College Football Betting Pick - September 27, 2008

Last week we suffered our first setback, going 4-5. We are hitting 59% on the season for +19.5 units. This week we like 7 picks - one Thursday play and six on Saturday. Four of our games are on national TV (ABC and ESPN). Good luck to you this week!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: U S C at Oregon State (Thursday 9/25 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Oregon State +25 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one things can hang. USC has been impressive in their first two games, outscoring the opponents 87-10. Heck, they beat Ohio State by more than this spread. But, I like the home team in this spot. USC seems to always be one of those teams that throws up a stinker or two every year. No better spot than here. The Trojans have to be drinking their own koolaid and how can they get up for this game after their big game vs. Ohio State. If ever there's a spot for overconfidence, this is it. The USC talent is rich, but they take parts of games off, and appear disinterested at times. Who could forget a loss at home last year as a 39 point chalk to lowly Stanford. Then just two years ago, running off to a 6-0 start and looking like they were gonna run the table, they come to Corvallis as a double-digit chalk and lose the game outright. They don't show for the trivial games, and as a double-digit road chalk over the last three years they have managed just a 4-8 ATS record. Oregon State has enough offense to find the endzone a couple times and make this one stay within a lofty number. Sure, a few Beaver turnovers and this could get out of hand. But, on the flipside, a few USC mistakes and covering 25 on the road starts to look difficult. The Beavers have had two weeks to prepare for this and you know they and their fans will be up for this. Under Mike Riley, this team is 9-2 ATS coming off their bye week! If history repeats, USC will show a lack of interest in covering. Oregon State has covered five of their last six games as a home dog to a Top 10 team and USC is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven Pac-10 road openers. I'll ride the big number on the Beavers at home.

After beating Indiana 42-20 last week to improve to 4-0, Ball State may be in position to run the table. The Cardinals offense has been balanced and lethal, as Nate Davis has connected on 72.6% of his passes for 1,155 yards and an amazing 10.2 yards per attempt. MiQuale Lewis is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry and five Cardinals recievers are averaging over 14 yards per catch. Kent State hasn't covered spread in six tries dating back to last season vs. good passing teams (58%+ completion). On offense, the Golden Flashes have been flat, getting just 488 yards out of Julian Edelman with more INTs than touchdowns. And, the running game has consisted of Edelman scrambling out of trouble, with no back over 145 yards in four games. It's been a one-man show for the Flashes, and that won't be near enough to stop the Cardinals, who are scoring in big doses and should be able to name the score in this one. Under head coach Doug Martin, the Flashes are just 16-29 ATS including 8-18 ATS coming off a loss and 1-15 ATS vs. solid passing teams (58%+ completion rate). I'll ride the Cardinals to win big here.

How things have changed at Syracuse over the last several years. Once a fixture in the Top 25, the Orange have fallen from competitiveness. All you hear about is how the Cuse is blown out at home game after game, but the reality is their home schedule was murder last year. They were blown out by Cincinnati, South Florida, Illinois, West Virginia and Rutgers. Those were all teams nationally ranked at some point during the season. They just got spanked by Penn State and the rumbles continue. But Penn State is a good team! Pittsburgh is not even close to any of those teams, but those teams help create the value here. The Panthers have their own problems, losing by 10 to Bowling Green at home. And, they have not been to a Bowl in three years themselves. They have not come close to blowing Syracuse out lately, as these teams are a lot closer than this line represents. Pitt barely got by Syracuse last year at home, winning by 3. They won at the Dome two years ago by 10, and lost in the Dome four years ago by 7. The Orange are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games coming off a home win and I look for them to carry the momentum from last week's win into this one. This is too much respect for a team that hasn't earned it yet, and I'll back the Cuse in this one to stay in this game, and within the number.

This game represents the single-biggest lopsided affair this week from a betting perspective as over 71% of the public is on the Spartans. Despite that, the line has actually moved from 8.5 to 8! Michigan State is all about one player - Jevon Ringer, who is piling up the yards and has already scored 11 TDs. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer has just one TD pass and two INTs. It is no secret what Michigan State is going to do, but now the competition gets tougher and the yards may not come as freely. The Spartans started 4-0 last year but after Big-10 play began, they went just 3-5 and lost their Bowl game as well. Indiana will offer more resistance as they are ranked #33 in the country on defense, allowing just 3.14 ypc. This appears to be a stage for running the ball. The Hoosiers are doing a great job on the ground themselves as they have averaged 269 ypg, and that should help shorten the game. The Hoosiers can supply enough resistance to the State ground game, which makes 8 points becomes quite a lot to cover, especially on the road in the Big-10. I'll back what could be a barking dog in this one.

Here we get two top BCS schools, both who have been down for a bit, coming back to life. The Noles offense got a quick dose of reality last week. After scoring 115 in their first two games, they didn't set foot in the end-zone vs. Wake Forest, managing a lonely FG for the game. They tried two quarterbacks but the results were the same: bad (five INTs and little ball movement). Colorado scored a big win on national television, beating a favored and ranked West Virginia team at home in OT. It was the third straight win for the Buffs who are eager to see the Top 25 for the first time in a long time. A win here on the road vs. another ranked opponnent will get them there and they can taste it. While the Mountaineers ripped off chunks of yardage between the 20s, they could not convert to points as the Colorado defense made stops on key third and fourth downs. They held Pat White to just 43 passing yards. That same problem will be at hand for Florida State in this one. Even if they can run, the yards don't come as easy in the red-zone, and the passing game is non-existent. This should be a defensive battle, with field goals likely to make the scoreboard more frequently than touchdowns. So, getting a couple on the board as a head start makes this look like a lively dog. The oddsmakers seem reluctant to recognize that Colorado is a good team - the better team on the field in this one. I'll take Colorado plus the points.

Alabama seems to be the pick of choice for most in this one as they have gotten a lot of ink after their 4-0 start. Georgia started the season ranked #1 but despite also going 4-0, has slipped in the polls. They may have something to say about that percieved lack of respect. They have already gone on the road to South Carolina, winning by 7, a most difficult task in the SEC. And they went cross-country to Arizona State and humiliated a very good team 27-10, limiting the Sun Devils to 4 yards rushing on 19 carries. They held South Carolina to 18 yards rushing. Georgia is as superb and talented team on both sides of the ball - probably moreso than any team in the country aside from USC. I have a lot of respect for Alabama, but they are coming into Georgia sneaking up on no one. Between the hedges, I don't believe Alabama has the athletes or the overall talent to stay with this Georgia team who is motivated to post a win in a big game. The Tide caught all the weak teams on the road last year, and even though they are a team on the rise, they have a long way to go to stay with the Bulldogs on the road. Richt is 30-19 ATS vs. winning teams at Georgia and 22-11 ATS vs. teams with a margin-of-victory average of 10+ points. This is a statement game for Georgia and they'll be ready.

The annual battle for the Freemont Cannon takes center stage in Vegas here. When you look at the Nevada defensive numbers they look scarily bad. They rank #107 in the country, having given up 434 yards per game. Then when you consider they have played the top offense in the country (Missouri) and the #3 offense in the country (Texas Tech), it doesn't look nearly as bad, especially when you consider those teams average nearly 600 per game each! Then throw in the fact that even against that type of competition they are ranked 11th in the country offensively. What is the result? A hidden live dog! UNLV has generated no pass rush at all, as they have just four sacks in as many games, ranking them 98th in the country. They also have done poorly in generating tackles for a loss, ranking just 108th in that category. Under Mike Sanford, UNLV is 1-8 ATS vs. WAC opponents. Nevada has owned this game of late winning the last three, and I don't see that changing this year. 

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
This game could get ugly, as Penn State has been hanging some huge numbers against some meager competiton. The question is, how much will Penn State score? Let's not forget that Temple held Connec...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
The Wildcats have lit-up the scoreboard in their first two games, putting up 45 against North Texas and 69 against Montana State. But don't be fooled. Last year this team tallyed 34 gaianst San Jo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-12-2008
We faded Maryland last week and good thing as the Terps lost by 10 points as a 12.5 point favorite. They have not been able to get anything going on offense, and they will be hoping for different...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-10-2008
Rutgers has found that life after Ray Rice is going to be difficult. Last week they were held to less than 10 points in a game for just the second time in 29 games. Mike Teel moved the team between th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-05-2008
Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen ...