Last year my preseason NFL picks went 20-8 straight-up and 31-10 on a star basis (75%).  Over the past four seasons my preseason picks are 44-24 (66%).

This year we started off on the right foot with our 2-star winner on Oakland on Sunday. I love the preseason as it presents great betting opportunities and a chance to build the bankroll for the regular season. Below is my preseason betting philosphy explained.

I have five picks for the opening weekend of the preason.

Check out my 12-month performance here.

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Preseason NFL Picks: How to bet the preseason

Can money be made on NFL preseason picks? Absolutely.

Can handicappers approach the preseason the same way they do in the regular season? Of course not.

For example, power ratings don't mean a thing. Past season performance doesn't correlate much to preseason performance. And, there are few if any past games to look at that provide any true predictive value. That being said, there are some indicators of ATS (against the spread) results in the preseason. In fact, the same issues that make these games more difficult to handicap make them more difficult for lines-makers to peg. Remember, it doesnt take much of an edge - if we can beat 52.4% with our picks, we bank!

In 2002, I went 4-1-1 ATS in the preseason. In 2003, I went 9-6 ATS, in 2004 went11-9-1 ATS and in 2005, an incredible 20-8in the "games that don't matter." Overall, that's 66% and a healthy profit. I make my preseason picks by analyzing the following:

Coaches/Philosophy
Do they take the preseason seriously or use it for its intended purpose (to test out players and new schemes)? For example, look at Bill Parcells who is back in the mix with the Cowboys. His focus on making every play count, whether in a real game or practice, and his disciplined approach has resulted in his team covering the spread in roughly two thirds of the preseason games he has coached. The retired Marv Levy of Buffalo was just the opposite and was a great "go-against" preseason coach.

Be careful, however, about blindly betting "good" coach vs. "poor" coach. Over the past five years, "good" coaches (50%+ preseason ATS record) were 51% ATS while "poor" coaches (<50% preseason ATS) were 44% ATS. There is a difference, but it isn't huge. Further analysis is required to uncover more predictive trends. For example, put that "poor" coach in a favorite position and he'll cover only about a third of the time. Find another trend or two to combine with that and we have a very good bet.

Finally, "new" NFL coaches have more to prove and more to play for than experienced vets who are secure in their jobs. In the 2003 preseason, the 5 head coaches who were new to their team (Bill Parcells, Marvin Lewis, Steve Mariucci, Jack Del Rio, Dennis Erickson) went 12-8 (60%) against-the-spread. In 2002, the four new coaches went 11-5 (69%) ATS.

Team Depth
Backups play more than starters and some teams' backups are better than other teams' starters. Look for situations in which starters will be playing against backups. Teams with veteran starters who are not fighting for their job will tend to play these starters very little in the preseason. Look for teams with a couple of good players fighting for the same job. These players will get extra playing time as coaches try to determine the starter. Also look for teams with great backups, especially at quarterback. Some teams second or third-string quarterbacks could start for other teams. When they get to play against their opponents second or third-stringers, theyll rack up the yards and the points.

Game Plan
Coaches often announce their intentions for upcoming games. Sometimes they are looking to give a specific player a lot of playing time and other times they are just looking to get out of there as quickly as possible without any injuries. Sometimes after several weak preseason performances, coaches challenge their teams to show something before the regular season starts and meaningless game becomes meaningful.

Preseason Historical Systems and Trends
It is true that some simple older popular trends (bet on a team in its second preseason game if its opponent is playing its first) are no longer predictive (this one is <50% over the past five years). However, there remain very good predictive trends/systems for the preseason. For example, dogs of over 7 points do very well, especially when facing a team off a win.

Keep these items in mind when handicapping the NFL preseason. I utilize a system that takes these variables into account on my preseason picks.

Game: Cleveland at Philadelphia (Thursday 8/10 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1 star on Cleveland +3

Well, Andy Reid "came through" for us on Sunday losing yet another preseason game. He's now 8-16 in exhibition games. I don't go against him and the Eagles every preseason game, of course, but I like Cleveland here for some additional reasons. First off, in contrast to Reid's approach to the preseason, Romeo Crenel appears to take it more seriously. Granted, we have but one year of data on Crenel but in 2005, he and the Browns went 3-1. Crennel is still a relatively new coach and he wants to break the Browns out of their losing tradition. This is their opener and they'd like to start off on the right foot. Philly meanwhile has been hearing since Sunday how great they looked with their starters on the field. ESPN analysts can't say enough about how great McNabb and Westbrook looked as they marched down the field for an easy touchdown. They are relatively complacent and have no reason to put forth a special effort in this game. And, after the starters left the game on Sunday, the Eagles looked bad as they scored just 3 more points while allowing 16. Their backups just couldn't do much. Cleveland starting QB Charlie Frye should see a bit more action than McNabb here as he needs the reps after taking over as the starter. And backing him up is Ken Dorsey who should do a decent job moving the ball. Brownies here plus the points.

New coach trying to make a statement and to boot we get him as a home dog - great preseason situation. Unfortunately he's facing a coach in Shanahan that likes to win in the preseason. But I still like Martinelli and crew in this one. Detroit is another team in need of wins this time of year. They are off yet another horrible season - notching just five wins last year. This team has had one playoff win playoff win since 1957. That's how bad it's been in the Motor City. Not unexpectedly, they cleaned house bringing in a new head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators and new QB to replace the ineffective Joey Harrington. Too bad they didn't sack Matt Millen. Anyway, all of these "new" folks need reps which is why I expect the starters to play a bit longer than do Denver's who are for the most part entrenched. Sure, we'll have a new starting running back in Denver and Javon Walker makes his debut but the all-important quarterback position is locked up by Jake Plummer. He doesn't need reps. John Kitna does as this is now his offense. It will be exciting to see what he and offensive guru Mike Martz can do this year. When he sits down, Josh McCown will try to get the Detroit offense rolling and he's not horrible. Can't say the same about Denver's slew of backups. Rookie Jake Cutler may someday be a good NFL QB but he has looked poor in training camp. I don't expect much prodcution from Denver's backups once Plummer sits down. Motivated home dog here.

This game is similar in a few ways to the Denver/Detroit game. We get a home underdog that has been horrible during the regular season for a while. They are not served well by losing a bunch of preseason games as that will only get them down and start the press and fans talking. Wins, even in the preseason, are cause for some celebration and they need cause in the Bay. They also start a QB who needs some reps. Alex Smith looked like a typical rookie QB during his seven starts last season. Like Kitna in Cleveland, Smith also has a new offensive coordinator who was fired as a head coach and who is known as an offensive mastermind. Norv Turner should be able to help Smith and they've already spent an entire offseason working together. When Smith goes out, San Francisco will turn to veteren Trent Dilfer. This is actually a step up right now and he should perform more like a starter than backup. Chicago also has an impressive backup in Brian Griese which tempers this pick a bit but nonetheless, I like the home dog here.

The defending World Champions are getting 3.5 points vs. a team that won 5 games last year. Must be the preseason! Teams that were poor the prior year during the regular season and are installed as home favorites in the preseason don't fare too well vs. the spread. Here we get over a field goal on a team that has winning as part of their DNA. They were 15-1 in 2004, almost unbeatable with Roethlisberger last year on way to a Super Bowl win and they went 3-1 in last year's preseason. I don't think they are complacent either. Head coach Bill Cowher said "When you have opportunities that we have in front of us to do that, you have to ride it. We have a lot of people back. It's not going to be easy, it's a big challenge, but boy, to me it's very invigorating. I think we're all kind of champing at the bit to get back." Backing up Big Ben will be Charlie Batch who should be able to have some success agianst Arizona' backup defense. 'Zona veteran starter Kurt Warner won't see a lot of action this preseason as the Cards want to look at John Navarre and Matt Leinart. I don't expect much from the 2004 seventh round pick (Navarre) or the rookie (Leinart) in his first real action. Leinart is not yet signed and I think Navarre will really struggle against Pittsburgh's defense whose backups are better than many teams' starters. Yes, it's the preseason but talent still comes into play and Pittsburgh only knows how to play one way - that's to win. Take the much better team as a dog of more than a field goal.

New Orleans didn't win many games or cover the spread much last year. One game in which I like them a lot was their opener after Katrina in which I felt the emotional edge they'd have would carry them to a win. It did. I like them in their 2006 preseason opener too. After Katrina and a bad season, they are motivated to start strong here. Another new coach and new starting QB combination spells motivation and possibly increased starter playing time. This team is no stranger to playing on the road as their entire 2005 campaign was away from home. New HC Sean Payton will want to send the city of New Orleans a message - a new sheriff is in town and he knows how to win. He'll be trying hard here as he knows he has one chance to get people on his side and that chance is now. He can be hero or part of another "here we go again" season in the Big Easy. He's got some hope with Pro Bowler QB Drew Brees coming over from San Diego and Reggie Bush signing to complement Deuce McAllister. How bad was Tennessee last year? They won four games. Take out victories agaisnt Houston and San Francisco and they notched just one meaningful win. They lost Steve McNair too so it could be a rough 2006 for the Titans. Billy Volek will start here and we should see a healthy dose of Matt Muck and/or Vince Young. And while Young has great potential, at this time neither of these two backups instill fear in opposing NFL defenses. Drew Brees could get some extra reps as he needs them in his new offense. I don't think Todd Bouman can do much damage but Jamie Martin can (he was 4-1 last year as a starter with the Rams). I like the underdog in this one.