darrell,

Last week looked great with Michigan State cruising to an easy upset over Notre Dame. Then the Irish came back to win by 3 and that gave us a push on that game. We ended up 2-2-1 for the week. We are 13-7 (65%) on the season through four weeks and this week I like 5 picks - all tasty underdogs - including our first 5-star play of the season!

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
NFL	11-3 last 14 picks	79%	+8
CFB	13-7 last 20 picks	65%	+6
MLB	38-21 last 59 picks	64%	+2.9
NHL	208-140 last season	60%	+24.6
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
NBA	207-197 last season	51%	+10
TOTAL			+97.5

Wunderdog Picks Results Check out my 12-month performance here.

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Good luck to you...

Game: Rutgers at South Florida (Friday 9/29 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on South Florida +4

Friday night football descends on South Florida. Big night game for USF who will have 100% of the CFB audience on this day. Needless to say, the place will be rocking. They are off a great year - their first in the Big East. They ranked 14th in points allowed and 18th in rushing defense in 2005 - two of the most important statistical categories in football. They return 13 starters from that team and have started out 3-1. Their lone loss was to Kansas last week - a game they had in hand before they squandered a 7 point lead in the fourth quarter. They nearly won the game losing on a late interception in the end zone. If they had won that game and upset the Jayhawks, this line would be quite different. The other reason the Bulls are a home underdog here is the play of Rutgers so far. The Scarlet Knigths are 4-0 and ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 1976. The public just can't resist jumping on the rnaked team vs. the unranked. But, let's not forget that last year South Florida won this game on the road 45-31. Rutgers has put up some impressive numbers but against some very weak teams in North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio and Division I-AA Howard. Road favories of 3.5 to 10 points off a big win by 17+ points are just 19-52 (27%) in September games over the past decade. And, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a loss vs. an opponent off 4+ wins are 41-9 (82%) over the past five seasons. Both of these tell us the same thing - the public overreacts. They are enamored with Rutgers and don't like S. Florida coming off a loss. That's why we take the home dog here.

The Golden Flashes back-to-back wins at Miami Ohio and Bowling Green were not a fluke. The last win was huge as they won 38-3 as a seven point underdog! Kent State is now aiming to make it three in a row with a win versus the Akron Zips. The Golden Flashes are led by Sophomore quarterback Julian Edelman who is enjoying a breakthrough season of sorts, collecting 627 yards and 3 TDs thus far. Two weeks ago Edelman received an added confidence boost when he was named MAC Offensive Player of the Week. Since their opening loss to Minnesota the Flashes have picked up their game, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They've allowed just 19.5 points per game and that is saying a lot seeing how that includes the 44 points given up in the first game. The last three weeks they've given up just 6 pts per game and that 44 point performance was against the mighty Minnesota Gophers. The Golden Flashes are gaining confidence week by week and after playing three straight road games they are ready to come home and show their fans that they are the real deal. The Kent defense and their momentum coming home after two huge road wins against MAC opponents will serve them well here. I look for the crowd to be very involved in this game and for the Golden Flashes to exact revenge for the 24-19 loss last season. I like the home dog here versus a very average Akron team.

The Bowling Green Falcons got drilled last week by a much improved Kent State team 38-3 but this will not scare me away from backing this much improved Falcon team. The blowout loss last week has inflated this line. BG is young and will improve as the season goes on and they showed that from game 1-3. The bottom line is this team can score and has beat up the Ohio Bobcats the last two years by a combined total of 79-30. The Ohio offense is nowhere to be found this season, averaging just 19.3 points per game and a lackluster 240 yards a game and 60 yards on the ground. That isn't going to get it done on Saturday. The Falcons on the other hand have many big play position players on offense that could give the Bobcats trouble. This game will be decided by speed and the Falcons have a ton of it on both sides of the ball and that gives them a huge advantage over a weak Ohio secondary that gave up numerous big plays last week to Missouri. Look for the Falcons to get up early in this game and pass their way to a nice comfortable lead. Ohio is just 3-11 ATS the past three seasons after a loss. Too much offense here for the Bobcats. Take Bowling Green plus the generous points.

It took the Cougars eight games last season to get their first Pac-10 win. This year they notched it in their first conference game of the season. They had their 36-10 win over Stanford in hand almost from the start. The Cougars dominated the Cardinal in every way imaginable. Washington State gained 468 yards to Stanford's 195, and they got eight sacks of Stanford's quarterback Trent Edwards. In contrast, the last two games the USC offense has really struggled very uncharacteristically. Versus Nebraska and Arizona, they averaged just 24 points per game which is very low for the Trojans. In the last two seasons USC has dominated this matchup scoring 55 last year and 42 the year prior. But this is different USC team that doesn't have near the firepower it has had in years past (Leinart & Bush). This Washington State team is talented and should be able to compete physically and athletically with the Trojans. The Cougars have scored 109 points the last three weeks and should have enough to keep this game close at home where they have always played well. Look for Martin Stadium to be rocking as mighty USC comes to town. The Cougars will keep this one closer than most people think. I like the BIG home dog to cover the points here.

This game gets the award this week for being the furtherst off. The Wildcats (3-1) are a much better team than most realize. They are very experienced (17 returning starters including QB) and well-coached. There is no doubt in my mind that they should be favored here. While the 'Cats did get beat last week, it was at the hands of a very good Louisville team. And in that game, they stuck around with the Cardinals for three quarters until Lousiville took control of the game late. That is saying something seeing how Louisville beat Miami by 24 points the week before. The Wildcats should be licking there chops this week after playing Louisville's high octane offense. They will get a break this week versus a much weaker opponent. The Baylor Bears are not in the same class as the Cardinals and bring a much more vanilla offense to the table. This should play right into the Wildcats' hands as the Bears have only averaged 29.3 yards per game on the ground and 278 through the air. This will make the Bears very one dimensional and allow K-State's hungry defense to feast on the quarterback. This is a defense that is allowing a stingy 13.5 points per game and 272 yards of total offense. The Wildcats have struggled this year on offense but I see them getting on track this week against a far less superior team. The Baylor defense is just what the doctor ordered giving up over 318 yards per game so far. This game will defensive battle and I'll will go with with the better offense in this one as we see the Wildcats making plays late in the game. Experienced road underdogs (17+ returning starters) off a home loss by 14+ points are 39-14 (74%) ATS over the past ten years as the mature players rebound well. As a favorite, Baylor has failed to cover the spread in 2 out of very 3 games over the past decade. They are a 1-3 team with no running game to speak of. K-State has won the last four in this matchup. Why are they favored here? I don't know but I'm all over Kansas State.