Free Bowl Picks - September 13, 2008

We hit easily with our 4-unit play on North Carolina on Thursday, boosting our season-to-date record up to 16-7 (70%) for +24.2 units ($2,420 for $100 players). On Saturday, we like eight games.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: California at Maryland (Saturday 9/13 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Maryland +14 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

We faded Maryland last week and good thing as the Terps lost by 10 points as a 12.5 point favorite. They have not been able to get anything going on offense, and they will be hoping for different results from newly appointed signal caller Chris Turner. The Bears in contrast are out of the gate fast outscoring two opponents 104-34. The one thing about this recruited group of Cal players is they can look like world beaters one week, and come back and lay an egg the next week. Last year they opened with a big 14 point win vs. Tennessee, then went on the road favored by the same as they are here at Colorado State and almost lost. They go to Oregon as a TD dog and win, then come home and inexcusably lose to Oregon State as a two-TD favorite. Then they finish the season at home vs Stanford as a two-TD favorite, and again lose outright at home. They have gone just 5-11 ATS on the road the last three years (10-22 over the past fifteen). While this one looks to easy for California, we have seen from this group that when it looks like a cakewalk, they are often a no-show. Maryland hangs tough at home.

Ball State heads to Akron for the opener of Mid-American Conference play for both teams. Ball has faced two soft teams, beating a rebuilding Navy team and easily getting past Northeastern. Akron got beat by a top 25 team in Wisconsin, but handed a poor BCS Conference Syracuse team on the road rather easily. The Zips have always done well in their home openers where they have compiled a 70-35 mark. Ball State is solid and balanced offensively, but untested. In contrast, Akron has piled up some solid numbers against much better opposition. The Cardinals are yielding over 200 yards on the ground, while Alex Allen and Dennis Kennedy combined for nearly 200 against Syracuse. The Zips have not been able to stop the run, but Ball State prefers to throw a lot. Expect the Zips to grind this one out on the ground, exploiting the Cardinals weakness in an attempt to shorten the game. That should open up a good air attack. This should be a high scoring affair, and the Zips have the ability to match Ball State score for scor. It looks like the last one to have the ball wins here, so I'll take the points and go with the Zips.

I pointed out that these teams could very well go down to the last possession here, and Akron has had a lot of success in home openers over the years. The odds are value laden in a game of this nature on the moneyline. Under JD Brookhart, the Zips are 13-15 straight-up as a dog and 6-2 after a good game in which they outgained their opponent by 125+ yards. I will go with the Zips to spring the upset at home.

Over 70% of the betting public is on East Carolina in this one as they are buying in to the hype. What a complete role reversal we are seeing, as the hunter is now the hunted. East Carolina is coming off back-to-back huge upsets vs. top 25 teams at home. But now they must take to the road against a team they are supposed to beat easily. Make no mistake, this is a vastly different situation than the past two weeks. Could this team be ready to take a collective sigh of relief and get caught off-guard? We think so! Players were quoted saying, "It feels like we won a Championship." Guess who is in for a big emotional letdown here? Yes, it is going to be next to impossible to reach the emotional and physical energy levels that they did the past two weeks playing at home and winning two big games in a row. Now Tulane has a chance to knock off the Cinderella of '08, and turn that ruby slipper black. Tulane has the talent, and undoubtedly the emotional level to do just that as they will be the more "up" team this week. Tulane has already played a team of East Carolina's caliber on the road, at Alabama. They lost on the scoreboard by just 14. But if not for two special teams TDs by the Tide, Tulane could have come out with a deserved win. I say deserved because they completely out-played Bama, as they finished with 318 yards to the Tide's 172. This was on the road. Now they come home and catch what should be a physically, and emotionally depleted team. I'll back the Green Wave with the bushel of points here.

Auburn lost to Mississippi State last year at home, so they will be playing with revenge. But do they have the offense to exact the desired revenge? If so, the next question is, can they do it by double-digits? I don't think they have what it takes to cover a double-digit line on the road. The Tigers are looking down the barrel at LSU and Tennessee the next two weeks, so don't expect extra energy put into this one to be running up any score. Auburn has put up yards and points so far, but expect a much greater resistance from a superb Bulldog stop unit that was on the improve late last season beating Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky. Mississippi State also fits a system featuring home dogs in this range in a conference game, with an experienced QB that has kicked out winners at a 72% rate. I'll side with a live Bulldog here!

It's been over 70 years since Texas Tech has started back-to-back seasons at 3-0, and they will undoubtedly do it here. This is Mike Leach's best team ever, thanks to a defense that last year began to gel as a unit. Believe it or not, high scoring Texas Tech led the Big-12 in defense over the last eight games of last year. Leach got back eight defensive starters from that team. Along with that defense returns 10 offensive starters from a team that beat SMU on the road last year by 40. The only time in the last five years Tech had to lay a 30+ on someone they won by 53. SMU only returns 13 starters from a bad team that got demolished last year and ended the season with a 1-11 record. These teams have met at Texas Tech twice in the last five years to a total score of Tech 95 SMU 13. That's an averge margine of victory of 41 points. This has another 40+ pounding written all over it, and I'll lay the wood on Tech here.

While we don't have a side pick on this one, we do have a pick in the top billed game of the season. This is a game in which the loser may likely say good-bye to a possible berth in the National Championship game. There will be NFL players all over the field in this one, and USC may very well have five first round draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio State isn't far behind. The Buckeyes certainly got caught napping and looking ahead last week, narrowly escaping vs. Ohio U. But, expect a much more focused effort here. With Wells sidelined or hobbled, the defense knows it needs an outstanding effort to give their team a chance at the win. USC's Mark Sanchez has not had big game experience and Ohio State's Todd Boeckman came up empty in last year's National Championship game vs another talented defense in LSU. In that game he threw two INTs. This game has about as much talent on defense as you'll find in a college football game and the game, like most big ones, will be played with intensity. USC is a perfect 7-0 UNDER the past couple of seasons after covering a double-digit spread last game. With twobig-game unproven QBs, Wells hurting, and the intensity sure to be present here, I like this one to go UNDER the total.

A bit chalky here you might say? Hardly! Maybe these big lined games get passed on by the average bettor who can't make heads or tails of them, but they are loaded with value. The 40+ big chalks have historically delivered 68% of the time as a matter of fact. Eight of the last fourteen games with a line this big were won by 50 or more. North Texas has been futile against BCS opponents on the road. They have dropped their last 10 straight ATS, losing by an average margin of 56-7! The one major worry in laying this many points is that the coach will decide to let up on the gas at the end of the game. Not Les Miles. Last season he allowed his QB to throw for three TD passes in the 4th quarter in a game he was leading by four touchdowns! Think he is gonna call off the dogs, with BCS rankings on the line? He has won and covered his last seven games as a -31 point favorite or higher, winning by an average of 45.4 points and covering the spread by more than a TD on average. This line looks scary, but the history shows it has value, and I'm laying the wood on the home team.

These are always dangerous games for top BCS teams going on the road and playing a team that has a chance to relly make a name for itself. That's especially true when the team is facing an opponent that went on the road and manhandled a pretty solid Rutgers team last week. Fresno is also catching Wisconsin in a very vulnerable spot. The Baders play the next three weeks vs. Michigan, Penn Stateand Ohio State. Regardless of what is coming for Wisconsin, this is a top team in Fresno State that is deserving of their national ranking. They could find their way into a BCS Bowl with a win here, and this team could be last year's Hawaii. Fresno State is 9-1 in openers under Pat Hill, and they have a history of big upsets as they took down a #10 ranked Oregon State team in 2001. They have also gone to Madison and split two games, including a close 2-point road loss in 2002. Wisconsin has yet to get their feet wet in a competitive game, and Fresno State will be playing this one like a Bowl game, only it is on their turf. I smell an upset brewing but will take the points for safety.

Results: 4-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Take a look at our 2008 college football preview here.
• View our NCAA football Game Analysis here.
• Don't forget to read our college football prior predictions here.
• Check out football sports book reviews here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 NCAA football prior picks results here.
• Check out our updated college football ATS standings.
• Don't forget to read our Football odds lines and spreads here.
• Check out our updated college football expert pick.
• Check out our updated college football picks blog.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-10-2008
Rutgers has found that life after Ray Rice is going to be difficult. Last week they were held to less than 10 points in a game for just the second time in 29 games. Mike Teel moved the team between th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-05-2008
Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2008
An SEC early-season matchup brings Steve Spurrier's high-profile Gamecocks to Vanderbilt. The home team is expected to get blown out. We beg to differ. While most expect this to be a down year for...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-31-2008
This is a "reputation" total, as most college football fans are used to seeing these teams put up big numbers on offense. There is one big difference between these teams this year. Both QB&#...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-30-2008
Coach Bielema has taken this Wisconsin team to January Bowl games his first two years. But this may in fact, be his best team yet. The offensive line is one of the best in the country and they ha...