Football Winning Picks - August 17, 2009
Week one of the preseason is here and my picks are below.
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I have seven week one preseason picks including a couple of 4-unit plays and a 5-unit play. To read about my philosophy for the preseason, see below.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New England at Philadelphia (Thursday 8/13 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New England +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
This exhibition game offers substantial history to follow as it relates to coaching philosophies. This year marks the 10th for Andy Reid as head coach of the Eagles and the ninth for Belichick leading the Pats. Coach Reid has never been about winning in the exhibition season, but rather about testing and evaluating new personnel. That is evidenced by the fact that Philadelphia has not had a winning record during the preseason for each of the last six seasons. His teams are 15-25 during the NFL-X under his tenure. His record gets even worse in week one, where Reid's Eagles are just 3-8. It is tough to lay points with a team that has a long history of winning very little under their current coach - especially in week one. Coach Belichick actually has a winning record since taking over at New England with a 20-17 mark. In week one preseason action, his Patriots teams are 6-4. In addition, normally Tom Brady could care less about playing in the preseason. But, this is not a normal year for him. Coming off a year of inaction, he's chomping at the bit and will play in this game. He wants to show everyone, including himself, that he's back. Coming off an 0-4 preseason last year, I look for the Pats to try to have added incentive win this year. I have an NFL-X system that backs teams that had a bad preseason last year that applies in this game. The system is 15-4 ATS including 5-1 the past three seasons. I'll take New England with the points in this one.
Game: Dallas at Oakland (Thursday 8/13 10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Dallas +2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Back in their glory days, the Cowboys were long known for being no-shows in the preseason. But things have changed under Wade Phillips. The Cowboys have been good under Phillips having won 60% of their NFL-X games (12-8) since taking over down in Dallas. He has also now won four of six in the first game of the NFL-X. The Raiders new coach, Tom Cable, becomes the fourth new Raiders coach in the last five years, and the franchise remains unstable. Two able-bodied backups will get most of the snaps here, but I like John Kitna's supporting cast a lot more than Jeff Garcia's. There has been a long history in the NFL-X that has pointed to a 60%+ system that is active for this game on the Cowboys, so I'm going with Dallas in their opener.
Game: Minnesota at Indianapolis (Friday 8/14 7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Indianapolis +1 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
With the departure of Tony Dungy, longtime assistant Jim Caldwell takes over the Colts. Dungy never liked the preseason games and as a result, his Colts teams went just 10-20 under his tenure. This line indicates that the books expect more of the same, but don't bet on it. Caldwell is likely to want to get out of the gate and create a winning feeling as new director of this club. Brad Childress is a lot like Tony Dungy, and in his three years at Minnesota he has never won a preseason opener. We have a known quantity in Minnesota that has shown the lack of desire to be concerned with the outcome of game one. Meanwhile we have an unknown in Caldwell that the oddsmakers are unjustly treating like his predecessor. The result is a rare preseason home dog. I’m going to go with the Colts as the dog here.
Game: Chicago at Buffalo (Saturday 8/15 7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Chicago +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Bills Dick Juaron has never placed any emphasis on these exhibition games whatsoever and his won/lost record certainly offers proof to that. Juaron is 12-20 in his preseason coaching career. It certainly makes it difficult to back the Bills in this spot as a favorite since they are only cashing 37.5% of the time straight up. Lovie Smith of the Bears has a winning record in his tenure in these games, so getting points here certainly looks to be the way to go. Preseason favorites coming off back-to-back average years (number of wins), like the Bills, have covered the spread at a rate of just 38%. In recent years it's gotten even worse as these teams are just 10-20 ATS over the past three seasons including 1-5 last year. I will grab the points and go with the Bears here.
Game: Cleveland at Green Bay (Saturday 8/15 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Both of these teams had great expectations for 2008, and both underachieved. So each will be hungry to make a turnaround this year. The Browns will have a new coach as departed Belichick disciple Romeo Crennel is replaced by another in Eric Mangini. If Mangini showed anything with the Jets, it was his desire to create a winning culture right away. The MO for these games was not to throw in the towel, but try to win. The result was an 8-4 preseason mark for the Jets. For the Packers' Mike McCarthy, these games have never been about winning, and with the Pack returning with a lot of question marks, you can be sure there will be a lot of experimenting here to search out answers. The Packers are just 4-8 under McCarthy in preseason games. Teams with coaches who don't care in the preseason are horrible bets as favorites. Throw in the fact that Cleveland was winless last preseason (provding extra motivation to win here) and I like the Brownies in the opener.
Game: Houston at Kansas City (Saturday 8/15 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Houston +2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Texans have been trying to get over the hump for years, but have turned in back-to-back 8-8 seasons. Gary Kubiak has won big in the early going of the NFL-X as he has a 5-1 record under his tenure in Houston. I see no reason for that to change. Todd Haley will make his Chiefs coaching debut in this one. The Chiefs were bad last season and have a lot of holes to fill and a lot of evaluating to do here. So rather than try to win, my guess is he uses this to evaluate. They simply have too many question marks to be concerned about winning. NFL preseason favorites that are coming off two really bad years are lose ATS at a 60% clip historically. Granted, these teams went 2-1 last season but prior to that, they went 1-3 in 2007, 3-5 in 2006 and 1-8 in 2005. I like the Texans in this one.
Game: Jacksonville at Miami (Monday 8/17 7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Jacksonville +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
One of the most successful coaches in terms of playing to win in the NFL-X has been Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio. Del Rio has posted a 17-7 mark over the last six preseasons, and has not had a losing year with five of the six seasons finishing at 3-1! This year he has no reason to change that. In fact, his job is on the line this year so if anything, there's more reason for him to put a gloss on things. Tony Sparano lost his opener a year ago then won the next three. But he may have a different agenda this season as he needed to instill a winning culture at Miami in his initial season at the helm. The Dolphins are off an 11-5 season, and this one will be used to do more evaluating than winning. Getting a field goal on a superb preseason coach like Del Rio is a gift. I'll go with Jacksonville here.
Results: 2-4
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-September-02-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-August-26-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009
Yes, this is a meaningless game in some sense as it's just a preseason game. But in another key way, it's not meaningless at all. First-year coach Rex Ryan and the Jets lost their opener....
NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-August-20-2009
It is rare to see an NFL preseason pointspread in this range except for week three, when you see starters getting a lot of time on the field. It certainly makes you look hard at the abundance of point...
