Season record update: We're now 39-26 (60%) on the regular season picks and 113-71 on a unit basis for a profit of $3,490 for $100 per-unit players. Five picks for Sunday this week.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Atlanta at Washington (Sunday 12/03 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Washington -1

We usually like these teams that have looked bad recently to come back and have a strong game. We looked for a reason to back Atlanta in their down-and-out state, but we just could not come up with one. It doesn't get much worse for an NFL team than it is right now for the Dirty Birds. We ask - which has been the most futile NFL team of late - Detroit or Atlanta? I guess that was answered for us 4 weeks ago when Detroit beat them by 16! It has actually gotten worse for the Falcons since then. They put up massive rushing yards, but nothing else. Michael Vick was looking like what everyone wanted him to be with a couple of superb weeks early on, but he looks utterly confused right now, and it culminated with his gesture that cost him 20K last week. His confidence is shot. The Atlanta defense has bitten the bullet too. They started out giving up 13.8 ppg in the first five games. In the last six that has skyrocketed to 31.2 ppg! It is pretty tough to win football games like that, especially when you have scored 14 or less in the last four weeks (and in 7 of 11 on the season). This is a total collapse on both sides of the ball, and when you see this happening, you have to take advantage of it by playing the other side. Washington came up big vs. Carolina last week and are a completely different football team at home. They have been in every single one of their last 16 home games. They have not lost a home game by more than 3 points in 2 and a half years (outside of an OT game vs SD they lost by 6). They finally put together a game on both sides of the ball, and you have to wonder if this team is ready to break out like last year's team that won its final five and made the playoffs. You can be sure in the mediocre NFC, even at 4-7 they are not dead, if they run the table again. Just can't see Atlanta turning it around, they are to far gone. Skins here.

San Diego has that Superbowl look about them right now. They are taking care of business week after week and they top most people's list of top teams. Buffalo suddenly has won 3 of 4 and and the loss was by 1 point to Indianapolis. They are off a very big win last week at home vs Jacksonville. San Diego has a big game vs. Denver at home next week, while for the Bills this is another opportunity to add to the feel-good of the past four weeks. The Bills are playing their best football in over two years. There is also a trend in this game that involves personnel. Buffalo has gotten healthier and healthier over the past four weeks while San Diego has lots of injuries to deal with over the past two weeks. This may be in part why they seemed to coast vs. Oakland, and may be the case again here vs. Buffalo. Rivers, who had just 3 picks all season going into week 11, has had 3 picked in his last two games and had his worst game of the season going 14-31 for 133 vs. Oakland. Could he be hitting the first-time-starter wall? JP Losman on the otherhand has been good completing 71.2% over his last two. Having McGahee back and carrying more of the load should help as well. San Diego started the season allowing just 11 ppg through five weeks, but has been lapsing defensively of late yielding 26.8 ppg over its last six. The only team they held below 24 points was lowly Oakland. Buffalo can credit their trunaround on what decides many NFL games - turnovers. After giving away 15 in the 1st seven games, they have had just two in the last four games. Buffalo's a tough place to play in December, especially for warm-weather teams. The Bills are 18-6 ATS here in the last 24 during this month. A hot QB, a returning RB, a team not putting the ball on the ground and a recently pourous opposing defense make for a live home dog.

The Colts are on their way to another season notching a very high win total. They have had to do it without much of a running game and a bad run defense. But this isn't the same team as last season. Last year at this stage they were blowing out everyone in sight with wins of 21, 25, 17, 18, 19, and 14 points. This year, despite an identical 10-1 record, they have had only three double digit wins. Teams are simply sticking a lot closer to them than they were last year. They have yet to post back-to-back games of big margin wins. The fact is that seven of this year's ten Indy wins (5, 7, 3, 1, 3, 7, 1) would not cover this line! Tennessee has done an about face thanks primarily to Vince Young. They started 0-5, and have suddenly won four of their last six, covering six of their last seven! But, it isn't just the QB. This entire team has improved dramatically. They averaged 12 ppg over the first five games and gave up 31.4 ppg, on average losing by 19.4 ppg. The past six games they are averaging 20.1 ppg and giving up just 20.2 ppg. That's a 19.3 ppg swing! It not only looks like a different team, it is! It is never a good idea to give up a TD+ to a team at home, especially one that is playing very well. This year teams getting 7 or more at home are 7-2 ATS with two outright wins and three one point losses. Indianapolis is 10-1, but seven of the games were one possession games, meaning they won by a TD or less. We will take the surging Titans to stay in this one.

It will feel good for Chicago to be back home after three games on the road. The one thing that made this team lethal earlier, outside of their defense of course, was the outstanding play of Grossman. But he has become the make or break guy for this team with his erratic play. The defense on this field can win a game all by itself but the question remains - which Grossman shows up? We'd venture a guess that the game plan will involve letting the defense win it, and the offense will be planned to keep Grossman from losing it. Minnesota has struggled on offense, especially vs. defenses like Chicago plays at home. The game tempurature is going to be in the low 20s, which usually means a grind 'em out type of game. Outside of one game, Chicago has given up just 6.1 ppg in its last 10 at home. That one game of course was the Miami game which was anything but normal (6 Chicago turnovers). We don't think Grossman is going to be put in the situation where he can lose the game. He'll be asked to manage it, let the defense create field position, and score enough to win the game. Chicago is 15-5 to the UNDER after a SU loss, and has scored 10 ppg less over the last four than they did in the first seven when they were lighting it up. Minnesota is 10-1 to the UNDER after scoring 30. This has the look of a 16-6 type game to us, and we will act accordingly.

We keep coming back to this Cleveland team. We know we'll get the "are you crazy" mail on this one, especially after last week. But one of the realities of betting on sports is that sometimes your picks lose. And, when you take a large number of "ugly" underdogs, sometimes those picks lose big (30-0 in this case). What we also know though is that a 30 point loss is the same as a 1 point loss and that over the long haul, we have made killed the sportsbooks on these kinds of teams. The public can't stomach losing so big so they back the big pretty favorites - and they lose year in and year out. So, bear with us as we back a team that lost 30-0 last week at home. There are several long term trends that set this game up for us. As we stated last Monday night, teams off a big-time shutout loss are gold the following week. Their pride forces them to show up in a big way. The Browns have been competitive in most games this year. Also, the team that lost by the most points the week before has covered their next game all but once this year, and has been very strong in past years as well. Think about it. These are professional athletes with pride. Their practice this week was not fun for sure, and they can't wait to get out there and get redemption. One thing for sure, they will play 60 minutes of their best football. On top of that, Kansas City is in the perfect let-down spot, just having won their first ever T-Giving Day game. They were sky-high for that rivalry game against the Broncos and they can't be that high again this week agains the lowly Browns. They are in a sandwich game, as they will face 8-2 Baltimore next week. This one isn't about the stats, it is about the mindsets of the teams coming in. The public loves KC and it's very tough to back Cleveland. But this is, as they say, where we earn our stripes. Browns big here.