Betting Football Free Pick - December 09, 2007
We're off a winning week 13 thanks to hitting three of four 5-unit picks. It was our sixth winning week out of the last nine. This week we have four total plays we love including our top play of the year thus far in the Minnesota-San Francisco game. Remember, risk no more than 5% of your bankroll on each of these plays. We also have our take on the dismal quarterback situation this year in the NFL...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Dallas at Detroit (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Detroit +10.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Dallas is sitting pretty. They are 11-1, having won six in a row and they just nailed their most important win of the season over their only real threat in their conference (Green Bay). The Cowboys hold a commanding two-game lead for homefield advantage throughout thanks to the fact that they own the tiebreaker vs the Packers. They are headed to the Super Bowl in the minds of most and they have to be feeling more comfortable than any other team in the league right now. This is a perfect spot for a letdown. The Lions are a desparate team right now. Their playoff hopes, which looked golden after starting off 6-2, have now diminished to hopeful as they have dropped four straight games. Dallas is coming off of three straight division rivalry games, a Thanksgiving Day Game, and their biggest game of the year. Looking past the Lions, they have yet another division rivalry game vs the Eagles on deck. So if their is a spot for the Cowboys to relax, it is right here. Especially considering that Detroit looks as bad as anyone right now, coming off a 32-point loss to the Vikings. Yes, the Lions have lost four straight but that included losses to two of the NFC's best teams in Green Bay and New York. The other two losses were on the road vs. teams playing very well at home (Minneosta and Arizona). Last week was their only loss by more than this spread in seven weeks. They are winning their home games by an average of 7 points per game. Detroit has gone 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after having lose three straight ATS. Dallas is 3-18 ATS in their last 21 road games after having covered the spread in 3+ of their last four games. Detroit is also on a 12-2 ATS run after having been outgained in two straight games by 100+ yards. We have an overlay going on here with a team in a perfect letdown spot. We will back the Lions, a team in desparate need, to surpsie many and stay in this one.
Game: Miami at Buffalo (Sunday 12/09 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami +7 (-105)
Miami has lost 12 straight and is on the 0-fer watch. Will they go 0-16? We think they have a decent shot to end there streak this week. The fact is, the Fins have lost six games by 3 points or less, and only been beaten by 10 or more three times. Two of those 10+ point losses were as a favorite. No one wants to lose to a winless team as an underdog, and the Jets went into last week's game mad that they were underdogs. This is a different story as Buffalo, after seeing that, could easilly let down a bit here. Jesse Chatman ran for 124 yards vs the Bills earlier in the season, and the fact that the Bills have just 13 sacks, and are near the bottom of the league vs the pass, may give Beck the breathing room he needs. The Bills are coming off a huge emotional win and have Cleveland and the Giants coming up, so may be a bit of a letdown spot. Many thought Miami could win last week and they got spanked. They are at their low point and no one gives them a chance, as evidenced by getting 7 points vs. a 6-6 team. Miami has a defense that is playing better of late, and they have the best offense on the field in this game (Buffalo is second to last behind the Niners). The Bills are averaging 15.3 ppg (12 ppg in-division) so there's a good chance for Miami in this game and we'll back them with the points.
Game: Miami at Buffalo (Sunday 12/09 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Miami +260 (moneyline)
We like Miami's chances here and we'll put a couple of units on them to win the game straight up on the moneyline...
Game: Minnesota at San Francisco (Sunday 12/09 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +9.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Vikings have played themselves back into playoff contention at 6-6 and are coming off a complete pasting of the Lions. They completely dismantled Detroit in a game that most thought would be close, providing the biggest surprise of last week. They have won four of their last five and for the second consecutive week topped the 40 point mark. With Peterson back toting the ball, this team is great, right? They are at their peak and have officially become a public team. Is this suddenly an unstoppable offense though? Not exactly. They scored 41 vs the Giants on just 251 yards, as the New York offense self-destructed with three pick-sixes. They were shutout vs the Packers, and had to fight at home vs the Raiders to get a win. This is a serious overlay, yet the public has bitten this one hard, backing the Vikings at over 75%. The Vikes are led by a QB with a 69.6 rating. Jackson has shown the propensity to complete more to the wrong uniform than his own in the endzone. It's been a long time since we have seen a team with a pass defense rated dead last in the league as a road favorite of this magnitude. The Vikes are a one-dimensional team on offense and defense. They stop the run, and they are good at running the ball. They can't pass or stop the pass however. They are a flawed team especially playing on the road where they have been out-scored 23.2-19.3 and own just two wins versus four losses. This is a team that has gone 9-30 SU outdoors since 2001, they were under .500 before last week and yet they are favored by almost double-digits? San Francisco went seven weeks scoring only 60 points, but they have scored 51 in the last two. Last week they made six turnovers, but it was still a 3-point game late in the 3rd quarter. Remember, the Niners were +10 at Pittsburgh, but now they are in that same price range vs Minnesota at home? A lot of that is based on the hype around Peterson. Don't get us wrong, he is the best in the league right now, but still hobbled a bit. And, if teams learn to stack the box against him, Minnesota's passing game can't come to the rescue. The odds-makers have no choice setting this line after watching Minnesota putting up 40+ two weeks in a row, and San Francisco struggling for the most part with offense. But recently, the Niners have found some offense and they get a shot at the worst pass defense in the league. The last time Minnesota gave 7+ points on the road was in 2006 vs this same Niners team. The Vikings lost the game outright. It's hard to deny the value in this one, and we will ride the Niners to stay within the number here.
Game: Cleveland at New York Jets (Sunday 12/09 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on New York Jets +3.5 (-115) (risk 5 to win 4.4)
Is Cleveland really that much better than the Jets? We think not. The Browns right now remain overrated while New York is underrated, even after their big win. They aren't getting credit for the big win because it came against the winless Dolphins. But, what more can you ask than a 40-13 road win? The Jets must be feeling good after that win. Nothing keeps a team together during a bad season than a win. Kellen Clemens got another game under his belt and the confidence that can only come from winning real NFL games. The fact is, this Jets team is much better than it's 3-9 record would dictate. They have two big losses, one to the best team in the NFC (Dallas) and the other to the best team in the AFC (New England). They have been extremely competitive in the other ten games, getting outscored by a total of 15 points over the 10 games, or just 1.5 ppg! Cleveland comes in 7-5 with playoff aspirations. But this is not that good of a team. It has taken some very good bounces to achieve that 7-5 mark. They got the right bounce in Baltimore to steal one in OT and did the same vs Seattle. They could be 5-7, and this game would look much different. The fact is, the Browns are actually getting out-scored on the season, and for the first time this season, they have seen a decline in points scored over two consecutive weeks. They rank dead last in team defense in both yards allowed and points allowed, and they have not been able to stop anyone on the ground or in the air. They not only have been out-scored, but have been outgained by 30 yards per game. Yet they are favored on the road - hmmmm. Folks, that just aint right! The Browns are being out-scored by 3 points per game on the road and have managed just two road wins all season. The Jets have now beaten a superb team in Pittsburgh, and annihalated a bad one in Miami in the last three weeks. They certainly haven't quit. We like the Jets here to perhaps spring the upset, and get the outright win, but will grab the points with a live dog.
Results: 1-4
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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