Football Winning Picks - September 29, 2007

We're coming off a 4-1 Saturday which included a 5-unit winner on UCONN. This week we have another 5-unit pick and five total Saturday plays. We also have our take on Mike Gundy's tirade.

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Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Air Force at Navy (Saturday 9/29 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Navy -2.5

Air Force heads to Annapolis to play for the Commander-in-Chief trophy in what is the third road game in four weeks for the Falcons. Under new head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has pulled off a couple of shocking upset wins over Utah and TCU but then got hammered 31-6 last week by BYU. Navy's been a relative dissapointment posting an 0-4 ATS mark to start the year. This, and a terrible defense that has allowed 34 points per game, is keeping this line lower than it should be. Navy, normally a defensive stalwart, has struggled against the pass this year. They gave up 428 yards to Duke last week and are allowing 66% completion ratio. But Air Force doesn't throw. They run the ball three out of every four plays. Navy should be able to step up up against the one-dimensional Falcons attack. And, Navy has offense. They are averaging 33 points per game and 360 rushing yards per game (5.9 yards per rush). The Midshipmen take games vs. other service acadamies seriously. Under head coach Paul Johnson, they are 8-2 ATS in these matchups and they have covered the spread in this matchup 11 of the last 15 times. They have a bye coming up and are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 prior to an off week. In what is anticipated to be a close game, we like Navy at home, with their pedigree in these kinds of a games and a distinct head coaching advantage.

Maybe we are missing something here, but we think it is the odds-makers missing the boat on this game. Michigan State comes in 4-0, and that may be the reason for this line being held down. We thkink Wisconsin is superb this year and rolls big here. Michigan State returned just six players on both offense and defense, and graduated their QB. They have a new coach, in Mark Dantonio, and new schemes to learn. The Spartans have played a very soft schedule and the defensive numbers have been put up vs. the likes of Pitt (ranked 99th in offense), ND (dead last), UAB (104th), and Bowling Green (39th). Note that Bowling Green has played Temple and Minnesota, two of the worst defenses in the country to achieve their #39 ranking. The Spartans are about to face what could be Wisconsin's most talented team in recent memory, including last year's team. This a balnaced 400 yard per game team, getting equal shares on the ground and through the air. The defense will key on Jevon Ringer and force Brian Hoyer to the air. Michigan State does not have a single player on offense that is all Big Ten first or second team preseason. This will be the beginning of the Spartan slide as after this one they must play at Ohio State and Iowa and host Michigan and Penn State. This is the opportune time to get a soft line against this Michigan State team, because they soon will be exposed.

The good news for Louisville is they have a pro QB in Brian Brohm and an offense that puts up huge points and over 600 yards a game. The bad news is they are allowing 40 per game over their last three, and lost as a 37 point favorite at home to a Syracuse team that can't get out of their own way. So now they come out angry, and with a purpose right? WRONG! It was said quite some time ago, beware of history as it might repeat itself. The fact is, when a team that is percieved to be so good and so potent, loses outright as a huge favorite, the problem usually goes beyond the talent on the field. Something else is wrong. Like an electrical problem with a car, the diagnosis is difficult and hard to find, but it's obvious something is severely wrong! We aren't going to make a case for a dominant NC State team. But you didn't need to make that case about Syracuse, Kentucky, or Middle Tennessee State either and all gave Louisville a fight. History shows that when teams lose as a 20+ point favorite, they don't bow their backs and come roaring back. In fact, they get hammered ATS, and often straight up the following week. Since 1997, 16 teams have lost as a 20+ point chalk and have come back when favored in their next game to go 2-14 ATS! The bottomline is something is wrong here, and these teams don't fix it! Six of those 14 ATS winners won outright. We've already seen one (Michigan losing to App. State and getting buried as an 8 point favorite by 32 to Oregon). We will ride the trend and play on NC State.

This is a far different Kansas State team than we saw last season. A team that allowed 160+ on the ground last season is suddenly good on defense, ranked 13th overall and 9th against the run. K-State has made a difference with the infusion of JUCO talent on the defensive line and are also in the top 10 in the nation in tackles for loss! Tim Tibesar has come over from N. Dakota where he was the defensive coordinator for a team that led D-2 in scoring defense. He has implemented a 3-4 defense. That may cause some problems for Colt McCoy, who has already thrown five interceptions on the season. The Wildcats have had two weeks to prepare for this game and should have a good game plan to deal with Texas offense, which has yet to face any pressure or a 3-4. It also must be noted that Texas is in a look-ahead situation here as next weekend they face their annual brawl with Oklahoma. Kansas State has been to Texas twice preceeding Texas Weekend. In one they led 17-15 late in the 4th and got the cover, and in the other they came in as a TD dog and hammered Texas 35-17! Mack Brown is just 13-24 ATS at Texas following a big home win by 17+ points. That includes 9-19 ATS if the win was by 28+ points. Upset? It is certainly a possibility, so we ride the big points in this one.

Something has changed at Alabama as they finally have a potent offense. John Parker Wilson has thrown well (just two picks) and the Bama backfield tandom of Grant and Coffee have pounded out over 700 yards already. The defenses in this game are pretty even, separated by about 20 yards per game, but their is no doubt which team has the offensive firepower to sustain drives. Florida State will bring a bad offense that is ranked just #90 in the country. That isn't good enough vs. a potent Bama attack, and equal defense. The Seminoles don't even have a reciever that has caught more than 8 passes, and the ground game features Antone Smith, with just 218 yards and not much else. The Noles old achillies heel may crop up to be a factor if this is close, as PK Gary Cismesia has not connected from beyond 40 yards yet this season. While technically a home game for the Seminoles, each team received an equal number of tickets. The Tide are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 as a road underdog. We like the Tide to come out with the mild upset in this one.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2007 college football picks.
• Here we show our football against-the-spread records.
• Don't forget to read our Football Game Analysis here.
• Here we show our college football blog.
• Don't forget to visit our college football sportsbook reviews.
• Updated today: NCAA football lines and odds.
• Don't forget to read our College football betting philosophy here.
• View college football prior predictions here.
• Take a look at our 2007 college football predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our ncaa football expert pick here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-21-2007
Oklahoma has roared out of the games to a perfect 3-0 mark both SU and ATS. They have outscored opponents 184-26. They have dominated completely. A perfect time to fade them. Oddsmakers opened this on...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-19-2007
In the first road test for the Aggies, we like their chances against a Miami team that struggled mightily in their first game vs. a Big 12 opponent. The Hurricanes lost 13-51 to Oklahoma in week two. ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-13-2007
Troy comes home licking their wounds after back-to-back losses on the road at Arkansas and Florida. Talk about a tough schedule! They gave up 105 total points which is why they are getting double digi...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-06-2007
70% of the betting public is on Oregon State in this one. We're on the other side. Oregon State plays their second straight Thursday night game here. They won their first game over Utah in convinc...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2007
Primetime father vs. son matchup here in round #9 of the "Bowden Bowl." While Bobby Bowden won the first four, the younger Bowden has won three of the last four. Clemson got o...