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Football Prediction - December 07, 2008NOTE: We have updated our NFL Week 14 picks to include a play on the night game between Washington and Baltimore. Best of luck! Coming off a 5-1 Sunday and a 1-0 Monday night, we posted another winner last night on the Thursday night game. In addition to that 7-1 run, we are hitting 61% overall the past ten weeks (43-28) and have won nine out of the past ten weeks (and 13 of 16 overall). We have hit six 5-unit picks in a row and have two more this Sunday along with four other picks.  Today's NFL Football Picks: The Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Siants meet for the second time in less than a month. In the first meeting, the Falcons prevailed 34-20. The Saints lost and put up just 20 points despite Drew Brees throwing for 422 yards, and the offense posting 521 total yards. The Falcons contributed 361 yards, so the combined total offense here was just under 900 yards. These teams amazingly put up an additional 360 yards on returns as well, meaning the football moved over 1,200 yards in the game. You would think that this game went flying over the total, but that was hardly true. The total points scored of 54 was just 3 more than the total. However, despite the yardage numbers, it took a miracle to push it OVER. It took a 67-yard Matt Ryan pass to Jerious Norwood in the 4th quarter, a 95 yard interception return for a TD from Atlanta with just a minute to play, and then it still took a last second TD pass from Brees to send this one over! So, what looks on the surface to be a game that was destined to go over, it's just the opposite. The Falcons are a good offensive team at home producing 33 points per game, but they get only about half as miuch on the road where they produce just 15.6 ppg. At the same time they are allowing less than 20 ppg in their road games. That has resulted in five of six UNDERs on the road. In addition, 36 of their last 51 have gone UNDER when away from home. The Saints have played UNDER in 11 of their last 16 and allowed less than 150 passing yards their last game. I like this one to go UNDER the total. Game: Jacksonville at Chicago (Sunday 12/07 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Jacksonville +6.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) How bad is Jacksonville? Anyone who saw Monday night's game vs. Houston has an opinion on that - and a strong one. Meaning, nearly everyone thinks this team is absolutely horrible. It's hard to come to any other conclusion, honestly. Since a 38-14 win over lowly Detroit a month ago, the Jags have lost three in a row by a combined score of 43-84. It's impossible to turn on the TV or radio and not hear the word "dissapointing" in conjunciton with these Jags who were 11-5 last season. What was supposed to be a very good team this year looks bad. But let's ask the question - are they really that bad? In those three losses they lost the turnover battle by a combined 9-3. It's hard to do anything but lose big in that situation. In games in which they have not had a turnover disadvantage this year they are 3-2. Chicago is the better team, but a full touchdown? In a division game? Maybe on some days, but I like the Jags in this particular situation. They have nothing to lose at this point. At 4-8 and coming off those three losses, I think some of the pressure is actually off as they enter this game. The palyoffs are out of the question so what do they have to play for? Spoiler! They can really hurt the hated 6-6 Bears by laying a loss on them here. This Chicago team is improved over last year, but they are showing signs of mediocrity. While averaging 28 points per game through the first half of the season, they have since managed only 14.5 per game in their last four games, scoring 14 or less in three of them. This is a really good spot for Jacksonville. Under Jack Del Rio, they are 28-17 ATS as an underdog, 17-8 ATS off a road loss, and 12-4 ATS after two straight underperformances (ATS losses). Del Rio will have this team ready. The Jags were embarrassed in front of the nation, and their peers, on Monday night and I look for them to come out inspired and play well enough to cover (and maybe win) here. Game: Kansas City at Denver (Sunday 12/07 4:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 It has been a strange and wild ride for the Broncos this season. They opened the year at 3-0 and looked like an offensive power, averaging 38 ppg in the process. Amazingly since then, they haven't even scored 38 once, and have gone just 4-5 in their last nine games. That 38 ppg average has been sliced nearly in half, at 19.8 ppg over their last nine games. What was a superb top-scoring offense has turned into one that is below league average now. The Chiefs finally won a game last week, just their second in their last 19 games! Unfortunately it came against the Raiders and anyone who saw Thursday night's Oakland - San Diego game knows how bad the Raiders really are. The Chiefs haven't been able to consistently move the ball on anyone, and have played 12 of their last 18 on the road to the UNDER, including four of six this season. The Broncos are still classified as an OVER team from their start, and continue to be issued inflated totals. Sure, their offense clicked last game as they put up 34 on the Jets, but one game does not a trend make. All three times their total has reached this level of over 48 points since their big start, they have failed to reach it. This one may look high scoring, but looking closer at Denver, and the road saga of the Chiefs, I'm playing this one UNDER. Game: New England at Seattle (Sunday 12/07 4:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Seattle +4.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) This line looks like an error? The New England Patriots laying just 4.5 to the lowly Seachickens? What? The Patroits put together an incredible two-game run with Matt Cassel posting 400+ yards and a QB rating of 100+ in each one, putting him in very elite company. Despite the fact the offense was moving, the Pats lost one of the games because the defense, once a stronghold of the team, is no longer even average. Last week, Cassel settled into more familiar form, and finished the game vs. the Steelers with a QB rating of 39.4, posting no TD's and two INT's. I think the Pats will be able to move the ball on the Seahawks, for sure, but Cassel has now gotten an over-valued rating. Aside from the two-game explosion where he threw for six TD's and just one INT, the rest of his season shows seven TD's to nine interceptions which is hardly Brady-like numbers. What seems to get overlooked here is the fact that Cassel has been sacked 38 times this season. The Patriots defense is another area that has been overlooked with the two games Cassel had. The Pats have surrendered 95 points in three games or 31.7 ppg! The season shows that the Pats defense allows a QB rating of 90.13. To put that in perspective, those numbers are shared by Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Eli manning, all possible Pro Bowl candidates! The Seahawks aren't winning games, but have become much more competitive since getting key personnel back from injury. They lost big to the Cowboys last week which means no one wants to touch them this week. But that loss will motivate them to over-perform here. They played Washington to a FG at home, Arizona to within 6 points on the road (in a place where the Cardinals have been lighting up everyone), and lost by just 2 points at Miami. So one thing is for certain - this Seattle team hasn't quit. The Pats have become overrated at this point, because they are the Pats, but they are going to get a game from the Seahawks. I'll take the points here. Game: Dallas at Pittsburgh (Sunday 12/07 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Pittsburgh -3 (-105) (risk 4 to win 3.8) The Cowboys have to be the biggest bandwagon team of 2008. When they started out the season playing very well, averaging 29.4 ppg in their first five games, everyone crowned them Super Bowl representatives from the NFC. Then they lost to Arizona and Romo went out. They followed that up with an embarrassing loss to St. Louis and all of a sudden, this team was destined to the trash heap. It wasn't just about Romo as everyone was pointing out the flaws in the rest of the team, a team that gave up 30 to Arizona, 34 to St. Louis and 35 to the Giants within a four week span. Well, then Romo came back and the Cowboys have won three straight and are coming off a big public flogging of Seattle on Thanksgiving day. Now the talking heads are once again annointing this team as the one that could beat New York in the NFC. Most are giving them a good shot at winning in Pittsburgh. Not me. Yes, Dallas is a VERY good team with Romo behind center. They are 26-9 with Romo starting. But let's not forget about the other team playing in this game. The Steelers are 41-19 with Ben Roethlisberger taking snaps - a much more impressive record. And, they own the league's top defense, and are playing at home in a big game. This defense held New England to 1-for-13 conversion on third down last week and sacked Matt Cassel - a supposedly mobile QB - five times. This defense has been so good, that it's allowed Pittsburgh to win, even when Big Ben has underproduced. Let's examine that. There were games this season in which Roethlisberger threw for 122, 164, 149, 168, 154, 160 and 172 yards. Pittsburgh's record in those games? They went 5-2! The Cowboys have the 9th ranked defense in yards allowed and the 16th ranked defense in points allowed. Not horrible but certainly not great. And, they may be without their best palyer this weekend - DeMarcus Ware. In contrast, the Steelers defense? Ranked #1 in rushing yards allowed, #1 in passing yards allowed, #1 in total yards allowed and #1 in points allowed. Give me that kind of defense, with a good offense, at home, laying just a field goal. Game: St. Louis at Arizona (Sunday 12/07 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48.5 -110 The Rams have lost 14 of their last 16 games and stand at just 2-10 this season. They simply can't get anything going offensively. They have not found the end-zone but once in their last four games, and that was a gift on their last possession of the game vs. San Francisco in a game they were trailing 35-9. They have averaged an unbelievable 9.6 ppg in their last five games, having scored 16 or less in 10 of 12 games on the season. If that holds true to form, that puts a lot of pressure on the Cardinals offense to put up about 40 to push this one OVER the total. As good as the Arizona offense has been, they have only topped 35 once. And lately, they have slowed down as they have not produced even one 30-point game in over a month. Totals in this range take two teams scoring, and I just don't see it happening here. Game: Washington at Baltimore (Sunday 12/07 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 35 -110
Results: 5-2 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-December-04-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-01-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-28-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-26-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-24-2008 |
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