Nfl Football Picks - August 28, 2010

After winning in both weeks one and two, we have started off week three at 3-1. Below are the rest of this week's plays.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	74-49 last 123 picks	60%	+$2740
NBA	104-80 last 184 picks	57%	+$3530
NFL	17-12 Season-to-Date	59%	+$780
NHL	369-273 last 642 picks	57%	+$17300
WNBA	53-42 last 95 picks	56%	+$1990
TOTAL			+$32380

 

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Detroit (Saturday 8/28 5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +2.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Eric Mangini has proven that he plays to win in these games, especially as the regular season approaches. He has led the Cleveland Browns to a 6-2 mark in weeks three and four in the preseason. The Browns have scored 117 points in their last five preseason games, which is highly significant and indicative of the desire to win here. The Browns’ regular season offense can only dream of averaging 24.4 points per game. Jake Delhomme has already passed for almost half the yards for the Browns, has a 116.1 QB rating, and will likely get even more action in this one. The Browns bring experience off the bench at QB as well in Seneca Wallace. In a game either team can win, I like the underdog and the points.

John Harbaugh has now won six straight games during the NFLX. Does that lead to a Baltimore win here? Not so fast. His past history shows fast starts and slow finishes as he is just .500 in weeks three and four of the preseason. The Giants played without Eli Manning last week and still managed 17 points. With Manning expected to play in this one, I like them to be able to at least equal that, making the points look good here. The Giants are throwing the ball a lot, averaging over 220 yards per game. I expect Bradshaw to get more carries here in game three, and he has been explosive at 10.7 yards per carry thus far. Joe Flacco has already thrown two picks in limited action for the Ravens. I like the Giants in a close one where the points are huge. I also like the OVER here. Giants games thus far have resulted in 47 and 41 points. Baltimore is averaging 20 points per game on offense. I expect the offenses, with first stringers seeing more action, and having worked out the kinks somewhat in their first two games, to have success enough to push this game OVER the total.

John Fox's early years showed a coach with a penchant to win in the NFLX, but as his time on the sidelines increased, the desire to win in preseason has diminished to zero. That zero is the amount of wins the Panthers have in the NFLX over the last two years, going just 3-11 in their last 14. That certainly doesn't represent numbers where you want to be laying a field goal. Jeff Fisher has always had the attitude if they’re keeping score, then he wants to win. That is what he has done, going 30-24 including 10-5 most recently in the NFLX. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are 15-5 ATS as a road underdog. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 2-10 ATS following a preseason straight-up loss. I like Tennessee in this one. I also like this game to go OVER the total. With Vince Young and Chris Johnson on the field, this Titans offense can score and I expect them to do just that here. They have averaged 21 points per game with starters seeing limited action. Carolina hasn't gotten much offense thus far this preseason but I think that leads to them making a concerted effort to turn that around here. When instilled as a road underdog, the Titans are 15-5 OVER in the preseason under Jeff Fisher. That includes a 9-2 OVER mark as a road dog of 3 points or less and 14-2 OVER to a total of 35.5 to 38 points.

This is a big game for Pete Carroll, as he wants his Seahawks to get the feel good of winning. Despite it being the preseason, there is simply more at stake here from an emotional feel-good for the Seahawks, vs. a team that is pretty much set. Brad Childress has a losing record in weeks three and four of the preseason, so I don't expect the Vikings to be bringing it in this one. Seattle are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 preseason games following a loss. The Seahawks have long been a good play-on team in the NFLX. They have now gone 12 straight games without losing any of them by more than a field goal. With this one sitting a good margin above that, I like the Seahawks here.

Wade Phillips owns a career 16-11 mark in the NFLX with two teams. He also appears to put more into games as the regular season gets closer as he is 9-3 in weeks three and four. Gary Kubiak has yet to win here at 0-2 and that shouldn't change as he is just 1-3 in week three, when teams extend minutes for starters. The Texans have now allowed 132 points in their last five games during the NFLX which comes to 26.4 points per game. That doesn't bode well for a team in a favorite role, especially in game three where they have averaged just 15 ppg in their franchise history. I'll side with Dallas in this one.

The Bears have shown no signs of wanting to win in the NFLX having lost already 10-25 and 17-32. Lovey Smith is even at 3-3 in week three games. The Bears have done nothing to move the ball, as they gained a total of 216 yards in week 1, and although the numbers look better in week two with 338 total yards, a bunch of that came on an 89-yard run, so the rest of the Bears plays netted 249 - hardly a team playing to win. Arizona has to replace Kurt Warner, and the ball has been in the air a lot, as they try to move the ball. The Cards threw the ball 34 times in week one, and 40 times a week ago. It hasn't really clicked for them yet, which is one reason no one wants a piece of them this week. But, I expect the Cards QBs to play better this week. The Bears are basically taking a knee on offense, while Arizona is putting it in the air really trying to make something happen. I like Arizona here.

The ground work was laid by Mike Singletary in his first post-game press conference when he steamed at the lack of effort and called out his players. He has definitely gotten his team's attention, and he is too competitive and fiery to lay down - even in exhibition games. The Niners' record backs this up as he is 5-1 and I expect a big effort (as always) out of the Niners in this one. The Niners are averaging 26 ppg thus far while the Raiders are allowing 24+ in their last five in the NFLX. This is a situation with two coaches hungry to win, which usually means a lot more points than the care-free attitudes most bring into this one, the difference is the Niners have better personnel and better play on defense. I like San Francisco and the OVER in this one.

Results: 3-7

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• View our nfl picks week four here.
• Check out our updated nfl picks week 5.
• Check out our updated nfl week six picks.
• View our updated nfl week seven picks.
• View nfl picks week 8 here.
• Take a look at our week 9 nfl picks here.
• View our updated week ten nfl picks.
• Updated today: nfl week eleven picks.
• Read our nfl week 12 picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our week thirteen nfl picks.
• Here we show our nfl picks week 14.
• Read our week fifteen nfl picks here.
• Hop over to our week three nfl picks here.
• View our 2010 NFL team win totals here.
• Check out our updated week one nfl picks.
• View nfl picks week two here.
• Updated today: nfl handicapping services.
• View nfl expert picks here.
• Updated today: 2010 NFL prior picks results.
• View our updated nfl predictions.
• Read our confidence pool picks here.
• Check out NFL game previews here.
• Take a look at our Why NFL underdogs are a smart bet here.
• Hop over to our NFL playoffs betting here.
• Check out NFL football prior predictions here.
• Read our NFL spreads here.
• Hop over to our sports betting football here.
• View our updated nfl picks blog.
• Don't forget to read our NFL Football Game Analysis here.
• Here we show our NFL football ATS records .
• Check out our updated this years super bowl predictions.
• Take a look at our halftime prop bets here.
• Hop over to our nfl week sixteen picks here.
• Here we show our nfl week 17 picks.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-August-25-2010
There was a time when Bill Belichick went all out to win these games as he started his coaching career in the preseason going 13-4. He has since had a losing straight up record at 12-14. Steve Sp...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-22-2010
Brad Childress of the Vikings has now won four of five preseason games, and a look at last week confirms he is out to win. While most teams are rotating in three or four QBs with the starter getting v...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2010
It would appear that the Steelers dominated the Lions at home last week as they whipped-up on them pretty good in a 23-7 final. A closer look reveals that simply wasn't the case, as the Lions outg...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2010
The Colts have a lethal offense behind Peyton Manning in the regular season and their offense is set with little need to test things out. There seems to be an organizational policy that when the games...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-15-2010
The Colts have been one of the NFL's biggest no shows when it comes to the NFLX, but I like them here. How can we turn down points on a home dog? Home underdogs have performed very well historical...