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Pro Football Predictions - August 29, 2009We had a great week two going 7-4 (64%) for +10.8 units and we are now up on the season. We look to build on that success with five picks this week. Week three is the week in which starters play the most, so you won't see any of my usual underdog picks this week. In case you missed it, check out my 2009 Season Wins Predictions (65% lifetime) and my article on How to Bet the NFL preseason. Why it's good to be a Wunderdog football season subscriber this year
 Today's NFL Football Picks: The Dolphins and Bucs meet in a long-standing preseason rivalry that has seen 23 games played, with Miami holding the advantage at 14-9. These teams are both still exploring starting QB's which should be the key to both teams' seasons. These teams historically have played defensive battles in these games. The last 12 played have seen the under go 10-2, and the winning team had 17 or less points in nine of the ten that went under. There is added reason to believe these teams will play low scoring here, besides the history. These teams meet during the regular season and it isn't likely they are going to tip their hand or show anything special. Instead, they should keep things basic and conservative. In addition the Bucs are 26-11 UNDER the past 15 years in the preseason when instilled as a favorite. I like this one to go UNDER the total.Game: New Orleans at Oakland (Saturday 8/29 4:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6) The Saints have started the preseason 2-0 while the Oakland Raiders will enter this one at 1-1. Both these teams have been able to score points thus far (27.5 per game for the Saints and 25.5 per game for the Raiders). But, the key to the Saints season won't be the offense. That has never been a question mark. The defense is the question. I expect the Saints to really put a focus on defense in this one. The Raiders were bad on both sides of the ball a year ago. I think after giving up 29 or more points six times a year ago, they will look to be more aggressive on defense, with starters getting the bulk of the minutes as they want to see where they stand. This is a rather high total set for an NFL preseason game. When the numbers reach this level, it has shown a winning rate of 63% in certain conditions, which are present for this one. While all signs point to an OVER, I like this one to go UNDER the total.Game: Baltimore at Carolina (Saturday 8/29 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Carolina -3 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 34 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Panthers are winless in two games as they have managed just 34 points thus far. I look for them to be focused on a win here as head coach John Fox has a pedigree for winning these preseason games (58% over the past six seasons). He can't be happy with an 0-2 start (with the loss coming by double-digits), and he has won over 70% of the time in game three. I like the Panthers to get it done here at home. I also like the UNDER. The Ravens first unit has been good thus far, having shut out Washington for the game and holding the Jets to just 7 first-half points last week. Look for the intensity to be turned up a notch as the starters get a lot of minutes and seems to be on a mission already this year. Carolina can play defense too as we have seen defensive efforts holding opponents to 3, 7, and 10 points in recent years from John Fox teams. Last year they held their week three opponent to just 3 points. Baltimore is 34-19 UNDER in all preseason games the past 15 years including 18-7 UNDER on the road and 14-4 UNDER coming off an OVER. I like Carolina and the UNDER in this one.Game: San Francisco at Dallas (Saturday 8/29 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 39 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) Mike Singletary has made one thing clear: he expects his teams to play hard and to play to win. Thus far they have delivered two wins, each by a single point. Look for them to kick it up a notch here in week three and play strong on defense, where the intensity shows up the most. Singletary is likely to remind his team of the 35 points Dallas hung on them a year ago, and I expect a fairly physical game here. This total is set rather high, anticipating the Dallas offense behind Tony Romo to score at will. Yes, this Cowboys offense is superb - in the regular season. The truth is, over the last eight years, the Cowboys have never put up more than 23 points in a preseason game and their opponents have averaged just 15.6 ppg. The average points scored in Dallas games in week three have been 34.5 ppg. And, these clubs hooked up in a game three a few years ago and put up just 24 total points. This number is too high, and I'm going with the UNDER. Results: 3-2 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-20-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-11-2009 |
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