Ncaa Football Bowl Predictions - September 15, 2007

We posted a 5-2 mark last week to boost our record to 58% on the year. This week we like five games including some prime-time matchups!

WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	263-218 last 481 picks	55%	+$7010
NFL	15-9 Season-to-Date	63%	+$1190
CFB	7-5 Season-to-Date	58%	+$590
TOTAL			+$8790

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Oklahoma State at Troy (Friday 9/14 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Troy +10

Troy comes home licking their wounds after back-to-back losses on the road at Arkansas and Florida. Talk about a tough schedule! They gave up 105 total points which is why they are getting double digits at home in this one. But, they covered the spread at Arkansas and just missed covering by a field goal at Florida. They face a good Oklahoma State team here, but let's be honest. The Big 12 is not the SEC. Losing big to Arkansas and Florida on the road is going to be expected from Troy. They now get a primetime matchup with no competing football games and they get it at home. Troy won seven of their last eight games last season and returns nine defensive starters. The bigger question coming into this season was offense as they returned just five starters from that squad. The fact that they put up 26 against Arkansas and 31 against Florida should tell us that isn't so much a concern. That's 57 points vs. SEC elite! There will be no intimidation here as Troy faced tougher foes than the Cowboys in the first two games. Instead, they'll be pumped to put up a good showing for the home crowd and the national TV audience. In contrast, Oklahoma State may come in a bit overconfident after their 42-6 home trashing of Florida Atlantic. The betting public is all over Oklahoma State here (77% on the Cowboys). We'll go the other way and back the home dog getting a hefty 10 points.

Some very storied programs have had a rough go of it early in 2007. Michigan and Notre Dame are 0-2. Could Ohio State be the next powerhouse to lose? Maybe! This is their first real test and they certainly didn't look dominant last week. They beat Akron 20-2 but they were laying 28 points. They coughed up the ball five times and led by only one point at halftime. Their defense looks good but they have beat up on lowly Akron and Youngstown State. The stats at this point are fairly meaningless. This week they get a real test from upstart Washington who easily handled #22 Boise State 24-10 last week. They snapped BSU's 14 game winning streak (was the longest in CFB). This team seems to have turned a corner under the motivated Ty Willingham (still bitter about the Notre Dame gig). This is Washington's (and Willingham's) big chance to make a huge statement. This stadium is going to be absolutely rocking and the Washington players are going to be as hyped as you can imagine for this opportunity to knock off a Top 10 team. They are on an emotional high and we think that translates into high-confidence and inspired play in this game. Ohio State is 7-3 vs. Washington all time but just 2-3 at Husky Stadium. The Huskies are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four as home dogs and 17-4 ATS in their last twenty one September games vs. non-conference foes. We like the motivated and talented Huskies here getting four at home.

Notre Dame comes to the Big House in a game has lost its luster from a fan's perspective. But it's still very important to both of these teams. An unheard-of 0-3 start awaits the loser. Ryan Mallett will start at QB for the Wolverines and he, as strange as it sounds, may be the infusion of energy this team needs. They have a rallying point to look to - a reason to believe things will be better. Think they have mailed it in? NOT! RB Mike Hart guaranteed a victory against the Irish, so they are coming to play. If you remember back to 1998, Michigan opened with losses to Notre Dame and Syracuse, and went on to win the Big Ten Championship. The problem so far this season has been a bad defense. In this game though they fortunately face a very weak Notre Dame offense. They are led by a freshman QB in Jimmy Clausen. The Wolverines defense struggled against mobile QB's running out of a spread offense, and that is not what Notre Dame has with Clausen. This is a Michigan team that was ranked in the top 5 in the country to start the season, so you know the talent is there somewhere. In contrast, this is an Irish team that was expected to struggle. And they have. Notre Dame used three QB's vs. Georgia Tech, and still couldn't move the ball. They also could do nothing against Penn State and the result is 13 points in two weeks! The defense was also shredded apart, allowing almost 1,100 yards in the two games. Hart will get a chance to back-up his prediction, because he is going to get a lot of carries and Notre Dame can't stop either the run or the pass. We would be surprised if this game is within two TD's because it is more likely to be a blow-out Michigan win. And you can bet if Michigan has a chance to post a massive win, they will not even think of letting up after their bad start. Michigan minus the points.

This is an in-state rivalry game, so the chances of Louisville being a no-show are slim to none. Louisville has always played second fiddle to Kentucky, but lately, not on the scoreboard. The tell-tale signs of this series are easy to spot. Louisville has completely dominated this Wildcat team. Last season it was 31-0 before Kentucky knew what hit them. The year before it was 28-7 and the year before that, Kentucky never even found the scoreboard. Kentucky has rushed for just over 100 yards in the last three games combined! Yes, they have scored, but when the game has long been decided. This may be the best Louisville offense ever, and that is a bold statement based on the points this team has been able to amass the past few seasons. Kentucky can't and won't stop it. The Wildcats, being from the SEC, have lots of games vs. top 10 teams, but the last time they beat one was 1977. For those without a calculator handy, that's 34 years ago! This line is held down by the fact that Kentucky hung a pair of 50+ scores against a couple of cupcakes, and Louisville allowed MTSU to put up 42. You have to know the mindset of the team was not one of focus playing MTSU! This is an in-state rivalry, and the volume is going to be turned up. Kentucky isn't the kind of team that beats Louisville, because they can't defend them. They are going to have to try to win a shoot-out and that won't happen. Louisville can name the score here.

New Mexico is now 9-5 ATS dating back to last year. After starting slowly vs. UTEP in week one, their offense came alive last week, posting 44 against New Mexico State. New Mexico held down the mighty New Mexico State offense last week. Yes, NMST scored 34 but this is a team that is capable of double-that. New Mexico's HC Rocky Long is known for defense and his team returned 10 starters this season. Arizona won a meaningless non-lined game last week vs. Northern Arizona. They allowed lowly N. Arizona 24 points. In week one they were hammered 20-7 by BYU. Will it be another dissapointing season under Mike Stoops? Arizona is the better team but New Mexico can hang with them. Under Long, the Lobos are 18-9 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Arizona is 8-19 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Overall they are just 14-33 in their last 47 as a home favorite. We like a superb New Mexico team getting a ton of points.

Results: 3-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View 2007 college football pick results here.
• Hop over to our football ATS standings here.
• View NCAA football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• View our football blog here.
• Check out college football sports book here.
• Hop over to our Football lines here.
• Check out NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Read our college football prior picks here.
• Don't forget to read our 2007 college football preview here.
• View our updated football handicapping.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-06-2007
70% of the betting public is on Oregon State in this one. We're on the other side. Oregon State plays their second straight Thursday night game here. They won their first game over Utah in convinc...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2007
Primetime father vs. son matchup here in round #9 of the "Bowden Bowl." While Bobby Bowden won the first four, the younger Bowden has won three of the last four. Clemson got o...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-29-2007
Charlie Weatherby may have his best team yet at ULM this year. He has yet to have a winning record at ULM, but this season should change and a Bowl bid is not out of the question. The Warhawks return ...