Nfl Picks - August 21, 2010

We have started the week a disappointing 0-2. Below are my Saturday picks. Sunday and Monday picks will follow tomorrow.

Top resources for this week:

1. My AFC Divisional Previews are ready. Read them below.

2. My NFL season win totals (62% lifetime on Best Bets) are here.

3. If you missed my preseason NFL betting philosophy, go here.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at New Yorks Giants (Saturday 8/21 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New Yorks Giants +4.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

It would appear that the Steelers dominated the Lions at home last week as they whipped-up on them pretty good in a 23-7 final. A closer look reveals that simply wasn't the case, as the Lions outgained the Steelers for the game. The misleading final score (and fact that Big Ben will play) has led to the oddsmakers and public believing Pittsburgh is out to play here. But, with the Giants posted as a rather extreme home dog, history is riding with them. Home underdogs of 3 or more have gone on to cover 66% of the time in these games, so we definitely have a live dog in this one. The Giants are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last ten preseason home games so getting 4 points here is huge.

Do you think Todd Haley might be hearing the boos from the KC fans? The regular season has been a bust here for years, and now the Chiefs are 0-5 in the preseason with him on the sidelines. Last week his team barely managed to reach double-digits. I think that not only is he not only going to be tempted to keep the starters in longer, he will opt for that decision, open things up and get some points and quiet the boo birds back home. Raheem Morris has shown to be quite different than Jon Gruden in Tampa. Gruden was 30-16 in these games while Morris is off to a 1-4 start with the Bucs. They lost to Miami, scoring just 7 points, and that sets the stage for two needy coaches to rev up the offense and put some points on the board to quiet the critics. In Tampa Bay's last 11 home games during the presason, the OVER has hit at a 73% clip (8-3). I look for this one to play OVER the total. 

For some teams preseason games take on no meaning. But there is reason to believe that Steve Spagnuolo wants to win this game, or at least put up a decent fight. His team was embarrassed 28-7 last week and is in need of a confidence boost. He has responded very well in the role of an underdog as his teams have gone 3-1 both straight-up and ATS when posted as a dog in the NFLX. The Rams saw Minnesota use Sage Rosenfels just about the entire game, completing 23-34 for 310 yards and three TDs. They won't be facing that in this one. I like the Rams to fight hard here and get the cover.

Under John Fox, the Panthers have had a lot of very good preseasons. Fox is the only coach over the previous seven preseasons to run the table at 4-0 three different times. The Jets are off perhaps the only preseason game that you can make an argument for meaning anything, as they beat the NY Giants in an important rivalry game (as important as preseason games get). As a result, they should be less than up for the task in this one, especially when asked to win on the road. One shinning bright spot during these games over the years beyond coaching tendencies have been home underdogs that have won at a very high rate. When that home dog is winless, we get even more motivation. I like Carolina in this one.

A lot of people think that this Oakland team can turn the corner this year, and Coach Tom Cable agrees. They showed that he likely means business in these games this year as he whipped-up on Dallas 17-9. They held the powerful Cowboys offense to just 263 total yards. Cable has a battle at QB as just two QBs competed while most teams are rotating three and four. If ever a team was mailing in a game it was the Bears last week with Jay Cutler throwing all of two passes and Matt Forte rushing the ball just four times. They were beaten by 15, never making much of an effort. Look for more of the same this week.

Wade Phillips has won a lot of preseason games, so he is definitely not one of the "take a knee" coaches that we often see during these games. Going back to his days with the Buffalo Bills, Phillips has gone 13-8 straight-up in these games, so you have to like the prospect of taking points with a coach that has won 62% in preseason. There is also the fact that this same San Diego team went into Big D last year and beat the Cowboys on their home turf 20-17. Yes, this is preseason, but that will still be on the minds of Dallas players and coaches here. The Chargers won and covered last week at home, which may be a good sign for the Cowboys as well, because the Chargers have covered both of their preseason home games just one time in the last 11 years. I like Dallas here.

Mike Shanahan put together one of the best preseason records of all time when he patrolled the sidelines in Denver. You could count on him every time the Broncos took the field. Things have changed under the regime of Josh McDaniels. In his first five preseason games, the Ponies won just once. Jim Schwartz has a Lions team that needs confidence. They do have better personnel this year, but he needs to understand the mindset of winning. He has led them to a winning record in the preseason. The Broncos did a lot of experimenting on defense last week opening the door for a lightly-offensive Cincinnati team to push across 33 points. I look for more of the same in this one, and will go with the Lions and the OVER.

The Pack are 7-10 under Mike McCarthy during the preseason, but the one place that he seems to show up in is week two. Green Bay is 3-1 in his four previous years during this week. It was apparent that Pete Carroll set out to come out aggressively for the Seahawks in his first game coaching Seattle. The Seahawks built a 20-7 lead against Tennessee early, and then basically took a knee the rest of the way in a 20-18 win. I expect things to be a lot tamer for this one. With Green Bay off a loss, and McCarthy's success in game two I look for the Packers to be the aggressor in this one. This offense can score, and aftrer allowing 27 points to Cleveland last week, I expect the Packers defense to play hard this week.

Results: 7-2

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Check out nfl week 4 picks here.
• Here we show our week five nfl picks.
• View nfl week six picks here.
• View nfl week seven picks here.
• View our updated nfl picks week 8.
• Don't forget to read our week 9 nfl picks here.
• Check out nfl picks week 10 here.
• View week 11 nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to read our week 12 nfl picks here.
• Read our nfl week thirteen picks here.
• Check out nfl week 14 picks here.
• View nfl picks week fifteen here.
• Here we show our week 3 nfl picks.
• Don't forget to visit our 2010 season win totals-NFL.
• Here we show our week one nfl picks.
• Updated today: nfl picks week two .
• View football handicapping service here.
• Don't forget to read our expert nfl pick here.
• Hop over to our 2010 NFL pick results here.
• Check out our updated free pick for monday night football.
• View football confidence pool picks here.
• Read our NFL game picks here.
• Don't forget to read our Why NFL underdogs are a smart bet here.
• Here we show our Win in the NFL playoffs.
• View our updated NFL football prior predictions .
• Here we show our NFL Football lines and odds.
• Updated today: nfl sports book.
• View our nfl picks blog here.
• Here we show our NFL Game Analysis.
• Here we show our NFL against-the-spread records.
• Take a look at our Free super bowl picks here.
• Updated today: NFL football halftime props.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 16 picks.
• View our nfl week seventeen picks here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-August-22-2010
Brad Childress of the Vikings has now won four of five preseason games, and a look at last week confirms he is out to win. While most teams are rotating in three or four QBs with the starter getting v...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2010
The Colts have a lethal offense behind Peyton Manning in the regular season and their offense is set with little need to test things out. There seems to be an organizational policy that when the games...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-15-2010
The Colts have been one of the NFL's biggest no shows when it comes to the NFLX, but I like them here. How can we turn down points on a home dog? Home underdogs have performed very well historical...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-10-2010
This matchup reminds me of the old movie "Trading Places", as the New Orleans Saints are the team entering here as defending Super Bowl Champs and not the New England Patriots. Bill Belichic...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-04-2010
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