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Nfl Handicapping - August 17, 2008We went 4-1 in week one, continuing our preseason successs (now 62% since our start six years ago and 16-7 dating back to last season). We have six week two weekend picks as well as our AFC South and AFC West Previews below... Our NFL season win totals predictions have hit 67% (24-12) the past three seasons. If you haven't received our picks for 2008, reply and let us know. Exclusive Wunderdog 40% Bonus from Diamond Sports  Today's NFL Football Picks: The NFL is often about what happened last week, even in the preseason. Sometimes all it takes for the general public to jump on a team is to watch a team the week before, or read about how great they were. They then line up to jump on that team's bandwagon the following week. So after Tennessee posts a whopping 34-13 victory in week one, immediately the oddsmakers react with anticipation and post the Titans as the biggest chalk of week two. ESPN has been showing highlights of running backs Quinton Ganther and Chris Johnson tearing things up all week. The nice thing for us is that the public immediately latched on and pushed the line up even higher than where it opened. Why not jump on Tennessee here? They carved up St. Louis for 340 yards on the ground and treated the scoreboard like a preseason pinball machine. Here is why this line has value - on Oakland. Tennessee proved in a convincing fashion that they can move the ball on the ground. So how are they entering week two? Are they saying to themselves that since they can run the ball 40 times and win, that they should stick with that forumla? No! This is preseason and that's why it is, in fact, the exact opposite. We believe they are instead going to work on the passing game this week. So what happened last week will not be a factor here in the game, but it is in the line. The fact is Vince Young was 3 for 6 for 17 yards, and overall the Titans QB trio hit just 50% for a paltry six yards per attempt. Jeff Fisher is no fool and he realizes they have to find a passing game or teams will line up eight in the box when the season starts, and the offense will be turning the ball over to the punting game. So we expect Fisher to shift gears here and work on his passing game more. Oakland kept San Francisco out of the end-zone last week, so the points won't be lighting up this week for Tennessee as they did last week. This line shows tremendous value, as the false expectations of game two for Tennessee were created by game one, and we expect a different game and different outcome. Game: Minnesota at Baltimore (Saturday 8/16 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The fact the Vikings lost game one isn't surprising, as they have now dropped all three openers under head coach Brad Childress. But he has shown that from this point on he has his team ready to play. The Vikings are 4-1-1 after game one with him at the helm. Coincidence? Not when you go into your second game last year with your featured running back gaining 70 yards and scoring 37 points (and a similar scenerio two years ago). We expect the Vikings to show up for this one. Baltimore eeked out a 1 point win last week vs New England that featured the Pats playing three QB's that have a combined total of 238 yards in their NFL regular season history. Even with Baltimore featuring Boller and Smith throwing 27 of the 30 passes the team attempted, they managed to win by just 1 point. Childress has a history of mailing in the first one, but then getting more serious as the preseason progresses, and we will back the Vikings to get win number one in the '08 pre-season. Game: Indianapolis at Atlanta (Saturday 8/16 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Indianapolis +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Game: Green Bay at San Francisco (Saturday 8/16 9:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Green Bay +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8) If you watched the Packers last Monday, you had to be impressed with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm, as they all made respectable contributions. Regardless of the QB rotation here this week, they all showed they can move the team down the field. The Niners are a totally different story. The Raiders ran all over them for almost 250 yards and held the San Francisco offense in check the entire game. Was it the Raiders defense or simply another inept Niners offense? It certainly wasn't pretty to watch if your a Niner fan, and coach Nolan has some work to do with this team. With a very poor game one showing versus a much less than average opponent, the Niners are left with more questions than answers. Coach Nolan isn't about winning these games as his 5-8 mark would indicate and with so many holes to fill from week one, we would expect to see the manuvering and evaluation to continue into week two. The Packers made a lot of crucial turnovers last week, but otherwise they looked like they can score and move the ball with anyone taking snaps which should give them the edge here. Since they actually lost game one, we like the Pack to be motivated here as much as the Niners for the win as with the loss of Favre, no one wants to start 0-2. The Favre-Rodgers drama level has dropped significantly over the past week so we expect a more focused, better Green Bay team to dominate. Game: Dallas at Denver (Saturday 8/16 9:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Dallas +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5) The 0-1 Cowboys will travel to the mile high city to take on the 0-1 Broncos, with each team looking for its first win. Denver Coach Mike Shanahan has been known for his emphasis on winning these pre-season games, accumulating a 39-19 preseason record in his head coaching career. For those paying attention, however, that emphasis has waned over the past few years, as he has posted a losing record going back to '06-07. Coaches change and it appears that Shanahan has made a big shift. That philosophy change led to a rare loss in their opener last week. Shanahan used almost his entire roster as it appears he's looking for new help coming off a losing season for only the second time in his tenure at Denver. It appears that this preseason may be used for extensive evaluation, as the Broncos are much less settled than Shanahan is used to. So we expect a lot more experimentation and "fix it" projects than there usual. Wade Phillips has also been a winner here, with an overall 10-7 mark. Tony Romo threw just three passes in the opener, but last year Phillips gave him a lot of snaps in week two. He threw 18 passes in a Cowboy win. The Cowboy QB rotation was diminished to just two. We expect more of the same here, with the Cowboys putting more effort into this one, while Coach Shanahan is in the unusual situation of looking for answers instead of letting a good team get tuned up. The Cowboys win their first on the road. Game: New England at Tampa Bay (Sunday 8/17 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on New England +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden ran his pre-season opening day record to 8-0 last week as he seems to want his team to get that first win under their belt. As good as he is in week one, there appears to be a sigh of relief after that win for his teams. His teams seem to relax the effort in week two where the Bucs are just 1-6 under Gruden. Bill Bellichick mailed in the opener as we predicted as the Pats went with a QB rotation comprised of three QB's that have a combined total of 238 NFL regular season yards. They are so solid as a team that they still almost beat Baltimore, dropping the game by a single point. Belichick isn't the type of coach that sits back during these games as a rule. He is 20-14 during the NFL preseason and has no single week under .500. Last year Brady put the ball in the air 19 times in week two, so look for a different New England effort in this one. We will ride the Patriots to notch their first win of the preseason in Tampa. Results: 3-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-10-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-05-2008 |
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