darrell,

Last week we saw lots of favorites win (63%) and some in huge blowouts. It was a week of extreme results. Seven teams scored 30+ points and eleven teams scored 10 or less! That's 18 "extreme" results.

Compare that to the prior week when there were just6 teams scoring 30+ or 10-. That's a 300% increase. It's time for the public and the linesmakersto overract to last week'sresults and we'll gladly take advantage of that. There's seven picks that jump out to methis weekend.

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Game: Arizona at Chicago (Friday 8/25 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on OVER 34

The Cards are off an awful offensive performance, scoring just 3 points in a 30-3 loss to New England. This will motivate them to perform offensively here. Teams off horrible offensive performances on the road produce OVERs at a very consistent rate in their next game in the preseason. We'll get to see a healthy dose of Warner to Fitzgerald, Boldin and Johnson here and that will produce more points than it did last week. Chicago's defense, meanwhile is feeling good about themselves after holding San Diego to just 3 points last game. They won't be as motivated here. Everyone's on the UNDER here as they see a team that scored 3 points last week facing a team that held their opponent to 3 points last game. Don't overreact. The total is low at 34 - take the OVER.

Philadelphia is off two pretty bad performances sandwiched between one good one. They scored 10 points vs. Oakland in their opener, beat Cleveland 20-7 the next week, and lost 10-20 to Baltimore last week. They are averaging just 13.3 points per game and they are sitting at 33%. No big surprise there as Andy Reid is a coach who doesn't value winning in the preseason (9-17 coming into this game). Pittsburgh has put up two stinkers as well. They lost to Arizona 13-21 in week one and to Minnesota 10-17 last week. They are 0-2 avergaging just 11.5 points per game. As a result of four lackluster offensive outings for both of these teams, we see the total set here at 35. I love the OVER in this one and I think Pittsburgh wins. This is week 3 of the preseason in which we see starters play the most of any preseason game. Is Pittsburgh's offense this bad? No way! The starters know this is their final warm up for the regular season. Both of these teams have losing records and haven't put forth anything offensively to be proud of. They both scored just 10 points last week. They want to perform here so they can relax next week. Pittsburgh has a good defense but Philadelphia really does not. Pittsburgh's offense under Ben Roethlisberger, lest us not forget, is awesome. He's played just two series so far total. With him getting more playing time here, I expect Pittsburgh to score. They need this game (being 0-2) more than does Philly. Small underdogs struggling offensively hit at a crazy 90%+ rate in the NFL preseason and 0-2 teams also do well. Go OVER the 35 and Pitt + the field goal.

Another very low total here based on last week's performance. Jacksonville lost last week 10-17. Tampa Bay is off two games averaging 21 TOTAL points per game. But, we easily forget that Jacksonville was party to a 31-26 shootout in week one vs. Miami. Horrible offensive teams like Tampa Bay (13 PPG) when facing average defensive teams like Jacksonville, go OVER at an 86% clip in the preseason. This total has shrunk down too much. I expect Tampa's starters, seeing extended action, to put up some points here to bust out of their funk. John Gruden likes to win in the preseason. He's 14-7 coming into this year. Coming off his loss to Miami, scoring just 10 points, I believe will motivate him to push his team to do better this week. Jacksonville is also motivated to improve their offense. Last week David Garrard had an awful showing vs. Carolina (86 yards 2 INTs and 3 fumbles). Leftwhich owns the #1 spot and I expect to see a decent amount of him this week, and thus better production and more points. Over the low number here.

The Cowboys offense exploded last game as both Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo were near perfect. Terry Glenn played out of his mind and all of this I believe will motivate Terrel Owens to play here. He knows that if he misses this game, he risks not starting the season under Parcells. T.O. could see decent playing time if his hamstring is in good shape as he hasn't seen much action and Parcells wants to see what he can do. Against San Francisco, Dallas' starting offense should roll here in a big way. Dallas could put up 30 points in this game. Dallas' defense has been outstanding and it's time for a bit of a letdown for them. San Francisco only scored 7 last week but did put up 28 vs. Chicago in week one. I expect a solid effort on the part of the Niners here after last week's game. Over the total here.

Nice contrarian situation here. The Pats are off a 30-3 drubbing of Arizona. Their offense has scored 53 points in two games. They face a struggling Washington Redskins team here that, on the surface, looks like easy pickin's. The Skins have scored just 17 points in their first two games and Clinton Portis is done for the preseason. But, this is why I like Washington here. They are already in full-blown panic-mode. Prior to the preseason they were the talk of the NFC East - picked by many to win it. Yes, it's only the preseason but after getting beaten by an average score of 8.5 to 23 in their first two games, they are wanting/needing a win here. Starting out 0-3 is not a good thing for any team. Head coach Joe Gibbs said after last week's game "I'm concerned all the way across the board. I think it's not playing, and me not coaching. When we show up and do stuff like that at home, I take it real serious. I think our players do too. We're going to do something about it." You can bet that this team is busting butt right now and want to win. Meanwhile, the Pats are sitting pretty. About last week's gaem, New Enlgnad coach Bill Belichick said "I thought our players tried to compete pretty well. We got a lot of snaps on both sides of the ball and I thought that there were some positives things." For Belichick this is saying a lot! This guy is a glass is half-empty guy and that's about as positive a remark as you will hear from him all season. The preseason is much about emotion and situations on here's one where we get a very motivated winless dog against a content favorite off a big win. Underdogs off two offensive terrible outings tend to work hard and bounce back in a good way the next week. Gibbs has confirmed what we know - the underdog is going to try very hard this week. Skins plus the points here.

Houston is playing their part perfectly this preseason. A team off several horrible seasons, with a new coach, is playing to win. They want to know what it feels like to win. They want to set the right tone. They want to get the fans and press on their side. The Texans, under Gary Kubiak, have scored 25.5 points per game as they are simply trying harder than their opponents. Here they get a team off a big fat win. Denver rolled over Tennessee winning 35-10. Now they face the lowly Houston Texans in a preseason game. Which team will be more motivated? Houston. Undefeated underdogs of greater than a field goal are excellent bets in the preseason (cover the spread two thirds of the time). Houston has momentum and motivation and to boot we are getting six points. Take Houston plus the points on Sunday.