Ncaa Football Prediction - September 26, 2009

We are coming off a very good Saturday last week as we went 4-3 on the ATS picks and also hit with one of our big Upset Alerts with Washington winning outright at +800 over USC. I've got eight Upset Alerts this week along with a Thursday night pick and eight Saturday picks (including a two-team moneyline parlay)...

Did you know I have put up five straight winning months and September is again winning and on it's way to being number six?

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Mississippi at South Carolina (Thursday 9/24 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on South Carolina +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Ole Miss was the surprise team in the SEC a year ago. They even went into the swamp and shocked the eventual National Champion Gators for their only loss of the season. The Rebels will again be good offensively, but they took a hit in the offensive line when All-American Micheal Oher left for the NFL. They also took a hit on the defensive line with the departure of another All-American Jerry Peria. The Achilles heel of this team however is the secondary, which was torched for 221 yards per game a year ago, finishing dead last in the SEC. That may not be good news in this one as South Carolina is throwing the ball over 40 times per game and had over 300 yards against Georgia in the air on the road. The Gamecocks addressed a running game that produced only 94 yards per game last year with a true freshman sensation in Jarvis Giles who is electric and has averaged nearly six yards per carry already to start his career.The Rebels have not been tested yet, and the first tough game is tonight. Meanwhile South Carolina has already been on the road at Georgia. Mississippi has not been kind to their backers on the road as a favorite as they are just 2-8 in their last 10 as a road chalk. This has been a dog-laden series, with the underdog getting the win in four of their last five meetings. Under Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks are 17-8 ATS in their first five games of the season and Spurrier is 70-45 ATS in his career in conference games. It will be a tough one under the lights for the Rebels and I'm backing South Carolina in this one.

I really like these two teams to win outright this week. By putting the two favorites in a parlay together, we get odds of -230 for a play in which I think we have an 80%+ chance of winning. Michigan is on a mission for redemption and taking no prisoners. Indiana is 12-42 straight-up in conference road games over the past fifteen years and they have nearly no shot here. Stanford gets Washington, a team off a massive upset last week over USC. The chances of Washington again getting up enough to produce back-to-back stunners is extremely low. I included the Huskies in my Upset Alert last week because USC has a history of falling flat in games like that. Stanford won't be caught off guard this week. When facing a good passing team like the Cardinal, Washington is just 1-8 striaght-up the past three seasons. Washington can't do it again this week. Parlay the Wolverines and the Cardinal together on the moneyline at -230.

I picked against Miami last week and I was dead wrong. Their team speed absolutely dominated Georgia Tech. But, I am going to fade them again this week. I guess I'm a glutton for punishment. In a game that started out as a pick'em, the home team is now getting points. I think this is an overreaction to what happened last week in primetime. Over 77% of the public is on Miami here thanks to that thrashing of the Yellow Jackets. It's been four years since these two teams were ranked heading into their matchup. If Miami can pull off this win, it will be the first time they've won three straight games vs. Top 25 teams since 2001. I just think it's asking too much for them to win this game on the road, versus a superb Tech team after two tussles with Top 25 teams. This is the third big game for them and they are going into a hostile environment against the #11 ranked team in the nation. The Hokies are 36-23 ATS in September games under Frank Beamer and 60-43 ATS after back-to-back wins. I like the Hokies at home with the points.

North Carolina State came out of nowhere last season to turn a 2-6 start into a Bowl bid by running the table in their last four games. They covered the spread in nine of their last ten games. The expectations have followed those results into this season. They have whipped up on two cupcakes, but found the going tough at home vs. South Carolina where the Wolfpack offense generated just three points. They put up an anemic 133 yards for the game. Pittsburgh on the other hand, comes in 3-0 after an impressive win over a Navy team that is better than NC State, at least at this point of the season as Navy previously went into Ohio State and lost by just four points. The impressive part for the Panthers is that they held a Navy rushing attack, which always generates major yardage, to just 129 yards on 46 carries (2.8 ypc). The Panthers are getting great QB play from Bill Stull who has completed 70% of his passes for six TDs and just one interception. And, Dion Lewis has been sensational on the ground with 398 yards on 67 attempts getting 6 yards per carry. The problem for NC State is they are paper thin on both the offensive and defensive line where the games are ultimately won or lost. Pitt is 13-5 ATS on the road the past four seasons and NC State is on a 12-22 ATS run as a home favorite. In their last 15 games as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points, the Wolfpack are just 3-12 ATS. I like the Panthers to win this game.

It always looks scary playing against a Florida team that can hang a 50 on you in the drop of a hat. You have to pick your spots and this is the perfect breather game for the Gators. They are coming off their grudge match vs. Tennessee, one in which everyone thought they'd run up the score because of the ongoing feud between Lane Kiffin and Urban Meyer. But the Gators were not able to do it, winning at home by just 10. The Wildcats catch the Gators in a perfect letdown spot after the big emotional rivalry game, especially considering what is on deck for the Gators (a road game at LSU). Kentucky was once the doormat of the SEC, but they have been catching up to the pack in the conference. They have been much more competitive in recent years, especially at home. How improved are they? If they lose to the Gators by more than three TDs, it will be their first home loss by a margin this big in more than three years. Also, it would be their biggest home loss since losing to Georgia all the way back in November 6 of 2004! The Wildcats have played well early in the season as they are 15-6 ATS in September under head coach Rich Brooks. They have also embraced the role as a home dog as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. Kentucky has covered the spread in this matchup five out of the last seven years. This is an easy letdown game for the Gators and the Cats are “Mild Cats” no more. I like Kentucky here.

Army has been a program mired in futility. Although somewhat improved, they are still a team that has won fewer than five games in each of the last 12 seasons where they have compiled a straight-up mark of 33-118. This is a team that has gone 6-16 ATS against current BCS schools outside of Texas (lots of roster players usually from Texas, and schedule a game there annually). It is rare to find them as a road favorite or an underdog of 10 or less, but such is the case in this one. Over the past 13 years as a road favorite or a road dog of 10 or less, the Black Knights are bad, going just 4-15 ATS! Iowa State has moved the ball well in two of their games against comparable competition, and was stopped cold when they had to move up in class vs. Iowa. They will be able to move the ball against Army as even Ball State, returning nothing, had success vs. this team. Army might be the seductive play here as the talk is more of how much they have improved, but despite the hype, they are still just 1-2 ATS. And, there is a big gap between an annually struggling Independent and a BCS school, even one that hovers near the bottom of the Big-12. Army is 13-28 ATS over the past fifteen years as a road dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have gone 9-1 ATS in their last ten home games vs. a team that can't pass the ball well (48% or less) and Army's completing just 40.5% of their passes. And, Iowa State is 22-109 ATS at home following a win. I'll go with Iowa State here.

Toledo rolled a very bad Colorado team two weeks ago 54-38. Outside of that, they have really struggled. They gave up 52 points to Purdue in their opener and lost 38-0 to Ohio State last week. Granted, Florida International is not a Big Ten team, but Toledo just isn't worthy of the road favorite role. The Golden Panthers are on the uptick. They returned 10 of 11 offensive starters from last year including their QB. They went 1-11 in 2007 and 5-7 last season. This year they are 0-2 to start, but they had to play Alabama on the road in their opener and again head to the road last week vs. Rutgers. They gave Rutgers a fight, losing by 8 points as a 16 point underdog. They struggled on offense in both of those first two games but they now face a team giving up over 500 yards and 42 points per game. I like the home dog here.

Penn State continues to roll under Coach Paterno who must be 97 years old by now. While many have written his obituary, the fact is that he has assembled some good talent at Penn State, and has a very strong defense. The difference from this team and what he put out a year ago will be on the offensive side of the ball. Penn State was highly explosive offensively a year ago and it showed against their four out-of-conference games to start the season as they put up an average of over 53 points per game. This season, the offense has not been nearly as potent as they have scored just 30 ppg against some very weak teams. The defense will remain the force of this team, but the offense has already shown signs of struggle against weak teams as they lost three of the top four wide receivers of all time at Penn State. Iowa will have a more experienced Ricky Stanzi back to head the offense behind center. The Hawkeyes may have shown something this year as they always struggle against Iowa State, but completely thrashed them and the defense has looked tough. This has also been a good role for the Hawkeyes as they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a 3.5-10 point dog, while it has been one of the worst for Penn State who is 5-12-1 ATS in that same role as a favorite. Iowa has done well in Happy Valley as they are 4-1 ATS their last five trips in here. Kirk Ferentz is 46-33 ATS at Iowa in conference games. Under Paterno, the Nittany Lions are 16-31 ATS vs. teams that allow 310 or fewer yards per game. And, they are 0-14 ATS when facing a team that allows under 13 points per game! In what looks to be a defensive struggle, getting double-digitis is a gift. I'm going with Iowa in this one.

The Dallas Cowboys have been crowned America's team in the NFL. The closest thing we have to that in the college rnaks is Notre Dame. What does it mean? It usually spells line value on the other side and such is the case here. With the Irish making a splash once again on the national scene, they are again attracting the public's attention. Notre Dame makes its annual early season tour through the Big-10 and in their last 23 against them, the Irish are just 9-14 ATS including 0-2 ATS this season. The Boilermakers are getting line value here as they got caught looking ahead last week and dropped their game to Northern Illinois. As a result of that, and the importance of this game, they will come to play vs. the Irish. The Notre Dame offense is running smoothly, but the same can't be said of a defense that has allowed 38 points to Michigan on the road, and then 30 to Michigan State at home. The Irish were considered to be a BCS Bowl caliber team and while they are much improved, allowing nearly 1,000 yards the last two weeks says otherwise. The Irish offense was outgained by the opponent in both games. Purdue faced an explosive offense in Oregon and matched them score for score, losing by just two points on the road. I think they can score on this Irish defense, especially at home, and the points are too high here. I'll go with Purdue in this one.

Results: 6-3

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-01-2009
Syracuse has been a surprise this season, winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2006. While every win counts equally in the standings, you can hardly get excited about a win ov...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2009
Hawaii was a very high profile offense under June Jones, going almost exclusively through the air. Last year the Warriors were breaking in a new QB and didn't have the lofty numbers as expected. N...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-18-2009
The Broncos have become a mainstay in BCS talk every season. This year's 2-0 start has them up to No. 10 in the rankings and the talk is again on. This team is definitely for real, but at what poi...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-16-2009
Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson was criticized when he said he would make the option offense work in the ACC as many of his detractors said you can't run that offense in the ACC. The ACC was suppo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-11-2009
Last year the Tar Heels destroyed a then-ranked Huskies’ squad to the tune of 38-12. The game turned as the Huskies played an unusually mistake-prone game, with three INTs and the Heels blocked ...