Monday Night Football Score Predictions - December 06, 2009

We went 7-3-1 last week, capped off by the easy win on Monday night as New Orleans dismantled the Pats. Last week bumped us to 24-14 (63%) for +20.7 units over the last month. We still have a ways to go to get where we want to be, but 14-5 over the past two weeks is a good start. This Sunday we have ten picks...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	24-14 last 38 picks	63%	+$2070
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
NHL	107-62 last 169 picks	63%	+$10010
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$25940

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Denver at Kansas City (Sunday 12/06 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Kansas City +5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

The Denver Broncos seem to be one step ahead of the public this season. They scored big upset wins at home vs. the Cowboys, Patriots and last week once again over the Giants. We were on them in a couple of those big upset wins. Just when the public starts believing however, they lose. When the public gets behind them as they are here, things just don't work out. This team has definitely become a team on which it's best to buy low and sell high. Coming off that big Thanksgiving day massacre over the Giants, it's time again to sell. That game was more about the ineptitude of New York than superb play by Denver. The Broncos have been horrendous as a favorite as they are just a paltry 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 posted as chalk. This role not only has been unsuitable to the Broncos but the league in general. Good teams that win 60%-75% of their games off an upset win by 14-points or more, really take a fall the following week going 15-42 ATS! Long term a team playing on the road off an upset win as a dog are 144-223 ATS. The Chiefs are off a disappointing big loss, but these teams that lost a week ago by 14+ and are now a home dog have ripped the books for a 60-29 ATS mark. The Chiefs have also thrived against the Broncos taking points at home as they are have won 9 of the 12 outright. Denver is just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams with losing records. Denver is a better team than most thought coming into the season, but their stats tell us the truth - this is a mediocre team. They are scoring 17.8 points per game and allowing an equal number. The Chiefs have started off horribly this season going 0-4 SU and ATS. But, they have since adjusted to their new coach and have won five of the last seven ATS. I like the Chiefs here.

Josh Freeman has turned the Bucs into a competitive team. Prior to his taking over under center, this team was getting blown out week after week. They lost their first six games by an average of 18 points per game. But, the Bucs beat the Packers with him at QB and have been competitive in all but one game since. So while this team still has a long way to go, they have come a long way. Are the Panthers with their backup QB making his first start in two years really that much better? They had a chance a week ago to keep their playoff hopes alive, but lost to the Jets, scoring six points. It was their fourth loss in the last six weeks and dropped them to 4-7 on the year. I can hardly see them bringing fire against a one-win team when their season effectively ended last week. The Panthers have not been a good home favorite as they are 14-23 ATS in that role. The fact is, Carolina is a bad team and I see nothing turning that around this week. This team is 15-25 ATS in the John Fox erea as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 8-18 ATS under Fox after back-to-back losses including 1-9 at home. I like Tampa to keep this close. I also like the UNDER here. Carolina averages 18 points per game while Tampa Bay gets just 16.5 per game. Neither one of these teams has a big-play offense as the Panthers have allowed over 450 yards on the ground over the last three weeks and like to run it themselves. The last 15 times the Panthers have been home vs. a divisional opponent in a Sunday game, the UNDER is 15-0! I'll go with Tampa Bay and the UNDER in this one.

The Super Bowl Champion Steelers have had to play this season with a target on their backs. Every team they play brings their "A" game against them and there have been few easy games. In addition to that, they have faced key injuries. Layer on top of that an apparent lack of fire that we saw last season from this team as they seem to be playing like contented champions. The result? A 4-7 ATS record and only three wins by more than 10 points. That makes things most difficult when facing a team like Oakland. The Raiders don't pose much of a threat in the minds of the opponent, and that offers a bundle of points to be very tempting here. The Steelers are a good team, but they have had all kinds of difficulty tackling big numbers to cover. Last season, they were a better team and were asked to cover a spread of 6.5 or more just four times the entire season. The result was 4-0 ATS! This season, facing inflated lines, they are 0-5 ATS trying to cover the same large numbers hung on them. Last year the Steelers were crushing everyone, winning six games by 17 or more points. This year’s biggest win has been by 18, and that is the only game they have won by more than 13 all season. Spreads this high are usually reserved for teams that are playing like the New Orleans Saints or the Indianapolis Colts. Those teams own average margins of victor of 17 and 11 points. In contrast, Pittsburgh is winnning games by an average of just four points per game.  I'll take the inflated spread and grab the Raiders here.

It would be very difficult to expect the Bears to come back and play tough in this one. They gave everything they had last week vs. the Vikings, and it was good enough for a 7-7 tie midway through the second quarter. The Vikings took off from that point, essentially ending the Bears' season. At 4-7, Chicago will not be making the playoffs and if there was ever a deflating loss leading to a mail-it-in type of game, this is the spot vs. the lowly Rams. It has been over a month since the Bears even won a game and now they are a huge favorite? That says more about what the oddsmakers think of the Rams than the Bears. If you haven't noticed, the Bears are 1-6 in their last seven games with three losses by 20 points or more. In their last four games they have a worse record than the Rams. The fact is, St. Louis has improved (didn't lose a game by more than 10 points the last month), while Chicago has gotten worse (0-4 with 14 ppg scored over last month). I like St. Louis with the generous points here. I also like the UNDER. Both offenses have been anemic this year. St. Louis is averaging 11.8 points per game. Chicago has averaged 14.3 per game over the last month. Take out a 30-point performance vs. Cleveland and a 48-point performance vs. Detroit, and the Bears are averaging just 15.3 points per game on the year! The Rams have played to the UNDER at a 13-5 mark in their last 18 on grass. The Bears are 5-0 to the UNDER after allowing 150 rushing yards or more and 20-2 UNDER after scoring 14 or fewer points under Lovie Smith. The one bright spot for the Rams is RB Stephen Jackson, so the Rams will have the ball on the ground a lot here grinding the clock. The last seven meetings between these two have produced five UNDERs. This spread is inflated and the Bears deflated. With Jackson grinding out yards on the ground, I like the Rams and the UNDER in this one.

The Cleveland Browns are an ugly team - no way around that. Outside of the shootout vs. the Lions, they have gone a full season of NFL games finding the end-zone just six times. That is enough to steer the typical gambler far away from the them. With that said, this inept offense has covered five of their last eight games and getting 13 points against anyone at home is always worth a look. The Chargers are riding high having won six straight and posting back-to-back blowout wins by 29 each. They have two huge games on deck vs. the Cowboys and Bengals, and making the trip across the country in December against an incompetent opponent will likely not motivate this team to pack their "A" game for the trip. The proof lies in the Chargers 2-6 ATS mark in their last eight as a favorite of 10.5 or more as they seem to only play good enough to win in this type of game. The Browns have now covered at a rate of 4-1-1 vs. teams with a winning road record as they rise up, while the good teams realize they have an easy win, and play just well enough to get it. Don't look now but since the return of Brady Quinn to the starting lineup, the Browns are 2-0 ATS. The public is all over the Chargers like they already know the final score, but I'm on the side that has all the value and will back the Browns here.

The Giants started the season 5-0, winning on average by a score of 30-14. Since then they have gone 1-5, losing on average 38-20. What has changed? Well, facing Oakland, KC and Tampa Bay in the early going, and New Orleans and San Diego in the late going is part of it. Another contributor was a +6 turnover ratio in the first five games vs. -6 in the last six. But how can I back a team that has given up 38 points per game over their last six games? This defense isn't nearly as bad as it looks. As hard as it is to believe, during their losing run in which they are giving up 38 points per game, the Giants have been outgained by just 88 total yards (15 per game)! So, turnovers and bad luck have contributed to this run to make it look worse than the true strength of this team would dicatate. Dallas however has not been scoring lately. They have managed just 14.5 points per game over their last four games. This has always been a huge rivalry game and I'm not sure if there has ever been a bigger one for the Giants. At 6-5, New York can kiss the playoffs good-bye with a loss here, and Big Blue has proven in the Coughlin era that they get their back up in the big games. Despite the problem keeping teams off the scoreboard, the Giants have been very tough to run on. In their last seven games, only one team has managed to run for over 3.5 yards per carry. Tony Romo has struggled throughout his career when he doesn't get run support. The Giants also know him well and I expect them to force him into some mistakes (which he has been known to produce once we reach December). Romo has thrown just five TDs in December games to six INTs and six fumbles. The weather forecast includes snow Saturday night in New York, and it will be a cold, breezy Sunday in the Meadowlands. Romo is just 2-11 ATS as a starter in December, and it just might be in his head now. Cold weather means the running game will be big and I like the Giants’ chances in that department here. New York is not as bad as it appears and they will be ready for this one.

Minnesota is overrated. More on this in a minute. The good news for the Cards is that the status of Kurt Warner, who sat out last week's game with a concussion, is listed as probable for this big game vs. Minnesota. Arizona gets a lot of ink regarding Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin and their play-making offense, but the defense has done some catching up. The yardage numbers aren't pretty as they rank No. 24 in yards allowed, but the one that counts the most is points allowed, where they are No. 13. They have only allowed two teams to score more than 21 points in nine games this season. Arizona has been a hot team and are 6-2 in their last eight and really should be 7-1 if not for the old "prevent defense" and a lot of bad luck that allowed Tennessee to march 99 yards for the winning score as time ran out last week. This team has taken on the "big game" philosophy as they really seem to be at their best as a FG favorite or less, or as a dog at home where they have cashed eight of their last ten. They show up most in the biggest games as tehyh are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games vs. teams at .750 or better. Over the past three seasons, they are 9-1 ATS vs. teams like Minnesota that outscore their opponents by 6+ ppg. The Vikings have been living on home cooking, and believe it or not, have not played on the road in over a month. They have had three straight at home after their bye week, so this will be their first time on the road since November 1, and should find the going a lot more difficult. They have had road tilts vs. St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland, and this one will be different without the home fans pumping them up. In their only real road test this year (vs. Pitt), the Vikes suffered their lone defeat of the season. Back to the fact that Minnesota is overrated. This is a good team, but not as good as it may appear on the surface. Minnesota has had the pleasure of feasting on the easiest schedule inthe NFL. They have played Cleveland, Detroit (twice), St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago. Their opponents for 2009 went just .420 last season and this season they are holding form. The Vikes have played just three winning teams all year and two of those teams (Pitt and Balt) are barely above .500. On top of all that, this team has had an inordinate amount of luck. Their best players have remained healthy, and they are +8 in turnovers (ranked in the top 5 in the NFL). When/if that luck evens out, this team won't look as powerful as they have. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS at home the past three seasons when coming off a loss. I like Arizona plus the points here in a game that, with a healthy Warner, they can win outright. I also like the UNDER here. Minnesota's offense has looked unstoppable for most of the season. The one place they stumbled was on the road vs. a decent defense (scored 17 at Pittsburgh). Arizona's defense has allowed just 18.5 ppg over the past month with only one team scorign more than 21 on them since September. The Vikings’ defense has stepped up of late allowing 10 or less in three straight games. The Vikings are also playing low off of a two-TD or more win where their next game has seen the UNDER prevail at 15-3. I like the Cards here and the UNDER.

Results: 8-2

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

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NFL-Football-Picks-November-27-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-November-25-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-November-23-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-November-20-2009
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