Predictions Nfl Free Picks - August 11, 2007
Football is back!
Throughout the preseason, we'll look at two divisions in detail each week. This week we preview the NFC East and NFC West. And of course, we have our picks for week one of the preseason including Thursday, Friday and Saturday games. We've hit 60% in the preseason the past five years and look to get off on the right foot this year...
If you haven't seen them, check out our 2007 Team Wins Picks Part I and Team Wins Picks Part II and our guide to betting the NFL preseason.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Cincinnati at Detroit (Thursday 8/09 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cincinnati +1.5
The Bengals are off a very dissapointing 2006 campaign. After winning 11 games and getting to the playoffs in 2005, they were snake-bit with Carson Palmer going down in the opening round vs. the Steelers. They had a shot at going deep into the playoffs and it all came to a crashing and sudden halt. Last season they took a big step backwards winning just 8 games and missing the playoffs. Carson Palmer wasn't nearly as good as he was in 2005. It shook their confidence a bit. 2005 was their first playoff appearance in 15 years and here they are potentially slipping back into mediocrity? As a result of this "fear," we think this team wants to get off on the right foot this year. Marvin Lewis has shown a desire to win in the preseason as this team went 4-0 last season and the Bengals are 67% overall in the preseason since his arrival. During camp he said, "With a fast start, there is not as much pressure." Last year in the preseason Cincinnati scored an unheard of 32.7 points per game. Meanwhile, Rod Marinelli went 1-3 last season (his first) with the Lions scoring 13 points per game. Read Marinelli's quotes and you get a clue as to what he uses the preseason for (working on issues, not winning): "The thing I want to accomplish as we get into camp is that it’s not just the 'what'. I’m also very interested in 'how'; the 'how' you do things. Your stance, your steps, your keys, your eyes, your vision; how to run a route, how to take a ball, all those things. The 'what' is key, but the 'how' is more important to me." Folks, he is saying that right now, the results (winning or losing) are less important than working on the fundamentals. Think about the mindsets of these two teams and ask yourself who is more motivated to start out 2007 on a winning note: Detroit who notched a big gratifying win over Dallas in their final game last season, with a coach who has shown he isn't about winning in the preason. Or the Bengals who lost to Pittsburgh in their finale to keep them out of the playoffs after starting the season with high hopes - a team with a coach who has won five straight preseason games. We like the underdog here.
Game: Buffalo at New Orleans (Friday 8/10 7:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Buffalo +6
After their no-show loss in the Hall of Fame game, New Oreans turns right around and plays five days later vs. Buffalo. That loss was Sean Payton's fourth in five preseason tries since taking over for the Saints. He doesn't seem to value winning and this team really has nothing to prove. They were the most improved team last season. They over-achieved and everyone has been singing their praises for the past 10 months. Now they find themselves laying 6 points - a heck of a lot of points for the NFL preseason. Sure they are at home but again Payton doesn't seem to care about winning in the preseason. They were outscored last preseason 12.2 to 20.7 overall and 10.5 to 28.5 at home. The Bills are looking for a running-back-by committee approach so expect a strong effort by all involved as they work for playing time. New Orleans' strength is their offense with super stars Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and the Deuce but these guys aren't getting much action in the preseason. A bad defense is getting action and it appears, at least based on Sunday's game vs. Pittsburgh, that it hasn't improved much. When you are star-heavy like the Saints, you are often talent-poor behind them. Yes, this team and coach are disgusted at how they played vs. Pittsburgh, and rightly-so. But, they played Sunday, took Monday off and got back to it on Tuesday giving them just two days to try to correct whatever they want to work on. We'll back the underdog getting a lot of points vs. a team that has been terrible in the preseason under their current head coach.
Game: Chicago at Houston (Saturday 8/11 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +1.5
You've always gotta look closely at home dogs in the NFL preseason, especially one that has a 3-1 record in the preseason under their current head coach. As we discussed in our prediction that the Bears would lose 6+ games this year, history has been un-kind to the Superbowl runner-up over the years. They often come back with less than what they had the year before in terms of effort and performance. This is widely known but what may not be as well known is that this scenerio has manifested itself in the exhibition season as well as the regular season. Game one of the exhibition season for those that have lost the Superbowl shows just one ATS win in the last nine years. The mark is 1-6 ATS the last seven years. As you can see, Superbowl winners and losers are often over-valued as we wind through the slate of exhibition games. The mark over the last 10 years shows a 39-47-7 overall performance against the line, with the Superbowl winner and loser both in the red. There is also a history of week one home dogs out-performing the line in a big way, so we have a lot of signals leading the way for the Texans to come away with the money in front of the home crowd. The last two times they have been in this role as a dog at home, they have cashed as well.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-August-04-2007
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