Ncaa Football Prediction - September 11, 2009

We started off the 2009 season with a winning week one as we finished 6-5. We kick off week two with three pre-Saturday picks including a 5-unit pick on a game I love on Thursday night. Saturday picks will be mailed out late Friday or early Saturday.

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WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-15 last 38 picks	61%	+$1900
MLB	219-171 last 390 picks	56%	+$9920
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	115-88 last 203 picks	57%	+$4520
TOTAL			+$28800

 

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Clemson at Georgia Tech (Thursday 9/10 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Georgia Tech -5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

As I covered in my college football prop bet of the year, I think Clemson is going to struggle this season. The Tigers open ACC play with a game at Georgia Tech and I see them losing this one by a TD or more. Last season when Paul Johnson took the helm at Georgia Tech everyone laughed at him. They wondered out loud how he could operate the option offense in the ACC, as he had successfully at Navy. Well he is the one laughing now as he took inherited players (not recruited to run the option), and ran for 282.3 ypg with a 5.7 ypc average. Now he has the system firmly entrenched. But guess what? Johnson is no dummy and realizes teams will catch up to his offense. So he will be putting the ball in the air more and that just makes the nine returnees on offense more potent. Nesbit is a good strong armed QB that didn't need to throw last year, but when he did it was for 15 yards per completion. Clemson had to be the most overrated and underachieving team from a year ago as their QB and two running backs finished 1, 2 and 3 in the preseason player of the year voting in the ACC. Despite that, Clemson's offense was bad, posting five games with 250 yards or less of offense. The problem was on the offensive line, proving how crucial the line is at this level. Although all but one return, questions remain. They will be breaking in a new QB and Spiller will be the lone experienced back, so this offense should take time to gel. The defense has carried this team, but Vic Koenning didn't see eye-to-eye with new head coach, Dabo Sweeney, and has departed. So a new set of schemes will take time to work their way to a comfort level. That will prove costly, especially on the road vs. a very experienced and versatile offense in Georgia Tech. Think Georgia Tech can score 28 in this one? I think it's highly likely. If you agree, consider that the Yellow Jackets 56-17 ATS over the past two decades when scoring 28+ points. And, Clemson is 11-41 ATS when they allow 28+ points. Also, Georgia Tech is on a 16-5 ATS run in the first two weeks of the season. I like Georgia Tech in this one.

Last year Clemson had the three offensive players rated 1, 2 and 3 in the preseason player of the year voting in the ACC. They managed to gain 250 yards or less in five games, so needless to say the offensive line was very sub-standard for the ACC. This team has talent, they have changed almost every coaching level including defensive coordinator and they are breaking in a new QB. All of this while playing on the road in a hostile environment in the ACC opener. The same offensive line, with some experience, is not going to be easy to pull off on the road early. Georgia Tech ran the ball down everyone's throats a year ago, but with Johnson more comfortable with the players knowledge of the system he is going to open things up. Nesbit has a big arm and talented recievers to which to throw. What was a superb offense last year is going to be more effective because of it. This is a tough place for Clemson to come in on the road with so many new schemes and faces. Paul Johnson is 16-4 straight-up in his last 20 games off a home win. I like Georgia Tech to win this game and it's worth these odds on the moneyline.

Toledo is never an easy out when you get them at home. They have also proven to be best when they aren't expected to win as they have turned in an 8-3 ATS mark as a home dog this decade. The Buffaloes, who once played even with Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big-12, have not been seen since the 1990s. The proof came last week when they were a big favorite at home vs. a weak Colorado State team with a brand new quarerback, and before you knew it they were down 20-3. The offense is simply a mess and the coaching is suspect. Dan Hawkins, while he killed it at Boise, is just 13-23 ATS at Colorado. He claims the Buffs are capable of winning ten games this season, but now there are just 11 left and he has to go to Oklahoma State and Texas yet, so I don't see it. The play calling and defensive line are issues and the secondary is very suspect. This is a team that has won a total of two road games in the last three years and have no right being favored in this spot. Very telling is the fact the Buffalo's are 0-6 ATS following a game where the offense generated 275 yards or less. Toledo is a tough out at home where they are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 played. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home coming off a road loss. I'm going with Toledo in this one.

Results: 2-1

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our Football Game Analysis here.
• Updated today: 2009 college football pick season results.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA football ATS records .
• Read our college football odds and lines here.
• Check out 2009 NCAA football preview here.
• Check out our updated free weekly football picks.
• Updated today: College football betting philosophy.
• View our updated college football prior picks.
• View our updated blog football picks .
• Read our college football sportsbook reviews here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-16-2009
Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson was criticized when he said he would make the option offense work in the ACC as many of his detractors said you can't run that offense in the ACC. The ACC was suppo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-11-2009
Last year the Tar Heels destroyed a then-ranked Huskies’ squad to the tune of 38-12. The game turned as the Huskies played an unusually mistake-prone game, with three INTs and the Heels blocked ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-30-2009
The Ball State Cardinals put themselves on the map last season winning 12 games and a national ranking. The Cards lost a lot on offense and have just four starters returning. But, that includes RB MiQ...