Nfl Picks Free - August 31, 2007
We closed last week on a winning note with Atlanta to give us our third straight winning week. We're sitting at 9-5 on the preseason now (64%) for +8.7 units.
In the final preseason week, we have five selections and we'll wrap up our detailed look at each team this week by previewing the AFC North and South. If you missed any of them, you can click to see all of our 2007 NFL AFC Division Previews and 2007 NFL AFC Division Previews.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New York Jets at Philadelphia (Thursday 8/30 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +2.5
Andy Reid was 10-18 in preseason games coming into this year. The Eagles have gone 1-2 thus far to drop him to 11-20 lifetime (that's 35%). Yet the Eagles are favorites here? Hmmm. But it gets better! Andy Reid said after the Pittsburgh game that his starters would not play at all against the Jets this week! He has had a history of no-show performances in the annual exhibition closer vs. the Jets. These teams have met in the finale for the past four years and the Eagles have lost all of them! The Jets have covered five of the last six in this matchup in the preseason. With Reid's history and emphasis here on getting out healthy and playing no starters, the favorite role in this one makes no sense. The Jets are another story. Mangini is now 4-3 in preseason games. His team is putting up points, a sign that they are trying harder than most teams to win in the preseason. Kellen Clements has really been pushing Chad Pennington and it is certainly a reason they have put up 20+ points in every game. We will ride the Jets here to win on the road as a dog.
Game: Pittsburgh at Carolina (Thursday 8/30 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Pittsburgh +4Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 34.5 -110
The Panthers have been a great team to back in exhibition play over the past few years. Their win over the Giants in game one ran their streak to 15-2, but since then they have lost and lost big. They lost 10-27 to Philadelphia in week two and followed that up with a 7-24 loss to New England las week. Carolina has been besieged with injuries the past couple of years, and that may have caused a re-assessment for John Fox and his emphasis on winning in the preseason. Jake Delhomme looked bad last week and the offensive line with some changes, has been totally out of sync. Delhomme opened 3-10 for 14 yards, was sacked three times, fumbled, and threw an interception for a TD. The intensity is not the same as past exhibition seasons. The Panthers have allowed 21, 27 and 24 points. They got their win in week one (barely) but the subsequent no-shows tell us that the approach has in fact changed. With the season right around the corner, and the fear of injuries fresh in mind, we think Carolina takes it easy again this week. Mike Tomlin, in his first year as a head coach has a different agenda. Looking back, the Steelers went 3-1 on their way to a Superbowl win in 2006. Last year they went 0-4, and the season followed suit. The new coach is fostering a winning attitude in 2007 and the Steelers once again are 3-1 coming into this one. The Steelers have bowed their backs under Tomlin, and have allowed just one touchdown in six attempts in the last two games. We like the Steelers mindset over what we have seen from the Panthers. We see Pittsburgh scoring quite a bit in this game with the game going OVER and the Steelers keeping it close or winning.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago (Thursday 8/30 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +4
Romeo Crennel likes to win in the preseason. He's 7-4 now in preseason contests. His team is getting four points from Chicago. It's not a big surprise given that the Bears are 3-0 this season. But, Chicago is only 1-2 ATS. In the two games they were favored, they did not cover. We expect the same result here with Cleveland either winning or keeping it within a field goal. Chicago's defense has steadily allowed more points in each game this preseason going from 19 to 24 to 28. That's a lot of points to give up (24 per game). Cleveland is allowing just 17 per game on average. Again, stats are not THAT meaningful in the preseason but they can be used to judge intent. Crenel has more to play for right now. He needs wins more than Lovie Smith, to instill confidence for the regular season. The Browns would very much like to enter the regular season on a high note and a 3-1 record vs. a low note and a mediocre 2-2 record. For the Bears, this season is about getting back to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl - they could care less about the preseason. As we mentioned when we faded Chicago in week one, Super Bowl teams from the prior year own a poor record in the preseason (now 41-51-7 ATS which includes 2-4 this season). Chicago coaches were very happy with how the starters played last week as their offense looked good scored on all four of their first posessiosn (three TDs and a FG) while the defense allowed 44 yards and one first down in the first half. We suspect that was it for the Bears this preseason. We expect them now to take it easy. In fact, a quote from Chicago WR Desmond Clark after that game says it all: "We wanted to establish confidence going into the regular season." Uh Desmond, there's one more preseason game, buddy! In contrast, the Browns seem to be taking this last game seriously. Charlie Frye gets the start and he said this week, "We want to go out there and put back-to-back good performances together and use it as a carry-over into the Pittsburgh week. We don't want to take a step backwards after we took a couple steps forward." The Bears are now 2-6 ATS in their last eight preseason games when favored by 4 or less points. Cleveland is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 preseason games. Take the Browns plus the points here.
Game: Baltimore at Atlanta (Friday 8/31 7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +3.5
We rode the Falcons to the win last Monday night. As anticipated, they "showed up" for the big home opener. They played well, trying to put "the dog killer" behind them. They succeeded. They liked winning. It felt good. They will try to do it again. The motivation for this new coach and his players to win remains. They want to keep the media and fans focused on Atlanta's positive prospects, not the loss of Michael Vick. The question of whether they can win without Vick remains. They don't want to fan the flames and destroy the good will they garnered last week by losing at home here. To boot they are getting more than a field goal! While Brian Billick started out his career as a winning coach in the preseason, that motivation seems to have slipped. He started out an incredible 14-5. But, the past two seasons he has gone 4-4 and this year 1-2. So, he's gone from a 74% guy to a 45% guy. The Ravens have nothing to prove in the preseason after their superb 2006 campaign. They just want to get through it, and to the regular season. Preseason road teams that don't score much don't fare well (Baltimore averaging 16). In contrast, new coaches as home dogs fare quite well (as partially evidenced by Monday night's performance). Here we have a motivated home team with something to play for, that has been winning, getting points from an unmotivated, low-scoring road team. Take the very live home dog here.
Results: 4-1
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-August-27-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-August-22-2007
Rod Marinelli made something clear in game one of the preseason - he isn't playing conservatively. He called for an onside kick that became instrumental in the Lions victory over the Bengals. Afte...
NFL-Football-Picks-August-16-2007
While he tended to win in New York, Herm Edwards is now just 2-3 in the preseason as head coach of the Chiefs. While it's too early to judge his counterpart, Cam Cameron, last week he held true to...
NFL-Football-Picks-August-04-2007
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