College Football Pick - September 30, 2008

Last week we hit 57% and on the season we are hitting 58% for +22.1 units. We've been especially effective on our mid-week picks having gone 9-2 thus far on our Tuesday-Friday picks. Tonight we have another.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee State (Tuesday 9/30 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Florida Atlantic +3 (-120) (risk 2 to win 1.7)

Florida Atlantic is off two straight losses by a combined score of 54-3. Their other loss of the season was by a score of 52-10. Middle Tennessee has gotten a lot of credit for beating Maryland. That win looks even bigger in the eyes of the betting public right now, as Maryland went on to beat California and Clemson. Maryland's Jordan Steffy threw three INTs in that game and MTSU scored from 53, 63 and 80 yards out. They had four extra possessions leading to 40 minutes of possession time. But they gained just 206 yards otherwise. Don't forget, they haven't seen the win column in any other game including a versus a team very much on the same level in Troy State. Versus Troy they lost at home 31-17 after trailing 24-3 in the 4th quarter! More than half of their yards were after that point in the game when it was already decided. Back to Florida Atlantic's bad losses. They hav taken their annual punishment from big teams such as Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota. So, once we consider the competition, it's understandable. Last year four of their five losses were to Oklahoma State, Florida, Kentucky and South Florida. But, they went to a Bowl and beat Memphis with just five seniors on the squad. This year they are loaded with 18 seniors, 18 returning starters, and an NFL-quality QB. He's throwing to the best reciever corp in the schools history. MTSU is the team with just five seniors this year. Last year FAU held MTSU to 18 rushing yards and just 217 overall, and this year could be a repeat. I'm playing FAU as a very live dog here.

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Read our How we pick college football winners here.
• Hop over to our 2008 NCAA football predictions here.
• Read our college football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Check out NCAA football prior picks here.
• Check out college football sportsbooks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 NCAA football prior picks.
• Check out NCAA football ATS records here.
• Read our college football odds here.
• Take a look at our monday night football picks here.
• Updated today: college football blog.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-25-2008
We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one thing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
This game could get ugly, as Penn State has been hanging some huge numbers against some meager competiton. The question is, how much will Penn State score? Let's not forget that Temple held Connec...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
The Wildcats have lit-up the scoreboard in their first two games, putting up 45 against North Texas and 69 against Montana State. But don't be fooled. Last year this team tallyed 34 gaianst San Jo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-12-2008
We faded Maryland last week and good thing as the Terps lost by 10 points as a 12.5 point favorite. They have not been able to get anything going on offense, and they will be hoping for different...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-10-2008
Rutgers has found that life after Ray Rice is going to be difficult. Last week they were held to less than 10 points in a game for just the second time in 29 games. Mike Teel moved the team between th...