Football Handicapper - September 06, 2008

We got the 3-0 sweep on Thursday night, hitting with Vanderbilt +10, Vandy moneyline at +350, and the UNDER. Overall we scooped 9.9 units. We are now hitting 71% for the season, for +17 units. We have our Saturday picks below - eight games...

If you missed it, check out our College Football Top 25.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Connectuct at Temple (Saturday 9/06 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Temple +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen when a late TD was ruled out of bounds by the refs, while replays clearly showed otherwise. The Owls return all 22 starters this season, all with a fresh memory of that game. Revenge is a sweet motive! Add to that the fact that this team was told a few years ago that they were no longer wanted in the Big East. The Owls finally have the talent to make a statement about those painful memories. UConn was the luckiest team in the Big east last season, getting wins vs. Temple and Louisville that were aided by botched calls. They also got a weather break against South Florida and had a huge surplus in turnovers and relatively few injuries. The result? They finished tied for first in the Big last despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards per game! They looked absolutely horrible against a hapless Hofstra team last week, and won because their talent was just extreme vs the competition. They don't enjoy that edge here, and this one is on the road where the Huskies are just 5-14 in their last 19. The Owls are motivated and pumped up here and we like them a lot to get the cover.

We hit big on Thursday with Vanderbilt on the moneyline. We are going to take another shot here at a big upset call. The Owls are eager to have the Big East powers turn red by beating one of their competent programs. The have the experience and talent to do it against an overrated Huskies team. This is Al Golden's third year at the helm of Temple. During his reign, this team is a perfect 4-0 straight up as a home underdog. Let's go for five straight upset wins for Golden and the Owls.

This game doesn't bode well for Ohio University. It is about as unwinnable a game as Coach Solich could possibly face. With his MAC opener next week vs Central Michigan, I doubt he is going to allow starters to get beaten up for four quarters in this one. His first unit last week could muster under two yards per carry last week against a mediocre Wyoming team. I certainly don't see them faring any better here. Likewise, Ohio State has a huge matchup next week vs. USC, and I don't see the Buckeyes treating this one much differently than an NFL type exhibition game. Let the starters get some work, and allow some kids to get some experience under games conditions. Shorten the game and get out without any injuries. This will be even more true given RB Beanie Wells going down in week one. The Buckeyes are 11-3 UNDER the past three seasons off a win by 21+ points including 7-0 UNDER off a home win by 28+ points. Under Jim Tressel, Ohio State is 12-1 UNDER in that situation. I think this is a short game that goes UNDER the posted total. 

Texas Tech knows one thing - get the ball and score as quickly as possible. Nevada isn't known by many in the country, but this is a good team that is very talented, having made three consecutive Bowl appearances. This team knows something about what it takes to line up across from a high octane offense, as last year they went to Boise State and lost by just two points. They also had everyone's darling Hawaii on the ropes late until losing by two at home. Two years ago, they also lost to Hawaii by just 7 points. Texas Tech often has trouble with teams that can create offense. Last year they gave up 30 points five times, and did not cover a single one! They have covered one of their last 11 games in which they allowed 30+ points. The Wolfpack are 8-1 Under Mike Leach, the Red Raiders are just 5-13 ATS on the road after a 21+ point win. Meanwhile, under Chris Ault, the Wolfpack are 17-5 ATS in home games! Nevada is a much closer team, talent-wise, than this spread indicates (double-digits at home). I'm jumping on this overlay and riding the live dog here.

California had a lot of skilled players that underachieved last season, leading to a disappointing 7-6 mark. They still have a lot of talent, but never seem to rise to the level of that talent as a team. They looked superb last week at home in their win vs Michigan State. But has often been the case with this team, they follow up good performances by going on the road and looking like a completely different team. Last year they were favored on the Pac-10 road three times and lost them all outright. And, they were a double-digit favorite at Colorado State and almost lost the game, but did lose the money. The Bears are in fact just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a road favorite. Washington State has a new coach and a new spread offense system. I like teams that play poorly at home when they are home again under a new coach. A much better effort is indicated here and underachieving Cal is the right dose of medicine for Washington State on Saturday.

Make no mistake - Central Florida did not appreciate the 64-12 burial they suffered last season at the hands of S. Florida. I expect UCF to be stoked for this one. Last year they caught a red-hot Bulls team that was playing themeselves up to the #2 ranking in the country only to tire and fall late. South Florida looked bad in their Bowl game, getting humbled by 35 points as a TD favorite. Lessons to be learned? This is uncharted territory for Jim Leavitt and he will realize that pouring it on early against non-conference foes isn't what the season is about. Remember this Central Florida team beat NC State last year, and got Texas at home and almost pulled the upset losing by a FG. The defense is good enough to hold S. Florida in check, and the revenge motive will have the Knights like a distrubed hive of buzzing bees. This one is a lot closer than it looks. I like a dangerous dog here, and will back the Knights.

Perenially, Duke is a program in turmoil that just never seems to compete in the ACC. As good as the basketball program has been, their football team has been equally bad. They now have put the reigns of the program in the hands of David Cutliffe who was a coordinator at Tennessee and head coach at Ole Miss. He has promised to change the culture of losing at Duke. Last week they beat James Madison, which doesn't appear to mean anything until you look below the surface. James Madsion returned almost everyone from a team that lost by a single point to Appalachain State in the playoffs. Remember Appalachain State beat Michigan in Ann Arbor last year. James Madison is also ranked #5, so that win is a bit larger than most my give credit for. The Blue Devils held Madison to under 250 yards and did not allow a single 3rd down conversion. Duke is returning 10 defensive starters, and they appear to have stepped up with the experience on that side of the ball. So, while many expect a lot of points by Northwestern here, we aren't so sure. Northwestern played a team comparable in ability to Duke in Syracuse last week and held them to just 226 yards. Syracuse was able to muster just 3.7 yards per pass. The Wildcats return eight starters and should be better across the board defensively. The "X" factor here may be some heavy rain from hurricane Hanna, but even without the aid of the weather, I like the UNDER in this one as both defenses are vastly improved.

Things got a bit dicey for Maryland last week as they almost lost to Delaware at home, in the end surviving 14-7. This has to be a concern for the Terps as Delaware is in a rebuilding year, and Maryland could do nothing against them. They have serious QB issues as neither Steffy nor Portis looked capable of leading the team, forcing Maryland to run almost exclusively a ground attack. But, it led to only 14 points. It has been noted over the years that when D-1 teams play poorly against lower division teams they are poor bets the next time out. MTSU had their chances last week vs. Troy, creating multiple turnovers but failing to cash in for points. They had first and goal inside the 5 twice, failing to score a single point. In the end, this is lots of wood for a Maryland offense that could muster just 14 at home vs. a lower division team and now must play on the road vs. an opponent that will be eager to face a BCS conference foe. I think this is an overlay, and will grab the points here.

How far this game has dropped in National significance? A lot. But this is still a heated battle with recruiting implications. Miami was a QB factory for many years, but the past few seasons they have had to rely on a competent defense to keep them in games. Florida rang up 56 on a very under-manned Hawaii team last week, but a closer look shows that special teams and defense accounted for three touchdowns. The offense scored from big plays with three coming outside the red-zone. Things will not come that easy for Florida this week and Miami has the team speed and athleticism to slow the Florida big play attack. Miami on offense has one chance here. They have to run right up the gut of the Florida defense, which is the youngest and most experieinced part of the Gators team. If they have success here, it limits Tebow and the Florida offense. Miami is 17-7 UNDER in all games over the past couple of seasons and they will struggle to score here. I see this game as more of a grind than many expect, and therefore will go with the UNDER here.

Results: 5-3

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2008
An SEC early-season matchup brings Steve Spurrier's high-profile Gamecocks to Vanderbilt. The home team is expected to get blown out. We beg to differ. While most expect this to be a down year for...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-31-2008
This is a "reputation" total, as most college football fans are used to seeing these teams put up big numbers on offense. There is one big difference between these teams this year. Both QB&#...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-30-2008
Coach Bielema has taken this Wisconsin team to January Bowl games his first two years. But this may in fact, be his best team yet. The offensive line is one of the best in the country and they ha...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-26-2008
After a 1-4 start last season Buffalo finished strong producing a winning record in their last seven games. Overall the Bulls went 5-3 in the MAC and outgained conference opponents by over 7...