Nfl Favorites - August 26, 2007
We notched a winning week again last week going 3-2 for 60%. That puts us at 6-2 (75%) for +8.6 units so far on the preseason.
This week we take a look at the AFC East and West and make five picks. If you missed them, you can take a look at our NFC previews.
Check out our guide to picking the NFL preseason. And in case you missed it, check out our 2007 NFL Season Team Wins Predictions (low-unit) and the high-unit team wins predictions.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Detroit at Indianapolis (Saturday 8/25 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit +6
Rod Marinelli made something clear in game one of the preseason - he isn't playing conservatively. He called for an onside kick that became instrumental in the Lions victory over the Bengals. After the game, back-up QB Dan Orlovsky shared something that Marinelli has been preaching since coming to Detroit. "Coach Marinelli came in here last year and preached winning, whether it was a 1-on-1 route in practice or a preseason game," Orlovsky said. "Losing is going to be wiped out as a culture around here." The Lions, thanks in a big part to major injuries, weren't able to win much last season. But they have been true to those words in 2007 as they have jumped out to a 2-0 record. They put the ball in the air 47 times vs. the Bengals and scored 17 fourth quarter points. They got up 17 on Cleveland and only then put the ball on the ground. This is a coach that wants to win, period. Indianapolis is fresh off a Superbowl win and this preseason is am unfortunate necessity, not a competition. They have nothing to prove and as such have dropped their first two and continue to get their work in. The outcome simply isn't important to this team. Winless teams as a favorite during the preseason, playing a 2-win team, have been horrible ATS. They have covered just 35% of the time in about 100 games. Sure, game three is when we see the starters the most. And in a regular season contest, Indy would be a prohibitive favorite. But this isn't the regular season. Even the Indy starters in this game don't care much about winning. It is clear which team is bringing it and which team is going through the motions. Don't forget that the Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home preseason games and 2-8 ATS in their last ten preseason overall! We will grab the 6 points and play the Lions as a very live dog.
Game: Tampa Bay at Miami (Saturday 8/25 7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami +2.5
John Gruden has changed. He used to win Super Bowls and now can't win anything. But that's actually not what we are talking about here. We're talking about his preseason philosophy. After posting a good 17-8 preseason record through 2004, he has since gone 4-6 in the exhibition games. The Bucs have allowed 21 points per game in their first two - a lot for preseason. Cam Cameron has started out like many new coaches - with an emphasis on winning. He said before the preseason, "We want to make the people in South Florida proud of this football team and people respond to people who work hard." This guy wants to win badly. Cameron added, "How much we will score, I don't know, but we're not going to stop trying to score. I can promise you this: We're not going to try to keep games close. Even if you try to score on every down, games are going to be close, so why try to keep them close?" The Fins were underdogs in their first two games and won them both. Here again they are in the dog role, at home. We expect Cameron to again demand a good showing. This game is more important than the first two as this is the only real preseason test for the starters. Gruden said after last game that he was very pleased with his starters ("I like the way we started"). He was not pleased with the play of the backups so we may see more backups in this game than you might expect for a week 3 game. We'll back the home dog in this one.
Game: Dallas at Houston (Saturday 8/25 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Dallas -3
Wade Phillips has brought something to the Dallas Cowboys this preseason. It is the first time the Cowpokes have opened by scoring 20+ in both of the first two preseason games. Phillips has always put value on winning in the preseason. He's now 14-9 in these games in his head coaching career. In Dallas, he appears to want to put his less-than-stellar head coaching past behind him. He wants the players, fans and outspoken owner to like and support him and to be excited for the preseason. He wants to win. Heck, the Denver Broncos whined about it after last week's game saying that Dallas blitzed too much. John Lynch accused Phillips and the Cowboys of "breaking the code of ethics of the preseason." What?!? John, we love you but calling out an opponent for playing hard instead of laying back just makes you look petty. The main point here, though, is that Dallas is bringing it, even in the preseason. Those two back-to-back high-scoring wins got us wondering. What do teams do in their third game in such a situation? Of course we checked. It turns out that when teams score 20+ in the first two NFL preseason games, they win and cover 65% of the time in game three! These teams have shown in two games that they are trying to score and trying to win. Marion Barber has received double digit carries in both games and Tyson Thompson and Julius Jones are running a lot and running hard. Thompson's superb performances have been a big surprise so all three are working hard for regular season carries. The Cowboys also fit into another explosive third week system that features winning road teams coming off a home game that is good for a 39-15 (73%) mark. We aren't much for playing into the teeth of a home dog, as they usually do some barking in the preseason. But, Dallas fits a system that is completely opposite of that trend. Certain road favorites playing well are 10-2 ATS in week three and Dallas qualifies this week. We have seen a mindset in Dallas in the first two games - one of playing hard and playing to win. Their talent is certainly much better than Houston's too. Week 3 games see more play from starters than any preseason game so we should see the talent make a difference here. Dallas is now 19-6 ATS in their last 25 preseason games and we'll take them get to 3-0 this season.
Game: New York Jets at New York Giants (Saturday 8/25 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 37 -110
This is an interesting game featuring two teams that not only compete in the same market, but play at home on the same field. They have met in week 3 of the preseason now for over a decade, and some things stand-out through all the history. Coaches come and go, but regardless of who is pacing the sidelines, this game has never been used for "showing up" the opposing cross-city team. Nor is it a life and death match. It is invariably played close to the vest and conservatively. The last 11 years have seen the game decided by one score or less nine times. Jets head coach Eric Mangini and Giants coach Tom Coughlin squared off for the first time last year and the game was true to historical form - a highly conservative match. That game featured 58 rushing attempts and just 28 first downs. The total yardage was limited to just 473. Needless to say, this was a game played not necessarily to win, but rather to get out healthy and in-tact, and move on. The last six games between these two teams in the preseason have played UNDER, with an average of 28 total points scored. Eight of the last 10 have gone UNDER. The average rushing attempts the last three years has been 61 per game, while the average yards gained by both teams has averaged 453. Over that span, they've averaged just 27 total first downs per game. The Giants lost four players to injury last game in the exhibition season, so they aren't likely to go crazy here with starters and risk more injuries. Another interesting wrinkle is that these teams play each other this year in the regular season. Do you think they are going to show anything here in a meangingless game that might tip their competitor to tendencies in the regular season game? The last three times these teams met in the preseason and regular season, the pre-season game was even more conservative than normal. Those three games totaled 74 points (less than 25 per game), with no game totaling as many as 30 points! This game gets shortened from both sides with conservative game plans and play, going UNDER the total.
Game: San Diego at Arizona (Saturday 8/25 10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Arizona +3
San Diego enters this game off an impressive 30-13 win over St. Louis. Arizona is now 0-2 and they've given up 60 points in the process. As a result, San Diego is laying a full field goal on the road. A perfect time to go contrarian and back the Cardinals! We love them here and predict an outright win. That San Diego win last week could easily be San Diego's last of the preseason. They really don't have anything to prove or play for after a 14-win season. And, coming off that kind of game and facing an 0-2 team, it is unlikely that they will be up for this game. Norv Turn is not a coach that puts a premium on winning in the preseason. In his head coaching career, he's just 18-20 in exhibition play. What about the mindset of Arizona? Here you have a new head coach taking over a bad team. He's started 0-2 and the Cardinals defense has looked pitiful. We think there's a lot of pressure on him to win one here. Going 0-3 and losing a second straight home game will definitely lead to murmurs around Arizona, questioning where this team is headed. This is not what Ken Wisenhunt or the players need or want. New NFL coaches instilled as home underdogs are very good plays in the preseason and teams off two straight losses (last one by double digits) are nearly perfect in their next game. This is the perfect situation for an NFL preseason pick - a bad home team that is extremely motivated to win vs. a fat and happy road favorite that the public loves. The Cardinals are 17-10 ATS in their last 27 preseason games and they've covered four of the last five preseason games they've played vs. the Chargers. Arizona with the +3 point cushion here.
Results: 2-3
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-August-16-2007
While he tended to win in New York, Herm Edwards is now just 2-3 in the preseason as head coach of the Chiefs. While it's too early to judge his counterpart, Cam Cameron, last week he held true to...
NFL-Football-Picks-August-04-2007
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