Ncaa Football Picks - September 20, 2008

On Thursday night we hit with our top play (4-units) on Louisville as they won outright and lost on our smaller 3-unit play on the UNDER. The winning night boosted us to 21-12 for +26.4 units on the season. We have eight Saturday picks...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Temple at Penn State (Saturday 9/20 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 55.5 -110

This game could get ugly, as Penn State has been hanging some huge numbers against some meager competiton. The question is, how much will Penn State score? Let's not forget that Temple held Connecticut to just 6 points prior to OT a couple of weeks ago. And, I believe Joe Pa will call off the dogs this week. There are five former Penn State players on the coaching staff at Temple. This is a good guy that doesn't want to embarrass these guys any more than is necessary. Last year Penn State won this game 31-0 and the year before 47-0. Paterno had his third string QB playing in the second half. There is another reason I believe this game will stay under the total. Look at the scores from the last two years. Temple has not found the scoreboard in two years against this tough Nittany Lion defense and last year they managed a total of two first downs and 90 total yards! It is quite likely they do not find it again this season, as the Penn State defense is even better. Joe Pa shows mercy, and the Nittany defense could be pitching another shutout. Last week Penn State hung 55 on Syracuse. Over the past five years, Paterno's teams have gone UNDER 20 of 27 times after a game in which they scored 42 or more. I like the UNDER.

Florida Atlantic made a good showing against a tough Michigan State team last week. There was one difference maker on the field for Michigan State, who managed just 339 yards of offense. Javon Ringer was responsible for 276 on the ground and another 12 recieving, good for 288 of the 339 yards! Minnesota doesn't have Jevon Ringer, or anyone close to him. Also remember that FAU put up over 600 yards on this Gophers team last season in an upset win. The offense that put those numbers up on Minnesota are back, as 10 starters return. Minnesota won just one game last season, and it took them OT to salvage a bad winless season. They are improved this season, but FAU returns 18 starters from a year ago and they have a legitimate shot at repeating the upset of last year. I'll back them here getting a touchdown.

The SEC has now gone into the record books with five teams in the top 10. Top to bottom this is the best conference in football right now. It is very very difficult to play anywhere on the road in this conference, no matter which teams are playing. Laying two scores on the road is just too much. That especially rings true given the fact that Alabama is not a big play, quick-strike offense. In fact, their scoring drives have averaged over eight plays per drive. That Tide philosophy has kept them from winning big on the road in the SEC where they own just one win by more than a TD since 2005. That makes the TD+ here look very valuable. Bobby Petrino is 17-6 ATS in home games and he'll have his team ready. Arkansas had it's game last week postponed vs Texas, so they have had ample time to gameplan here for the Tide. I look for them to hang close here.

Make no mistake about it, Missouri could cover this total themselves. In fact they fell just short of it last week with 69. This Tigers team is scoring on just about every possession, as they are making it look easy. Chase Daniel is a bonafide Heisman candidate and certainly he will use this one to pad his already lofty numbers which read 65-88 (74%) with 10 TDs and just one INT. Buffalo has put up 88 points in three weeks, so they will likely make a contribution on the scoreboard here. One tell-tale sign that Missouri takes no prisnors is the fact they kicked a 4th quarter FG last week up 42 vs Nevada. This looks like a sky-high total, but when one team can potentially reach it themselves, and the other competent on offense, I'll back the OVER.

I said it in the Arkansas write-up, but I'll say it again. Giving a TD+ on the road in SEC play is dangerous territory. There is a payback at play here, as the Vols feel like the Gators ran it up last year at the swamp when they won 59-20. Florida piled on 24 points in the fourth quarter in that one and Tennessee has been promising revenge ever since. Yes, this one has been circled for a year, so you know what kind of energy the Vols will bring. They are 11-2 at home the last two years. Both losses were by a combined 5 points, yet we get over a TD here. Florida does not have the offense clicking and the Volunteers secondary is their strength. The Gators under Urban Meyer are just 2-9 ATS on the road, while the Vols have been a deadly home dog at 4-0 since 2006. With Phil Fullmer at the helm, Tennessee is good after a dissapointing performance, going 50-37 ATS after an ATS loss and 21-10 ATS after back-to-back spread losses. The Vols get the cover, and maybe the win here.

On paper this game looks like a total mismatch. Utah has the more athletic team, and has a big advantage in team speed, and the better QB. But the game isn't played on paper. The fact is, Utah has never solved the triple option. Look back to the Bowl game against Navy last year where Utah struggled to stop the Navy triple option, allowing 316 yards rushing at 5.4 yards per carry. Last year this Air Force team went to Utah as a TD underdog, and ground out 334 yards with this offense, racking up 5.3 yards per carry. The Falcons have averaged about 30 per game vs Utah over six years. They will certainly move the ball, and offer enough resistance on defense to hang within this inflated number.

This could be a bad spot for Rice. They are catching Texas off a bye last week created by hurricane Ike. That means there well prepared, well rested, and probably will be seeing a lot of the starters even if the game gets out of hand because they need a live game to work from. Rice took on three Big-12 teams last year and gave up an average of 53 per game with 58 of them going to Texas. Texas has scored over 50 vs. Rice the last three years. Rice is a superb offensive team, and they will get some points in this one, as they managed almost 20 per game vs the Big-12 teams last year. Dating back to last season, this team has gone 13-1 OVER while Texas is a perfect 8-0 OVER in their last eight games with a total of 63 or more points. I like this one to sail OVER the total.

This is a very difficult spot for Fresno State. They had the big win over Rutgers and needed a win vs. Wisconsin last week to establish legitimacy. With a win in that game, and a spotless conference record, they would have sealed a BCS bid. Yes, their hopes were high. They let it all out last week vs. Wisconsin, but came up a field goal short. It would be unimaginable they come back on the road at Toledo and play with any energy at all. What complicates matters more for the Bulldogs is they have UCLA on deck, so this becomes the perfect sandwich game where they are a no show. Toledo is a very difficult place to win on the road where the Rockets stand 41-6 in their last 47 games. I will back the Rockets here expecting a disinterested Bulldogs team to find themselves in a fight.

Results: 4-6

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
The Wildcats have lit-up the scoreboard in their first two games, putting up 45 against North Texas and 69 against Montana State. But don't be fooled. Last year this team tallyed 34 gaianst San Jo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-12-2008
We faded Maryland last week and good thing as the Terps lost by 10 points as a 12.5 point favorite. They have not been able to get anything going on offense, and they will be hoping for different...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-10-2008
Rutgers has found that life after Ray Rice is going to be difficult. Last week they were held to less than 10 points in a game for just the second time in 29 games. Mike Teel moved the team between th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-05-2008
Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2008
An SEC early-season matchup brings Steve Spurrier's high-profile Gamecocks to Vanderbilt. The home team is expected to get blown out. We beg to differ. While most expect this to be a down year for...