Nfl Betting Pick - August 27, 2010

We are off to a good start to the preseason, winning in both weeks one and two. We have gone 14-11 good for +$430. We start week three with four picks from the Thursday and Friday games. Saturday games will be sent out Saturday morning.

Top resources for this week:

1. My NFC Divisional Previews are ready. Read them below.
2. My NFL season win totals (62% lifetime on Best Bets) are here.
3. If you missed my preseason NFL betting philosophy, go here.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	70-47 last 117 picks	60%	+$2390
NBA	104-80 last 184 picks	57%	+$3530
NFL	14-11 Season-to-Date	56%	+$430
NHL	369-273 last 642 picks	57%	+$17300
WNBA	49-39 last 88 picks	56%	+$1830
TOTAL			+$31520

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: St. Louis at New England (Thursday 8/26 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on St. Louis +7.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 37.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

There was a time when Bill Belichick went all out to win these games as he started his coaching career in the preseason going 13-4. He has since had a losing straight up record at 12-14. Steve Spagnuolo has issues to deal with here as he attempts to change the culture of losing with the Rams. He has a 4-2 mark in the preseason which includes finishing on a winning note a perfect 2-0 in week three and four. Yes, this is the most "real" game of the preseason, with starters typically seeing the most action. But, 7.5 points is a ton in the preseason. Lines above 7 have occured only three times in the past seven years. The ATS record of the dog in those games? 3-0. Preseason games are typically low scoring affairs, but such has not been the case for the Patriots. They are 7-2 to the OVER in their last nine preseason games and are allowing 21 ppg in those nine, including 25.5 ppg in the last two week three contests. Their first two games this season have averaged 45 points. I like St. Louis and the OVER in this one.

Mike Shanahan owns the best preseason record of any active coach having pulled off a 42-20 mark going back to his days with the Denver Broncos. That mark includes a 17-7 run in week's three and four. He simply likes to win, and with this being a big test for his new team with starters going, he is very likely to have his team play to win here. Rex Ryan has gone 3-3 in the preseason since taking over the Jets last year and has shown no desire to put these games in the win column. The Redskins have averaged nearly 300 yards in the air in the two games played, while the Jets have basically taken a knee on offense averaging just 237 yards a game, ranking 30th in the league. I'll take the points and go with Washington in this one.

The Eagles are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS thus far this year. Under Andy Reid, they are just 14-26 straight-up in the preseason. That includes a 1-3 mark in each of two of the last three seasons. It's clear Reid doesn't care about winning these games, yet his team is asked to win on the road here. It's true that Todd Haley has also shown little interest in winning, but his track record isn't as long as Reid's, and his team is at home, getting points. Underdogs that have yet to win in the preseason are a good bet in week three. Home dogs are a good bet any week. I like the Chiefs here.

Results: 3-1

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Check out nfl week four picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week five picks.
• View nfl week six picks here.
• Hop over to our nfl week seven picks here.
• View our week eight nfl picks here.
• View our updated week 9 nfl picks.
• Updated today: nfl week 10 picks.
• Don't forget to read our nfl picks week 11 here.
• View nfl picks week 12 here.
• Here we show our nfl picks week thirteen .
• Hop over to our week fourteen nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to read our nfl week 15 picks here.
• Don't forget to read our nfl picks week three here.
• View 2010 NFL team over-under predictions here.
• Hop over to our week one nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our week 2 nfl picks.
• Read our nfl handicapping service here.
• View expert picks here.
• Here we show our 2010 football season prior picks.
• Don't forget to read our nflpick here.
• View our football picks pool here.
• View NFL game matchups here.
• Check out NFL betting philosophy here.
• Check out How to bet the NFL playoffs here.
• View NFL picks here.
• Hop over to our NFL spreads here.
• Read our football sportsbook here.
• Hop over to our nfl blog here.
• Updated today: Football Game-of-Week Analysis.
• Don't forget to visit our NFL ATS records.
• Read our Superbowl predictions here.
• Don't forget to visit our football prop bets.
• Here we show our week sixteen nfl picks.
• Check out nfl picks week seventeen here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-August-22-2010
Brad Childress of the Vikings has now won four of five preseason games, and a look at last week confirms he is out to win. While most teams are rotating in three or four QBs with the starter getting v...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2010
It would appear that the Steelers dominated the Lions at home last week as they whipped-up on them pretty good in a 23-7 final. A closer look reveals that simply wasn't the case, as the Lions outg...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2010
The Colts have a lethal offense behind Peyton Manning in the regular season and their offense is set with little need to test things out. There seems to be an organizational policy that when the games...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-15-2010
The Colts have been one of the NFL's biggest no shows when it comes to the NFLX, but I like them here. How can we turn down points on a home dog? Home underdogs have performed very well historical...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-10-2010
This matchup reminds me of the old movie "Trading Places", as the New Orleans Saints are the team entering here as defending Super Bowl Champs and not the New England Patriots. Bill Belichic...