College Football Pick - September 08, 2007

We nailed the big 4-unit win on Clemson on Monday night to start off the week on the right foot and get us into positive territory overall.

We have a pick for a Thursday night contest as well as five more for Saturday...

WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	250-205 last 455 picks	55%	+$5250
NFL	13-6 Season-to-Date	68%	+$1930
CFB	3-3 Season-to-Date	50%	+$10
TOTAL			+$7190

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Oregon State at Cincinnati (Thursday 9/06 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +3.5

70% of the betting public is on Oregon State in this one. We're on the other side. Oregon State plays their second straight Thursday night game here. They won their first game over Utah in convincing fashion, 24-7. Cincinnati also won in, um, convincing fashion laying a 59-3 beat down on SE Missouri State. The Bearcats will face a much stiffer test this week as they get points at home. They have won 9 of their last 14 ATS in the home dog role and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five overall as a dog. As a home underdog vs. non-division opponents, Cincinnati is an amazing 11-3 ATS in their last fourteen. Last year was their break out year, posting a their best record (8-5) in the Big East and winning their Bowl game. This team continues to be underrated as they went hit 70% ATS last season. With a new head coach in his first real test, we think Cincinnati comes out at home strong, both emotionally and physically. Oregon State is coming off a very good year that saw them go 10-4 and pull off wins over USC, Hawaii and Oregon. They have a lot of starters back but not at QB where they have a new starter. This team typically starts slow having gone 5-17 ATS during the first month of the season over the past fifteen years. While we do think Oregon State is the better team on the field here, we think Cincinnati is underrated and the home field advantage gives them a shot to win outright. With the 3.5 point cushion, we like the Bearcats a lot.

Bama opened as a 5.5 point favorite and the line is moving the right way. We still get to snag Vandy at home getting more than a field goal. Vandy has gone 10-2 ATS vs. Alabama in their last twelve meetings. Yes, I know Nick Saban is considered a college football coaching genius. But, he did inherit a team that went 6-7 last season and that is returning just five defensive starters. Vanderbilt, in contrast, brings back 8 on defense and 9 on offense. They were bad last year but that was a very young team dealing with the loss of Jay Cutler. This is now an experienced squad. Coming off a very easy 52-6 win and with a very important strech coming up vs. Arkansas, Georgia and Florida State, Alabama may be looking past this game just a tad. The Commodores have a history of starting strong as they are now a perfect 6-0 ATS during the first month of the season the past three years. We look for Vandy to keep this one close.

It has been several years since Colorado State put this kind of team on the field. Sonny Lubick can coach, and this year he has some horses. The Rams had Colorado a good chance of winning last week holding a 28-17 lead deep into the 3rd quarter, but they let it slip away in OT. This team has almost everyone back, but the most important piece is Kyle Bell, who went down with an injury early last season. He looked good vs. Colorado, rushing for 137 yards. Caleb Hanie is now a seasoned senior and he also had a big game, going 20-27 for 227 yards and three TDs. California will be coming off a big revenge game vs. Tennessee, and may be a bit flat on the road in this one. The Bears have a potent offense, but their defense is suspect and the Rams will score some points in this one. California has a history of being a "no show" when they are a big favorite, as they stand at 1-10 ATS when favored by 10.5 or more. And, they have not been a good team on the turf change, as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on grass. This is too many points for a team playing on the road after a big emotional win, so we will back the underrated Rams getting the a huge amount of points for a home team.

Indiana football fans are as excited about this season as any. Perenially a Big Ten doormat, this team returns sixteen starters including their quarterback, Kellen Lewis. Lewis had an awesome freshman debut last season (2,221 yards and 19 touchdowns). He'll be throwing to WR James Hardy, an All-Big Ten team member for two straight years. Their pass defense was terrible last year and with improvement on that front (many returners including entire secondary), this team could surprise. Western Michigan also returns 16 players but the all-important QB position is a big question mark as Tim Hiller takes over with no experience prior to last week. Western Michigan got absolutely hammered last week, losing by 38 points to West Virginia (spread was 24). Meanwhile Indiana comes off a confidence-building 55-7 win. We like Indiana to win this one.

The Bulls put the country on notice last season by going on the road and beating West Virginia. We took notice! This is not a program that is a household name, but that is about to change. The Bulls have been steadily improving as they went from a six-win Bowl team in '05 to a nine-win Bowl winner last year. This is their best team yet. Last year this team lost some key players to injury, and overall lost 50 starts to injury, yet still played well. Matt Grothe is the poor man's Patrick White. He is a double threat at QB, and with Mike Ford in the backfield and Amari Jackson and Taurus Johnson to throw to, this offense is going to excel. The defense is healthy again, and what was a good defense last season, may be the best in the Big East this year. Auburn was very fortunate last year, as they went 6-2 in SEC games despite being out-gained by over 30 yards per game. They may not be so fortunate this season, as they will be playing with a re-vamped offensive line, and the speed of the USF defense is going to take them by surprise. Auburn won a lot of close games last season, as they won five by 7 points or less, and this year they return just five starters on offense, having lost a couple dozen lettermen. Last week at home, Auburn could do nothing on the ground vs. a Kansas State team that is average at best. The Bulls are superb behind the line, and in the secondary, and Auburn is going to have a tough time solving their defense. We would not be surprised if USF wins this one outright!

In another "Battle of I-25" New Mexico State takes on cross-town rival New Mexico. The Aggies have covered the spread in four of the last five in this matchup. New Mexico has the better defense, but New Mexico State the better offense - by far! The Aggies are loaded with experience, returning 18 starters including QB Chase Holbrook who put up no less than ten 300+ yard performances last year and 280 last week vs. SE Louisiana. He'll again hook up some very talented and experienced receivers this season. This team was 4-8 last season but that record is a bit deceiving. They were tremendous on offense and actually had decent numbers on defense, but they turned the ball over alot. If their fortunes can turn this year, they could easily turn things around in a big way. Even if they don't get the turnover advantage, they have the tools to overcome them as evidenced by last week's 35-14 win despite coughing it up four times. We see the Aggies scoring here and we're not sure the Lobos can keep up. New Mexico State could win this game and getting a full touchdown as insurance makes it a nice play.

Results: 4-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2007 football prior picks results.
• Don't forget to visit our football against-the-spread records.
• Check out our updated NCAA football Game-of-Week-Preview.
• Updated today: football blog.
• Hop over to our sports betting football here.
• Read our college football odds lines and spreads here.
• View NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Here we show our college football previous picks.
• View our updated 2007 NCAA football preview.
• Don't forget to read our college football game prediction here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-03-2007
Primetime father vs. son matchup here in round #9 of the "Bowden Bowl." While Bobby Bowden won the first four, the younger Bowden has won three of the last four. Clemson got o...

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-29-2007
Charlie Weatherby may have his best team yet at ULM this year. He has yet to have a winning record at ULM, but this season should change and a Bowl bid is not out of the question. The Warhawks return ...