Ncaa Football Prediction - September 19, 2009

On Friday, I've got one pick in the Boise State - Fresno State game and on Saturday, I have seven selections. Good luck to you this week!

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Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Boise State at Fresno State (Friday 9/18 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Fresno State +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Broncos have become a mainstay in BCS talk every season. This year's 2-0 start has them up to No. 10 in the rankings and the talk is again on. This team is definitely for real, but at what point does the hype start affecting their lines? Well, maybe a prime-time Friday game on ESPN, coming off a 48-0 win is that time. Fresno State was supposed to be in position to knock them off a year ago, but a poor start and injuries led to a disappointing season. For the second straight year they took on Wisconsin, this time on the road, and dropped a three-point decision. Fresno jumped out to a quick 21-7 lead midway through the second quarter, but couldn't hold on despite garnering more first downs, more total yards, and a seven-minute time of possession edge. Wisconsin played a perfect game and the difference was a 3-0 turnover battle held by the Badgers. It was the first road game of the year for Fresno, and I would expect the mistakes would be minimized coming back home as they won the stat game vs. Wisconsin. Boise State is in a spot that over the years has proven to be their most prone to a no cover. The Broncos, over the last seven years, have had trouble with the jitters in their first road game as they come in just 1-6 ATS. They are just 10-11 ATS as a road favorite the past five years. Add in the fact that Bowl teams off a perfect 2-0 straight-up and ATS start have only been able to catch the ATS win 29% of the time in game three. Pat Hill has coached Fresno to an 8-4 ATS mark as a home dog, and owns a 61% track record as a dog. Fresno was humiliated 61-7 a year ago and it's payback time! The public is jumping on the Broncos here to the tune of over 70% and that's yet another indicator to me that the right side is Fresno. I will go with the Bulldogs here.

When you see an Army team as a TD+ favorite you certainly should take a close hard look at the game. This team was once a national power, but the last decade of Army football sure hasn't looked pretty. Since the turn of the century, covering nine seasons, Army owns a 20-85 straight-up record, winning just 19% of their football games this decade. During the course of those nine seasons, the Black Knights have never had a season where they won more than four games. Over the same period, they have been listed as a favorite just 10 times. If you exclude their game vs. Navy, where anything can happen, they are just 2-7 ATS as a favorite. And, when they have been favored by two points or more they are just 1-7 ATS, having lost straight up in five of those eight games. Those straight-up losses include one as a 15.5 point favorite and another as a 10 point favorite. The bottom line is that this team giving points, especially in this range, simply makes no sense. Ball State lost a lot of firepower from last year and has struggled, but what they do have is experience defending the triple option. They played Navy and beat them and their triple option each of the last two years. Army does not run it nearly as cleanly or as successfully (four turnovers did them in against Duke last week). I expect more of the same here and will back Ball State in this one.

This is an interesting battle and I like how these teams have been treated in the minds of the public and press over the years. Almost each and every year Clemson is deemed an ACC powerhouse. Yet by the end of the season, we seem to always be reading about how they underachieved. Boston College never gets the top billing, but year after year they seem to rise above expectations of the press and public, and finish under the radar. They then go on and in business-like fashion, win their Bowl game - something they have done in eight of the last nine years. Clemson had a big revenge game last week vs. Georgia Tech and before fans were comfortable in their seats, Tech was up 24-0. Clemson made a nice comeback, but after a 24-0 start, I think Tech got back on their heels a bit and wound up in a dog fight. In the end, Clemson lost and I don't think they are in a great spot here emotionally. Tack on the fact that this team is still learning under a new head coach and new quarterback, and laying a touchdown in a conference game is asking a lot. The Tigers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite in conference games. Boston College has long been considered the dog in this series vs. Clemson, yet the Eagles own a 5-1 mark lifetime and are 3-0 ATS on the road. Boston College is on the over-achiever list again this year and that's fine by me. I'll take BC and the points here.

As we all know, Michigan had a very disappointing year a season ago, but Rich Rodriguez has been known for some big turnarounds when he reaches his second season. After taking out a powerful Notre Dame last week, optimism is running high. Often these are good fade situations for a big favorite off an important win. But not in this case. I think Michigan is motivated and will deliver once again here. The biggest change at Michigan is where they thought they'd be hurting and that is at the QB position. The difference is a phenom named Tate Forcier. Forcier was highly touted out of high school where he completed over 70% of his passes, but stepping up the way he did as a freshman and leading his team for a game-winning score against a national powerhouse shows they have a gem. Forcier picked apart a good Notre Dame defense going 23-33 and 240 yards. The only question to be answered in this one is not if Michigan can cover the big number against a lowly cross-town rival, but will they show up after a big emotional win? After last season's humiliation, this team has a BCS Bowl mindset and won't be taking the week off. A peek at the last four years says a letdown is not coming as Michigan is a perfect 4-0 after Notre Dame including upset wins vs. Wisconsin and Penn State over that span. Do you think those are games they had to show up for because they were big games? Then how about four years ago when after Notre Dame they were a prohibitive four TD favorite against, guess who? Eastern Michigan. The final score was Michigan 55 - E. Michigan 0. Enough said. Michigan rolls here.

Last week was a stiff challenge for USC heading into the tough environment at Ohio State with a freshman QB. They came away proving once again that they are an extremely tough team, regardless of the situation. Matt Barkley may be a freshman but he is a senior when it comes to raw talent and leadership. He proved this by taking the Trojans down the field for the winning TD on their last drive. The problem this week is that he isn't likely to play. If he does, he's going to be hobbled with his shoulder injury and coming off very little if any practice. Without him, the Trojans head to Washington, a bad team that is down and out. While USC wins the big games, these are the games in which they struggle. Coming off a big emotional win in a huge game, this is the perfect spot for a let down. A look at the Pete Carroll-era shows the no-show Trojans just 1-5 ATS as a conference road favorite of 14+ and when taking to the road for the second straight week, they are just 2-7 ATS. In their last seven Pac-10 road openers, they are 1-6 ATS. While the Trojans have the talent to easily out-point the Huskies, history shows us that talent takes a snooze when the challenge and resistence is minimal. I'm taking the points here and going with Washington.

This is a big game for both of these teams, but Troy may have their eyes on the week ahead where they square off in a much more important battle with expected top threat in the Sun Belt - Arkansas State. UAB suffered a devastating unexpected loss against lowly SMU a week ago, and will be ready to leave those bad feelings on the field here against the men from Troy. The Blazers self-destructed vs. the Mustangs, commiting five costly turnovers. The Blazers have a superb balanced offense that went for over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. Troy was beat-up badly last week in the swamp, as expected, by the Gators 56-6. That's always deflating despite the fact it was expected. Troy also lost a very winnable game at Bowling Green. Their losses in the defensive secondary have been exploited in each of the first two weeks and UAB has the personnel to do it again. UAB is 44-26 as an underdog over the past fifteen years and Troy is 0-6 ATS following the last six times they were held under a touchdown last game. UAB has 18 returning starters compared to just 12 for Troy. I'll go with the better team here getting points on the road, as UAB gets the nod.

Both of these teams are down statistically on both sides of the ball with ranks around the No. 100 mark, so no inherent advantage from either side there. The big difference lies in the venue. San Diego State has been put in the favorite role here and I'm not sure how they earned that right. But I will gladly exploit it. The Aztecs are far removed from the day Marshall Faulk was King of College Football. They are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a win. This is a team that has won all of two games in the last 20 they have ventured out on the road to play, and they have covered just four of them. They have only been installed as a road favorite three times in the last six years, having come up empty in all three. They have not covered a game as road chalk since 2003! Meanwhile, the Vandals have been vandalizing the books, taking their last three at home for the money - all three times as a dog. They will also have the sweet essence of revenge on their minds for a 45-17 pasting they took at San Diego State a year ago. The Aztecs are also just 8-21 ATS after allowing less than 20 in their last game, showing the inconsistency they have had over the years. I'm going with the live home dog here.

My how things have changed! It wasn't long ago that Bowden's crew was winning 10+ games a year without a blink. That was then, this is now. The Seminoles come off a colossal struggle at home vs. Jacksonville State, where they needed a late score to escape the embarassment as a 34 point favorite. The mighty have fallen. If you need more proof, look at the fac that Bowden must take the troops on the road as a TD+ dog vs. a Mountain West team. Well it is the changing of the guard and it is now BYU with the talent and the special QB and a rugged defense that used to belong to the Noles. BYU was left standing outside the BCS party after a season-ending loss to Utah last year. They have a lot of the same cast returning and served notice in Norman in week one, handing the Sooners a blow. With a big win here,  BYU will once again be in the BCS talk, so expect them to come out with all barrels blazing at home for this one. Florida State once cruised through these types of games, but not anymore as Bowden's boys are now just 1-6 ATS in non-confrence underdogs in their last seven on the road. BYU moves into the national spotlight with a convincing win and cover here.

Results: 4-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View our Football Game-of-Week-Preview here.
• Check out 2009 football picks results here.
• View our football ATS standings here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA football odds and lines here.
• View our updated 2009 college football team previews .
• View our updated college football free football picks.
• View our updated College football betting philosophy.
• Read our NCAA football prior picks here.
• View our updated college football blog.
• Take a look at our football sports book here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-16-2009
Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson was criticized when he said he would make the option offense work in the ACC as many of his detractors said you can't run that offense in the ACC. The ACC was suppo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-11-2009
Last year the Tar Heels destroyed a then-ranked Huskies’ squad to the tune of 38-12. The game turned as the Huskies played an unusually mistake-prone game, with three INTs and the Heels blocked ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-09-2009
As I covered in my college football prop bet of the year, I think Clemson is going to struggle this season. The Tigers open ACC play with a game at Georgia Tech and I see them losing this one by ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-30-2009
The Ball State Cardinals put themselves on the map last season winning 12 games and a national ranking. The Cards lost a lot on offense and have just four starters returning. But, that includes RB MiQ...