darrell,

We're 4-2 thus far and we've got a big week 2 on tap with three picks on Friday, five on Saturday and one on Sunday. I just love the preseason :)

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
NFL	4-2 Season-to-Date	67%	+2
MLB	17-6 last 23 picks	74%	+5.0
NHL	208-140 last season	60%	+24.6
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
NBA	207-197 last season	51%	+10
CFB	66-61 last season	52%	+5
TOTAL			+92.6

Check out my 12-month performance here.

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Game: Cincinnati at Buffalo (Friday 8/18 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Cincinnati +3.5

Cincinnati's off a win and winning underdogs in this spread range do very well in the preseason against the spread. The Bengals qualify for a system I track that features underdogs in certain preseason situations that is 41-11 ATS including an 7-1 last year. It's unclear if Carson Palmer will see action here but he won't be in long if he does. But, the Bengals defense showed me something last week holding the Skins to just 3 points. See, this defense heard all last season (and offseason) that while the Bengals have a great offense, it's their defense that is mediocre. They are out to prove something right now I believe. More points will be scored here but no reason the Bengals can't win this outright against the Bills who apparently still don't have a quarterback on the depth chart who can throw more TDs than interceptions.

Philly manhandled Cleveland last week while Detroit got the upset win against Denver. That win was meaningful in that Shannahan likes to win in the preseason (32-20 straight-up record = 62%). New HC Rod Martinelli came in motivated and his team looked sharp. After the game, Martinelli said "I love to win. If we're playing marbles, I'm going to get you." Think he cares that this is preseason? Think he'll be trying to win this game? I sure do. John Kitna and Josh McCown both looked good and as I said last week, are likely to benefit greatly from Mike Martz's presence. Detroit and their new head coach continue to have motivation to start this 2006 campaign off on a winning note. Take them here as a dog.

Chicago last week gave us a glimpse of the value they are putting on winning this preseason. They gave up 28 points to the 49ers. In contrast, San Diego held Green Bay to 3 points. They let QB Phillip Rivers get plenty of playing time which he needs as the new starter. He was 15 for 21 playing the entire first half. He looked great. I look forward to seeing what he can do this week against the Chicago defense. I expect him to again see ample playing time and more than will Rex Grossman. San Diego has a bit of momentum and I like them getting points here.

Pittsburgh showed me last week that they really don't care too much about winning right now. While I noted last week that the Steelers have winning built into their DNA, it appears to me as if their Super Bowl win has given them reason to relax. I can just see them saying "Heck, we don't need to try. We are the world champions and everyone knows it. We'll play when it counts." Brad Childress as a new coach has a sense of urgency to win. He has to be a bit concerned that his team lost to Oakland last week despite how badly the Raiders played. I have to imagine he REALLY wants to win this week. Another loss and he's got an uphill battle with fans and the media in Minnesota. Take the generous 4 points on the Vikings here.

Matt Cassel is no Tom Brady. Brady performed well as expected in the opener but Cassel should again see the bulk of the playing time here. Arizona came out pumped up and took down the Steelers in the brand new stadium in the desert. I think they are carrying quite a bit of momentum into this game. Winning feels good and it's not something the Cardinals players or coaches have felt much of in recent years. I think they will remain motivated to keep that feeling here. They will be excited to face New England. Despite being a preseason game, I think the Cardinals will view it as a "test" of their new revamped team. This Cardinals offense is going to be very good. Fitzgerald and Boldin can get open on any play and Bryant Johnson looked like Jerry Rice last week. Most of the offensive starters minus Edgerrin James saw extended playing time indicating that Arizona is taking things seriously and trying to win. Motivated team with momentum here getting more than a field goal - that's a good bet.

Both of these teams are off weak opening performances. They both managed just 3 points. Joe Gibbs, like his star running back Clinton Portis, is probably already wishing the preseason was over. Portis hurt himself and later derided the NFL for having 4 preseason games. Without Portis, Washington can't move the ball very well (managed 30 yards rushing last game). New York knows they need to play starters and get some good production going. Despite getting just 3 points, the Jets Quarterbacks looked good. Chad Pennington was 9 of 14 and rookie Kellen Clemens was 10 of 14. I expect more production from the Jets who need to take this game seriously. After a 4-win season, with all the concern over their starting QB position, starting off 0-2 with another bad offensive performance would be horrible in New York as the media and fans would start in and not let up. Jets players and coaches know this. Washington's situation isn't as dire as many are predicting them to win the tough NFC East. Another loss for them isn't nearly as bad. New York is more motivated here and that's what the preseason is all about. Throw in the fact that Joe Gibbs is now 4-6 in preseason games since his return and we have a live motivated underdog in the Jets. This total is set low thanks to the six total points scored by these teams last week. Great opportunity for the OVER as both teams should open up and score more. Both offenses have been trying extra hard this week because despite it being a preseason game, no one likes to go out and lay an egg. Take the OVER here too.

Both of these teams lost in week one but Tennessee has more motivation to get a win here. And with a game under his belt, I expect Vince Young to perform much better here. With him playing more relaxed and Chris Brown and Travis Henry carrying the ball, I expect them to move the ball pretty well against Denver. Much like the Jets, the Titans are not well served by dropping their first two games after such a disasterous 2005 campaign (4 wins). Jeff Fisher knows this and I expect him to play to win here. They may not get the win but 5.5 points is a ton in the preseason. Take the points.

Is Oakland really laying points here? Did anyone see these guys play in week 1? The Raiders beat the Vikings but they looked horrible. Aaron Brooks was running for his life behind a terrible starting offensive line. And he was WAY WAY off on his passes. He didn't seem to care as he was yuking it up on the sidelines after going 1-6. Randy Moss is back to his old whining ways throwing his helmet around after being pulled from the game. It's preseason my man! I just don't think that Art Shell has control of this team yet and they have so many talent issues that they don't deserve to be a favorite. San Francisco meanwhile came out motivated and put up 28 points in their opener. Alex Smith looked sharp and their defense did a good job against Chicago's starting unit. Week two visiting teams facing an opponent playing their third game off a win are very good bets in the preseason. The fact that Oakland got the "W" last week makes this even more enticing. San Francisco should win this game.