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Football Winning Picks - August 29, 2008Last week we finished 6-5 for a winning week. We're sitting at 57% for the preseason thus far. This week we've got seven picks (inlcuding our 4-unit Preseason Game of the Year) as well as our final division previews... Our NFL season win totals predictions have hit 67% (24-12) the past three seasons. If you haven't received our picks for 2008, reply and let us know.  Today's NFL Football Picks: In contrast to veteran coach Mike Shanahan winning these preseason games with regularity, Eagles coach Andy Reid has taken the Tony Dungy approach, attempting to just get out healthy. Unfortunately, Philadelphia has already taken some hits on the injury front, as wideout Kevin Curtis will miss the start of the regular season. Reid has compiled a 15-24 ATS mark in the preseason, and his worst mark has been week 4, where he is a lowly 2-7 ATS. It's clear his mind is focused on the next week - the first meaningful week. Eric Mangini has led his club to a 7-4 preseason mark, and hasn't lost the finale yet. We will ride the coaching mindset, which says Jets here. Game: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (Thursday 8/28 7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) It is quite clear that Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy has no interest in winning preseason games. After all he and his team have accomplished, winning is nothing here. Instead, he likes to use it to evaluate players, while keeping key players as healthy as possible. Dungy has a 10-19 ATS record in there games and there is no reason to expect his mindset to change here. He is the only coach in the last 12 years to have a team go 0-5 in the preseason (in 2005) and the Colts went on to a 14-2 season. The Colts will not only be without Manning for this one, but backup Jim Sorgi has a bad knee and may not play either. The Colts tally in the preseason is now 3-15 over the last 18 games. With prominent week 3 injuries to key players around the league covering the newspapers and dominating the airwaves, we expect Dungy to remain quite conservative. Coming off a big goosegg on offense last week, we look for Cincinnati to care a bit more about scoring here than you might normally expect. This isn't necessarily a pro Bengals pick, but rather a bet on a Colts no-show, getting over a field goal to boot. Game: St. Louis at Kansas City (Thursday 8/28 7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) An interstate battle closes out the preseason for these two teams as the host Chiefs take on the St. Louis Rams. The Chiefs continue to have QB issues, as last week they were shut out. All three QB's that saw action threw an interception. In contrast, the Rams have been impressive this NFL preseason and are fresh off a 24-10 win vs. the Ravens last week. Underdogs off two straight wins have been a very good bet in the NFL preseason. We think St. Louis is a bit more motivated and simply playing better. We like their chances at an outright win and at +4, we like them quite a bit as we see a Chiefs blowout very unlikely. Game: Miami at New Orleans (Thursday 8/28 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on New Orleans +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Tampa Bay at Houston (Thursday 8/28 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Houston +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -110 The Bucs are bringing five QB's to this one, and with two spots being secured by Garcia and Johnson, the other three (Simms, Griese, and McCownwill likely see a lot of action) as they fight for the third spot. We expect the Tampa offense to suffer as QB's rotate in and out, without a lot of continuity. The Texans have moved from a 3-point favorite to a home dog. Tampa Bay has allowed just 13 points per game this preseason. Houston's defense hasn't been as good but with the QB situation facing Tampa Bay, we expect the Bucs to struggle to put together much on offense. We like the home dog here. And, as a contrarian pick (five of their combined six games have gone OVER so far), we like the UNDER a lot. Game: Denver at Arizona (Friday 8/29 10:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Denver +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) While no other coach amongst current NFL coaches has won as many as 30 preseason games, Coach Shanahan has now won 40. His 40-19 record ATS in these games shows a mindset a bit different than most coaches that put their teams on the field here. While most coaches use week 4 to heal injuries, and field what amounts to a taxi squad, Shanahan is actually best (for us) in week 4 where his teams have posted an impressive 9-2 ATS mark. For Arizona coach Ken Wisenhunt the outcome here has not been so important. His teams are now 2-5, and we don't expect to see much from the Cardinals in this one. Backing coaches like that in the favorite role is a quick way to the poorhouse. The Broncos are always a good choice here under Shanahan, especially in week 4. We faded them successfully last week as we expected an inspired effort from Green Bay. The fact that the Broncos lost, at home, is even more reason to like them to bounce back here, getting 3 points. Over the past fifteen years, this Broncos team is 13-2 ATS off an upset loss in the preseason! They are 7-0 ATS during that span off a loss at home. We'll back the Broncs to come out fighting and win this game. Results: 4-2 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-August-25-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-23-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-14-2008 |
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