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Predictions Nfl Free Picks - August 23, 2008We went 3-1 on Friday to push our season-to-date record to 10-6 (63%). That's right in line with our historical record in the preseason (now 79-50 life-to-date). Below we have six Saturday picks. While we had planned on making one a 5-unit play, the line moved significantly and we have backed it down in strength. Our NFL season win totals predictions have hit 67% (24-12) the past three seasons. If you haven't received them yet, just reply to this email and let us know.  Today's NFL Football Picks: The Browns got caught in the wave of emotion last week in New York as the Giants made their first appearance in the Meadowlands since winning last year's Super Bowl. We expected New York to take it easy but they came out of the gate extremely strong. Cleveland was down 30-3 before they knew what hit them. But, they showed the moxie to keep clawing back and finished just 3 points short. Offense has not been the issue thus far in the preseason as the Browns have scored 54 points in their first two games. This is a week for the defense to bear down. Rod Marinelli has yet to win in his three years in Detroit after week two of the preseason. The Browns like to put the ball in the air, and the Lions have allowed 64% completions thus far, showing no ability to stop the air game. This Cleveland offense can take advantage of Detroit's weakness. Romeo Crennel has gone 2-1 in Cleveland in week three, and sitting at 0-2, we expect a good effort by the Browns who steal one in Detroit. Game: Kansas City at Miami (Saturday 8/23 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Last week the Dolphins got their second win since the 2007 preseason. It wasn't a result of what the Dolphins did, but rahter what Jacksonville didn't do. The Jaguars piled up an unbelievable 32 first downs, yet managed to score just 14 points. They also won the special teams battle compiling a 130-46 yard advantage. So the Dolphins, who scored just 6 points in week one, appears to us to be a false favorite. Herman Edwards is 15-7 ATS during his NFL head coaching career in the preseason after week 1, and that includes 5-2 in the pivital week three matchups. We like the Chiefs to likley win this one outright so we will grab them with the points here. Game: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (Saturday 8/23 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay +3 (-120) (risk 2 to win 1.7) Jon Gruden has shown he likes his teams to get in the mindset of winning in the preseason, as his teams have posted a 29-15 ATS record during the preseason. This year has been no different as the Bucs have won their first two games, looking impressive on both sides of the ball. They have outscored their opponents 43-16 in the process. The Jaguars have been a model of inconsistency. They ran the ball well in game one, but couldn't move the ball in the air. Last week they passed the ball much better, but could get nothing going on the ground, losing to the Dolphins. Jon Gruden is 13-5 ATS in the preseason in games with a total set at 35 or less. The wrong team is favored here and we'll back the live dog. Game: New Orleans at Cincinnati (Saturday 8/23 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110 As pre-season games go, there is always value when you look at the total in this range, as almost all games go off in the 30s. Sometimes the perceptions created by a high scoring game such as the Saints 31-27 to the Texans last week, and the Bengals allowing 27 against the lowly Lions, make the odds-makers add a few points the following week. The fact is only 11 of 31 games played this pre-season through week two have topped the 42 point mark (35.4%). We will ride the value in this one and play this one to go UNDER the total. Game: Pittsburgh at Minnesota (Saturday 8/23 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -110 The Vikings are not a high-scoring team, relying instead on a top rushing defense to stay in games. Now their starting quarterback, who usually sees two to three quarters of action in week three, is out as Tavaris Jackson went down with a knee injury last week. The Steelers offense is also looking rusty. They took the opening kickoff in game one and drove 80 yards in eight plays, but since they have not sustained a TD drive of more than five plays. It is an offense, even with Big Ben on the field, that hasn't found itself yet. The Steelers first unit defense will be on the field a lot for this one. That could be trouble for an enemic Viking offense, as the Steelers were the #1 rated defense last season, allowing just 266 yards per game. We like this one to play low, and will ride the UNDER. Game: Baltimore at St. Louis (Saturday 8/23 8:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Both these teams are coming off disappointing seasons and look to rebound in 2008. Could the Ravens have the steal of the draft in Ray Rice? He has looked superb averaging 6.4 yards per carry thus far and should see a lot of action in this one. Kyle Boller has also fared well completing 70% of his passes thus far. Scott Linehan will enter his third year as the Rams coach, and he has never put much stock into winning these games (3-7 ATS). His week three performance has been no different as the Rams have gone 0-2 his first two years in this week. He was still using a four-QB rotation into game two that produced just 7 points in that game. The offense has been outscored 20 to 40. We will back the Ravens with a new coach and more of a desire to win, vs a coach that has shown no interest in the scoreboard during the preseason. Results: 2-4 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-14-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-10-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-05-2008 |
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