Winning Football Picks - September 20, 2007
We posted another winning week last week (3-2) in college football and now sit at 59% on the young season.
We will be sending out Saturday's card on Friday. In this newsletter, we have picks for Thursday and Friday games.
Today's NCAA Football Picks:
Game: Texas A & M at Miami (Thursday 9/20 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas A & M +2.5
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 46.5 -110
In the first road test for the Aggies, we like their chances against a Miami team that struggled mightily in their first game vs. a Big 12 opponent. The Hurricanes lost 13-51 to Oklahoma in week two. That game was sandwiched between two cupcakes in Marshall and Florida International. Last week they beat Florida International 23-9 but underperformed as a 33 point favorite. So, can Miami play against good teams? They haven't proven it yet. Texas A&M returned 9 starters on offense and ranks third in the nation in rushing (296 yards per game). They are averaging over twice as many points per game this season than Miami. This offense, combined with Miami's struggling offense, will spell doom for the Hurricanes. After losing last game ATS, Miami is now riding a very poor 11-21 ATS streak at home. They just aren't the same Miami team. They are just 1-7 in their last eight vs. ranked opponents! This is a huge game for the Aggies who have had this one circled since the schedule came out. It's their first chance to start 4-0 in over 60 years! "Aggies defensive back Devin Gregg said this week, "Coach said it best. It can be exposure, or we can be exposed." We think A&M comes to play tonight. While piling up points early is commonplace for A&M, it doesn't necessarily continue as the competition stiffens. Last year they torched LA-Lafayette for 51 and Louisiana Tech for 45. And while we think they score enough here to get it done, points in this game for both squads will be at a premium. That same Aggies team last year when playing the Top 25 teams scored 25, 18, 12 and 10. This Miami team is not a Top 25 team, but it certainly is stout on defense, especially playing in front of the home crowd. What keeps this team out of the Top 25 is the offense, which averaged just 19.6 points per game last year. That was was their lowest output since 1979 and this year there's no reason to believe they'll be much better. The defense is another story. There have been some good Miami teams in the past decade, but none better against the run than last years 11. They gave up just 67.8 yards per game. There simply has not been a better defensive football team over the last eight seasons than Miami. They have allowed fewer touchdowns than any other team in the country. There have been some big offensive teams come to South Florida, and not generate much offense. The Hurricanes have now gone 18 straight games without the opponent getting more than 17 points on their turf (Clemson got 24 in an OT game), and 26 of the last 27 have failed to post over 20. In what should be a low-scoring tight affair, we like Texas A&M and the UNDER.
NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Football-Picks-September-13-2007
Troy comes home licking their wounds after back-to-back losses on the road at Arkansas and Florida. Talk about a tough schedule! They gave up 105 total points which is why they are getting double digi...
NCAA-Football-Picks-September-06-2007
70% of the betting public is on Oregon State in this one. We're on the other side. Oregon State plays their second straight Thursday night game here. They won their first game over Utah in convinc...
NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2007
Primetime father vs. son matchup here in round #9 of the "Bowden Bowl." While Bobby Bowden won the first four, the younger Bowden has won three of the last four. Clemson got o...
NCAA-Football-Picks-August-29-2007
Charlie Weatherby may have his best team yet at ULM this year. He has yet to have a winning record at ULM, but this season should change and a Bowl bid is not out of the question. The Warhawks return ...
