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Winning Football Pick - September 04, 2008We are 7-4 (64%) thus far on the young season. We like the Thursday night game a lot and have three picks in it below. We'll have our Saturday picks out Friday or Saturday morning. We also share our list of 2008 Non-BCS teams that could surprise this season...  Today's NCAA Football Picks: An SEC early-season matchup brings Steve Spurrier's high-profile Gamecocks to Vanderbilt. The home team is expected to get blown out. We beg to differ. While most expect this to be a down year for the Commodores, this team took care of business in a convincing way last week, beating Miami Ohio 34-13 as a 3.5 point dog. Vandy rushed for 266 yards and the offense, which is supposed to be their weakest link, gained confidence in that win. South Carolina opened impressively as well, as they overpowered NC State at home 34-0. That win, along with their high-profile coach, has the public flocking to the Gamecocks here. Many might forget that this team exploded out of the gate last year at 6-1 and was ranked as high as #6 in the polls, but dropped their last five games, missing a Bowl bid. Included in those losses was a 17-6 loss at home to Vandy. This is the first time the Gamecocks have been favored by more than a TD on the road in SEC play since they were a 13 point choice at Kentucky in the '04 season. They won that game by just five points. They met a similar fate two years earlier when they went to Vandy as a 9.5 point favorite, and won by just six. South Carolina has been on the road as an SEC favorite of more than a TD just four times in the last decade, and have never come home with the ATS win, with two of their losses coming to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt may be down a bit, but will be riding the confidence of a big win, playing at home. The team and this home crowd, with the national spotlight, will be amped up. SEC battles are traditionally tough, and we think this one will be more difficult than it looks. We will grab the bushel of points here. We also like the UNDER. With 16 returning defensive starters on the field tonight compared to just 10 offensive starters, defense should rule. Sure, both of these teams put up gaudy numbers last week, but that was against NC State and Miami Ohio. Under Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks are a perfect 7-0 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season. We expect defense to rule here and this one to come in below 42 points. Game: South Carolina at Vanderbilt (Thursday 9/04 8:35 PM Eastern) Pick: 1 unit on Vanderbilt +350 (moneyline) (risk 1 to win 3.5) We are going to go out on a big limb here and pick the Commodores in an upset. In addition to what we have written above, we note that home teams off double digit road wins are 37-11 the past five seasons during September. We'll put a small one-unit wager on Vanderbilt to pull the outright upset. NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters: NCAA-Football-Picks-August-31-2008 NCAA-Football-Picks-August-30-2008 NCAA-Football-Picks-August-26-2008 |
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