Football Winning Picks - December 02, 2007
We have a big Sunday coming up. We released three totals early on Wednesday, expecting line changes. Those are included below along with five additional selections...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: San Francisco at Carolina (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 35.5 -110
The Niners put up 37 points last week which was more points than they put up in the last four games they have played combined! Is the Niner offense back? Hardly! Trent Dilfer had a career game, and the Niner defense gave up more points and yards than they have all season. It was one of those games that you just throw away. This Niner offense is one of the worst ever in the NFL. In the previous seven games they managed to find the endzone just threee times, unless there was four minutes or less left in the 4th quarter, with the game long decided. The result is 60 points in sven games, or 8.6 ppg. Carolina has faced similar problems, as they have managed just 50 points over the last five weeks, good for 10 per game. This is a battle of two bad offensive teams, and NFL history shows UNDER is the way to go in these match-ups. When the total is in this range, and you have a team in Carolina that has lost 5+ their last seven games, facing an opponent that has lost 4+ of their last five, the UNDER has prevailed 75% of the time, 36-12! We will ride the UNDER in this one.
Game: Buffalo at Washington (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Washington -5.5
It has been a tough week for Washington. The Redskins lost safety Sean Taylor in a tragic shooting at his home. Buffalo by virtue of two straight losses saw their hopes to finding a way to the playoffs after a mid season surge disappear. This will be a very bad spot for Buffalo. We have seen this on every level, including college and pro. When an important part of a team (teammate, coach, owner) goes down, that team steps on the field with a mission and purpose. Sport is so motivationally and emotionally driven, it is what often separates one team from another. Washington will be bringing their highest emotion of the season into this one. Clinton Portis has already made the decision to wear Taylor's uniform #21 in honor of his fallen teammate. Portis and Taylor were also teammates at the University of Miami. When your top offensive player decides this game is for his fallen teammate, watch-out Buffalo, because that will be the tone here. You can make a list of the times this has happened in sports. The results are always the same. When Wellington Marra passed away, the Giants went out and smacked the Skins 36-0 in his honor. Last year, the University of Miami had a fallen teammate and the Canes played their best game of the year to win outright as a dog. Indiana and Northwestern had coaches pass to find the same results. Throw out the stat sheets, and enter an emotionally charged team, with a common mission, and the Skins are the only way to go here.
Game: Seattle at Philadelphia (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 42 -110
This pick was an early newsletter release on Wednesday based on severe expected line movement in three games due to horrible weather conditions that will be present on Sunday. We have all seen these games when the word gets out, and the totals bottom out. We expect three games to qualify this week. We recommend playing these games immediately, as the window of opportunity will begin to close. We are on this early, based on a system we have developed designed around certain bad-weather conditions. These games meet the threshhold criteria that has proved to produce over 70% winners over many years.
Game: New York Jets at Miami (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +1
The jury is still out on Miami. Do they manage to become the first NFL team in history to go winless for the season? We don't have the answer for that, but what we don't see is any value in a winless team as a favorite. Sooner or later, you have to score some points in this league to win a game, and Miami just hasn't been able to do anything offensively. The last four weeks they have put up a grand total of 27 points, or just 6.8 ppg. We are not quite sure how a team scoring less than a TD a week ends up a favorite. The Jets certainly have not had a good season, but remember this was a playoff team last year, with similar personnel, and a team that hasn't quit. If you throw out the two losses to powerhouses Dallas and New England, the two best teams in the NFL right now, the Jets are losing games by an average of just 4.8 ppg. Every team likes a shot at an undefeated team, and by the same token, no team wants to be the first to lose to a winless team. The Dolphins running game took another blow, when Ricky Williams joined Ronnie Brown on IR, and Jesse Chatman left last week's game with a neck injury. Chatman should play Sunday, but he may not be 100% either. Since QB Trent Green went down with yet another concussion, Cleo Lemon and John Beck have a total of three TD passes versus four INTs. It's hard to see a team as a favorite with no running game, and no QB. Miami makes it to 0-12.
Game: Cleveland at Arizona (Sunday 12/02 4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Arizona +0
It appears that the Cleveland Browns have arrived! At least the public thinks so. And the odds-makers realize they have to show some respect for the 7-4 Browns. We have a different view of the Browns, at least this week. This is a perfect situation as the Cards just gave up 37 to a team that hasn't scored 37 in their last five games combined. The Browns have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, so this one should be easy right? We don't think so. The Browns surely can score some points, but the last thing to come to a team on the improve, is playing that way on the road. We haven't seen it from the Browns. They have played on the road four times. The first was against an 0-2 Oakland team, which was a loss. Another was vs an 0-7 St. Louis team that was missing half of its team. The Browns escaped with a 7 point win. Two weeks ago they were on the road vs a Baltimore team that was 0-3 in its last three games, getting out-scored 78-28, and it took a miracle finish to get out of there alive. The other was a 17 point loss to New England. Not the type of resume you typically see from a team on the road vs a 5-6 team that plays well at home. Arizona has beaten Pittsburgh and Seattle this season as a home dog, and last year they beat Seattle and Kansas City and got the cover vs Chicago. The Cards have their offense clicking now, and have put up 97 points in their last three games. They should have no trouble scoring against a Cleveland defense that is horrible (worst in the leauge) and also missing half of their secondary for this one. Kurt Warner threw for 484 yards last week and certainly could equal or top that vs the defenseless Browns. The offenses are even right now, but the defensive edge is in favor of the Cards. The Cards are at home and desparate because a loss could end their playoff hopes. A win in contrast keeps them right in the thick of things. Cards should come away with a convincing win.
Game: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Sunday 12/02 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay +3.5
It's been feast or famine this year for the Saints. They look like basement dwellers one week, and playoff contenders the next. It may have something to do with the competition. The Saints have been out-scored by teams with winning records 144-107, while they have out-scored teams with losing records 136-108. Tampa Bay, at 7-4 already owns a superb 31-14 win vs the Saints, and their defense is really putting it all together now. The Bucs have held seven teams to 14 points or less and most recently, have allowed only 30 points in their last three games (all wins). The Bucs have gone from the inept last year, to a true contender this year. It isn't just the defense. The offense has scored more points the last four games than any other four game sequence this season, so it is a team playing at their peak on both sides of the ball. Jeff Garcia has thrown just 3 INTs all year, while Drew Brees has completed 15 to the wrong team. Part of the problem for the Saints is the lack of a running game, as the Saints offense has become too one-dimensional. Tampa has the type of defense to exploit that flaw. We believe the wrong team is favored here, and will go with the Bucs and the points.
Game: New York Giants at Chicago (Sunday 12/02 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 42.5 -110
This pick was an early newsletter release on Wednesday based on severe expected line movement in three games due to horrible weather conditions that will be present on Sunday. We have all seen these games when the word gets out, and the totals bottom out. We expect three games to qualify this week. We recommend playing these games immediately, as the window of opportunity will begin to close. We are on this early, based on a system we have developed designed around certain bad-weather conditions. These games meet the threshhold criteria that has proved to produce over 70% winners over many years.
Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Sunday 12/02 8:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 46 -110
This pick was an early newsletter release on Wednesday based on severe expected line movement in three games due to horrible weather conditions that will be present on Sunday. We have all seen these games when the word gets out, and the totals bottom out. We expect three games to qualify this week. We recommend playing these games immediately, as the window of opportunity will begin to close. We are on this early, based on a system we have developed designed around certain bad-weather conditions. These games meet the threshhold criteria that has proved to produce over 70% winners over many years.
Results: 5-3
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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