afford to lose their third in four games. Because of the San Dieog offensive juggernaut, no one seems to notice how much San Diego has slid on defense. They opened the season holding opponents to just 11 ppg over the first five games, but since have been giving up 26 ppg. That is over 2 TD's a game more! It is why they have not been covering games, as they have been able to cover just two in the past five weeks. They won all five straight up so the hype machine has built. But in those last five games we have seen them win by no more than 8 points against anyone. Denver has a streak going of 27 regular season games in a row of not losing by double digits, so this line and the fact it is a division game featuring two teams with winning records, is simply too high. San Diego has had the luxury of a very soft schedule, as they have only played four teams with a winning record, and have lost two of them. They have not won by more than 8 in the other two. Denver is officially down and out in the minds of the betting public and that can only mean one thing. We will take Denver as this line is way too high.