Winning Football Pick - September 22, 2007

After a winning week two, we've started off week 3 0-2. Really felt we should have split 'em last night but 20 fourth quater points, including a meaningless A&M touchdown with 5 seconds left, spoiled the UNDER. Note that our pick on Tulsa is a 4-unit play. We had sent out mistakenly sent it out Thursday as a 3-unit play, but it is a 4-unit play. 

Below are the remainder of the weekend picks.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Oklahoma at Tulsa (Friday 9/21 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tulsa +23

Oklahoma has roared out of the games to a perfect 3-0 mark both SU and ATS. They have outscored opponents 184-26. They have dominated completely. A perfect time to fade them. Oddsmakers opened this one up installing the Sooners, in their first road game, as 21 point favorites. The public has already bet this up to -23. How "up" can they  be for this game, especially with a short week to prepare. When you crush your first three opponents by an average score of 61-9, and face a team like Tulsa, it is hard to remain motivated to bring your A game. They are already getting cocky and overconfident. After last week's 54-3 drubbing of Utah State, QB Sam Bradford said "If we get 12 of these wins right here, then that would be just fine with me. "You really can't complain with this stuff." True, you are killing all comers. But statements like that come back to bite you more often than not, Sam. Show some humility. Tulsa's QB Paul Smith is nothing to sneeze at. He is ranked 5th in the nation in passer rating (195.9 rating!). In just two games he's thrown for 761 yards and eight touchdowns. This is a big game for Tulsa, no doubt, with a national TV bout vs. a Top 5 team. They, unlike Oklahoma, are sure to bring their best game and be motivated. It doesn't hurt that they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a home underdog. More on the potential Sooners letdown? When coming off a home win, Oklahoma is just 3-7 ATS the last five seasons as a double-digit road favorite. They are 2-10 ATS in their last twelve games after 3+ straight ATS wins. The Sooners are also 3-18 ATS in their last 21 after gaining 300+ rushing yards in their previous game and 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games after holding two straight opponents to 14 points or less. Too many points for a home dog against a team that is ripe for a letdown.

How perceptions can change. Michigan loses in The Big House to Appalachian St.te and then gets shredded by Oregon. Everyone is down on them. But did this team suddenly lose all the talent that earned them a Top 5 preseason ranking? Hardly! We take you back to the '98 season when a loaded Michigan team drops their first two games, both as a favorite, and everyone is screaming "overrated." What do they do? They go on to win the Big Ten title. That year they faced Penn State at home as a +3 dog. The result? They hammered Joe Pa's Nittany Lions 58-21! The '88-89 Michigan team also started 0-2, and went on to win the Big Ten Championship as well. So beware of history, because it has a tendency to repeat itself. The fact is, the 0-2 start makes this line chock full of value. Most folks still remember those first two games and have discoutned Michigan's 38-0 pasting of Notre Dame last week. Penn State has not beaten Michigan since 1996! It won't happen this season either. The eight straight Michigan wins vs. the Nittany Lions is the longest such streak against Joe Pa in his lustrious coaching career. Michigan is also 24-1 in their Big Ten openers. Penn State was in a game vs. Notre Dame leading by just 7 late in the third quarter, while Michigan sent an early message to ND, that this team is back! Last year Michigan held this Penn State team to -14 yards rushing on their own field! Michigan held a 17-3 lead with a who cares TD generated by Penn State late. Ryan Mallett didn't have to pass much last week, but when he did early he showed he was capeable. He connected for three TD passes early, then Michigan turned the offense over to Micheal Hart. There is no doubt in our eyes that Michigan will show up big, as they have their swagger back, and they have the better team, getting points at home.

N. Illinois has been pretty horid thus far. They are 0-3 and coming off a loss as a 12.5 point favorite. As a result, the public has overreacted. This game opened up as a pick 'em and has moved all the way to Idaho -3. Idaho is 1-2 on the season and they've been outscored 58-96. The Huskies have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. non-conference foes. Huskies RB Justin Anderson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and QB Dan Nicholson is hitting 69% of his passes. Against the Vandals, we think they can have some success. In contrast, Idaho's Nathan Enderle, a redshirt freshman, is really struggling, completing just 44%. Joe Novak is a solid coach with a 31-20 ATS road record at N. Illinois, including a good 8-1 mark when coming off three straight losses. We like N. Illinois' chances at an upset here.

New Mexico State's offense can keep them in any game. Chase Holbrook threw for 384 yards per game last season and so far this year he's improved on that in 2007, averaging nearly 400 per game on 74% accuracy. The offense as a whole is putting up 523 yards per game (6.7 per play) and 33 points per contest. Auburn has been a major dissapointment thus far. They are 1-2 at a point they were expected to be sitting pretty at 3-0. They beat Kansas State in their opener but failed to cover the spread. Then they lost back-to-back games as heavy favorites. South Florida beat them 23-26 as a 7 point dog and Mississippi State won 19-14 last week getting 12 from the Tigers. Auburn is averaging just 20 points per game, a result of returning just five starters from the 2006 squad. This is just too many points, especially considering that Auburn could be caught looking ahead to next week's big matchup vs. Florida. After last week's debacle vs. Mississippi State, Auburn's record in their last nine as a double-digit favorite? 0-9. Take this potent offense against an overrated Tigers team.

Connecticut lost 44 starts due to injury last season - more than any team in the Big East and more than most teams in the country. Randy Edsall has begun to recruit, and stock this team with superb players. The injuries allowed many players to get their baptism under fire in 2006. Coupling that with deeper and better recruiting, UCONN now has something it has never had in any season under Edsall - depth! The Huskies mediocre home performance vs. a hapless Temple team last week has loaded this line chock full of value. That Temple game was a look ahead for this Huskies group, anxious to get the Big East season rolling. The last couple of seasons the Huskies were without a leader on offense. They tried Hernandez at QB, and he simply could not move the team. They also tried Bonislawski, and he wasn't the answer either. Neither threw for even 1,000 yards. The Huskies attack was on the ground. That made them easy to defend, as teams stacked eight or nine in the box and dared the Huskies to throw. And they couldn't. Enter JC transfer Tyler Lorenzen who threw for 3,000 yards with 26 TDs and 3 INTs as a JC. The Huskies are immediately upgraded. They have also sent DJ Hernandez to WR, which gives them more speed, and a game-breaker outside. Lorenzen has already thrown for nearly as many yards as the best QB from last season, and has completed 68.2% with only two INT'S. Donald Brown is now backed up by Andre Dixon, who went over 100 yards last week, and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. The Huskies are also better defensively, and now the shoe is on the other foot. Tyler Palko had a great career at Pitt, but now the offense is led by Kevan Smith and Bill Stull. The Panthers have four INTs and just two TD passes. LeSean McCoy leads the ground attack, but the Panthers remind us of the Huskies last year. They don't trust the young QB to open up the offense yet. Despite the efforts of Palko, Pitt was out-gained by over 75 yards per game in Big East play and had a +8 trunover margin. Those fortunes should reverse, with the inexperience this season. Connecticut beat this team last season, and sent Pitt into a tailspin from which they never recovered. This year the Huskies have the firepower and the defense to hang within this lofty number at the very least.

Toledo has started the season 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS while Iowa State is coming off a huge upset win over Iowa. Perfect time to go contrarian here and back what most consider to be a bad Toledo team. Iowa State, prior to the fluke win over Iowa, was 0-2 having lost to Kent State and N. Iowa. They were favored vs. Kent and the N. Iowa game wasn't even lined. Don't overreact to one week. The fact remains that Iowa State brought back just four starters on offense and are lead by a new head coach. This is the first road game for this young offense and new coach and the hostile environment of the Glass Bowl will be a big change from the last three games - all at home. ISU is just 4-21 ATS in their last 25 artificial turf games. Toledo is 30-5 straight-up under head coach Tom Amstutz here at home. Take Toledo plus the points!

Results: 4-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View our 2007 football picks here.
• Take a look at our college football ATS records here.
• Here we show our Football Game-of-Week Analysis.
• Check out college football picks blog here.
• View our sportsbook reviews college football here.
• View our updated NCAA football spreads.
• View our guide to betting college football here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA football prior picks here.
• Hop over to our 2007 college football team previews here.
• Hop over to our picks football here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-19-2007
In the first road test for the Aggies, we like their chances against a Miami team that struggled mightily in their first game vs. a Big 12 opponent. The Hurricanes lost 13-51 to Oklahoma in week two. ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-13-2007
Troy comes home licking their wounds after back-to-back losses on the road at Arkansas and Florida. Talk about a tough schedule! They gave up 105 total points which is why they are getting double digi...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-06-2007
70% of the betting public is on Oregon State in this one. We're on the other side. Oregon State plays their second straight Thursday night game here. They won their first game over Utah in convinc...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2007
Primetime father vs. son matchup here in round #9 of the "Bowden Bowl." While Bobby Bowden won the first four, the younger Bowden has won three of the last four. Clemson got o...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-29-2007
Charlie Weatherby may have his best team yet at ULM this year. He has yet to have a winning record at ULM, but this season should change and a Bowl bid is not out of the question. The Warhawks return ...