Free Nfl Weekly Predictions - August 18, 2007

We started off with a bang going 3-0 with our week one NFL preseason picks, winning with Cincinnati, Buffalo and Houston. If you haven yet, read how we pick the NFL preseason.

This week we have FIVE preseason picks and our preview of the NFC North and South...

If you missed it, check out our 2007 NFL Season Team Wins Predictions (low-unit) and the high-unit team wins predictions.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Miami at Kansas City (Thursday 8/16 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Miami +3.5

While he tended to win in New York, Herm Edwards is now just 2-3 in the preseason as head coach of the Chiefs. While it's too early to judge his counterpart, Cam Cameron, last week he held true to the pattern we often see with new NFL head coaches - they want to win, even in the preseason. They want to send a positive message to fans and the media. The Dolphins upset Jacksonville last week and we like their chances here this week too, especially in this prime time Thursday night game. It's his first shot in the limelight and Cameron still has a lot to prove. We think he'll be playing to win here as he did last week. Sure, that win last week was nice. But, a loss here on national TV (ESPN) drops them to a mediocre 1-1 and if it's a bad loss, he risks losing the confidence of NFL fans and the national media, most of whom didn't see their game last week. On the flip side, an upset win bolts them to 2-0 and likely leads to positive media coverage and a good buzz around Miami. This is just what Cameron wants, especially after fans and the press got down on Cameron for his draft decisions (passing on Brady Quinn and taking Ted Ginn Jr. way early). The bottom line is, Cameron has something strong to play for here while experienced head coach Herm Edwards really doesn't. Underdogs with a winning record are good preseason bets vs. losing teams. And, let's not forget about Trent Green. After six years in Kansas City, he parted with his former team under less than amicable terms and landed in Miami. He doesn't feel they were going to give him a fair shot to start this season. Cameron has said Green will start and play the entire first quarter! Do you think Green will be playing at 110%? Think he would like nothing more than to put up 7 or 14 points against his former team? We do! He'll play his best. And, the QB job is not yet his. Cleo Lemon will play the entire second quarter and he'll bring his "A" game as well since the competition is heated for the starting job. So, while preseason games are meaningless in many respects, this preseason is not meaningless to Trent Green and Cleo Lemon. Expect at least one full half of inspired QB play from the Dolphins on Thursday night. We like Miami, a team with a motivated coach and two motivated quarterbacks, to win outright or at least work hard and keep it close.

Houston head coach Gary Kubiak has shown a desire to win these exhibition games, putting forth more effort toward the end result than most. We rode the Texans last week as a +1.5 and eked out the win despite their best effort to give it away and we will come right back with them here. Kubiak was 3-1 last season as a head coach of the Texans and flawless ATS. He has said he will increase the play of the starters in this game by about 67% (25 snaps vs. 15). Ken Wisenhunt has no track record but it appears evident from game one that he is evaluating, rather than programming a team to win. Versus Oakland last week, the Cards had eight drives of 4 plays or less and they gave up 27 points - a ton for the preseason. Nothing we have seen from that game indicates he is trying especially hard to win these games. The Cardinals suffered two major injuries in last week's preseason game (LB Chike Okeafor tore a bicep and RT Oliver Ross tore a tricep) as well as a slew of lesser injuries. Often when that happens, coaches get spooked and back down on aggressively playing starters for fear of further injuries. So don't be surprised if Arizona starters don't see a lot of action in this one. In week two battles of winless teams during the preseason, the underdog has been a great ATS play. We also like to back underdogs vs. teams that have been perennial losers. Here we get a dog coached by someone who seems to value winning and we'll ride them here.

Here we have yet another battle of winless teams squaring off in Cincinnati. The Saints have dropped two in a row and have looked pretty darn bad. We faded them last week, noting Sean Payton's apparent lack of desire to play hard in the preseason. They lost that game vs. Buffalo outright as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of an embarrassing 20-7 loss on national TV in the Hall of Fame game. Well, it's now officially reached a boiling point in New Orleans (as much as it ever does in the preseason). They are a bit nervous and don't want to continue these embarrassing performances. We think they will be extra motivated this week to atone for those two outcomes. If you saw the Saints and Bengals games last week, you know New Orleans will score some points in this game. Drew Brees was doing regular season stuff, with play action fakes and throws all over the field. He connected with seven different receivers in just two drives, good for 120 yards. The Saints were unable to finish the drives, but beware. This was not the signs of a coach handing the ball off and just going through the motions. The Saints put the ball in the air 41 times for nearly 300 yards so the intent is to get the offense into gear. And in an exhibition game, when a coach is using starters and back-ups to extend the defense, eventually there is going to be some big plays. The Bengals last week allowed an aerial display not often seen in the NFL preseason as the Lions put up nearly 500 yards through the air and 3 TDs. The Saints were off a short week last week and Buffalo was very motivated. If the Saints come out as aggressive as they did against Buffalo, it will be hard for the Bengals to do anything about it. With this being game #3 (with two bad losses) for the Saints, there should be even more emphasis than there was in week two to perform and win. The Bengals mindset is different. Yes, they lost last week but it was one game and they know they performed very well, at least on offense. They know they should have won that game (had 16 point fourth quarter lead). So, they aren't feeling nearly the pressure to perform that New Orleans is here. They are content. New Orleans fits in one of our preseason systems favoring under-performing teams that have been offensively inept. This system rocks and we think the Saints will rock here too, grabbing their first win (or at least a point spread cover).

We watched the end of the San Diego opener vs. Seattle and one thing stood out. Norv Turner had everyone off the field with his offense going three-and-out in the fourth quarter twice. Meanwhile Seattle was gaining large chunks of yards, on way to scoring 17 points. Turner gets some reps for his starters and then shortens the game in the 4th quarter to get out without any problems. Tomlinson will not play again as he does not even suit up for these games. It certainly must send the signal to the rest of the squad to just shorten the game and minimize the bumps. This team has nothing to prove and they just want to get to game one of the regular season healthy. A team that wins 14 games doesn't care about their preseason record - at all. Marry that to a coach who doesn't care (17-20 preseason record for Turner) and you have a great team to fade. We don't like the fact that Turner has said he'll play his starters for the entire first half of this game, but at least the NFL's best player (LT) won't be on the field. This will be offset to some extent by the messages (overt and subliminal) being sent to Chargers players this week. Those messages all say "relax." Two-a-days are over and Turner said this week, "We’re going to go next week and have light practices during the morning. They’re half walk-through and half practice. It’s more of teaching-type periods." The Chargers' website reports that Turner is "very pleased" with his team's work through the first three weeks of camp. "We've gotten a lot done," he said this week. So, what are these players hearing? That they have done very well and things are going to lighten up. Nothing about working harder. Nothing about needing to improve. Nothing about winning. Scott Linehan took a different approach last week as the Rams put the ball in the air 43 times, lost the turnover battle 3-0, and still won their game! That tells us that this team is making attempts to move the ball down field and has no intent on shortening the game. It is unusal to see a team overcome a 3-0 turnover deficit, especially on the road, to win the game. That highlights these contrasting approaches to the preseason. Combine that with points given at home, where NFL exhibition teams have really done some winning, and we have a strong play on the home dog.

Mike McCarthy went 1-3 last year in the preseason. For a new coach, that's quite a rare feat! If he doesn't feel pressure to try to win out of the gate in his first year, why would he feel pressure to win in his second? Mike Holmgren, in contrast, has a winning preseason record. The Seahawks are very motivated to win right now. They are coming off a terribly dissapointing season. After getting to the Super Bowl in 2005, they had a dissapointing year in 2006, squeaking into the playoffs and lucking out vs. Dallas to make it out of the first round. One year wonder? No good anymore? These are the questions they heard and asked themselves last year. Well, 2007 is a new season! What better way to put 2006 behind them then to send a message early on that they are back? We believe they will play harder than most the entire preseason. If not to convince others, to convince themselves and gain some confidence back. Last week Seneca Wallace looked awesome so with him getting most of the reps, we have no worries about this Seattle offense. The QB of concern on this field will be Brett Favre who looked horrible last week. Despite his performance, Green Bay won the game so there isn't as much pressure for improvement this week as is probably deserved. Seattle is the better team with better depth. We'll take the points, especially against a team with a head coach that appears to put little emphasis on winning in the preseason.

Results: 3-2

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