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Expert Football Free Pick - August 21, 2009We started off on a down note going 2-4-1 in week one. We look to bounce back this week. I have picks for the week two Thursday and Friday games below. Saturday picks will be sent out by Saturday morning at the latest. I also have my AFC Preview in this week's newsletter below. In case you missed it, check out my 2009 Season Wins Predictions and my article on How to Bet the NFL preseason. Why is it good to be a Wunderdog season subscriber this NFL season?
 Today's NFL Football Picks: It is rare to see an NFL preseason pointspread in this range except for week three, when you see starters getting a lot of time on the field. It certainly makes you look hard at the abundance of points. History shows it is a good idea to take the points when the situation arises. Since 1995 when a team is getting six or more points in an NFLX game, they have delivered the money on 59.1% of the occasions for their backers, covering 122 occurrences, with an overall record of 72-50 ATS. Those numbers get even larger when you look at the AFC. When an AFC team has been afforded the luxury of six or more points, the win rate increases to an astounding 68%! That number rises even further to 71.4% when the line reaches a full seven points or more! I'm going with the Bengals here as this number is simply too high.Game: Philadelphia at Indianapolis (Thursday 8/20 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 36.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) Eagles Coach Andy Reid has shown disdain for these games and has never taken winning them seriously. Reid has a bad record in the preseason with a combined 15-26 mark in these games as coach of the Eagles and just 7-13 ATS as a favorite. Jim Caldwell lost his opener, and hopefully he is anxious to get a win under his belt at home tonight. Just like Monday Night Football was in its first 15 years or so, the NFL preseason has been characterized by dominating home underdogs as they have turned the points at home into 61% winners over the last decade. This is a good spot for Indy at home getting points, under a first year coach playing against a coach that has always puts out good teams - just not in the preseason. Indy gets the call here. I also like this game to go UNDER the total. Andy Reid over the past three years has seen his teams score an average of 13.3 points per game on the road during the preseason. That average if attained, would mean the Colts would have to reach 24 points, something they have done just three times at home in the last six years of preseason play. I also like the UNDER here.Game: Tennessee at Dallas (Friday 8/21 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 38 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) Both of these coaches, Wade Phillips of the Cowboys and Jeff Fisher of the Titans, have shown a penchant for winning in the preseason as they both have winning records with a combined record of 40-30. It is unusual to see teams put up 20 points or more in an NFLX game, but when you look at what Dallas has done under Wade Phillips, there is obviously a different approach. The Cowboys have played 10 preseason home games under Phillips, avareaging 21.2 ppg. The Titans under Fisher have taken a similar approach as the Fisher-led Titans have scored 20+ in eight of their last eleven preseason games. This one has the makings of a 40+ game, and I will go with the over here.Game: Atlanta at St. Louis (Friday 8/21 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Rams new head coach Steve Spagnuolo showed a desire to create a winning culture as he won his first NFLX game on the road with a late fourth-quarter TD. The Falcons dropped their opener, allowing 454 yards to the lowly Lions - truly an indication that, coming off a playoffs year, there is more evaluating going on in Atlanta than desire to win. Second-year Coach Mike Smith played things differently a year ago, establishing a winning attitude, covering three of four. How different is the approach this season? Consider the fact that Atlanta allowed three TDs in the entire preseason under then first-year coach Smith, while they allowed three in week one to the Lions. The Rams are in the role under a first year head coach and playing at home, so he will want to show the fans that there is some meaningful football to be played in St. Louis this season. Over the last eight years, they have been superb at home, playing to an 11-5 mark in their home preseason games and I look for the Rams to cover here. I also like the UNDER here as games involving home dogs in certain situations have hit at a 70% UNDER mark including 10-4 UNDER the past three seasons.Game: Kansas City at Minnesota (Friday 8/21 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +3 (+100) (risk 2 to win 2) Todd Haley, newly appointed head coach for the Chiefs, will be looking to getting his first win under his belt after dropping the opener to Gary Kubiak's Houston Texans, who are now winning 61.5% of their preseason games under Kubiak. The Vikings made a splash this week (sigh) by signing Brett Favre to a two-year $25 million contract, and the speculation is that they will be cutting Tarvaris Jackson free. That will leave them with a QB dilemma in this one as Favre is not ready to be taking snaps, and even if he does, he will not be very effective. The QB rotation for the Vikings is in trouble in this one. This definitely looks like a good spot for Haley to get win number one, so I'll go with the Chiefs here. Results: 4-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-11-2009 |
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