College Football Bowl Picks - September 01, 2007

Fall is "in the air." The days are getting shorter, the weather's getting a bit colder and the leaves are starting to turn. If you listen closely enough, you can hear the faint sounds of college bands playing fight songs... You know what that means!

Week one college ball has arrived and we have five picks as well as our take on Mid-Majors that are under the radar. If you missed it last week, check out the Wunderdog Preseason Top 25...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Tulsa at U L Monroe (Thursday 8/30 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U L Monroe +3

Charlie Weatherby may have his best team yet at ULM this year. He has yet to have a winning record at ULM, but this season should change and a Bowl bid is not out of the question. The Warhawks return everyone on offense and as such should easily eclipse the 21.8 points per game they averaged last season. This team lost just 16 letterman and bring back most of the key players. They finished 4-8 last season, but lost five games by a total of 15 points, so they certainly aren't that far away. With the experience on the field this season, most of those five close games should go in the win column in 2007. Todd Graham takes over at Tulsa and expectations are always high. The Golden Hurricane have managed three Bowl bids in the last four years, but this perhaps may be a transition season. Tulsa returns just four starters and six players on defense. With a new coach, new system, and lots of young players, it may take time to develop. ULM, a team that for once has a lot of weapons and experience, is catching a young Tulsa team at the right time. We like the home dog here to pull the surprise.

Kent State returns eight starters on both sides of the ball and 44 lettermen and should have a good 2007 campaign. This season should be a continuation of the improvement we saw last year. The Golden Flashes went from one win in 2005 to six last year and this year they could be contending for the MAC title. QB Julian Edelman (2,400 total yards last year) is every bit as talented as his counterpart this day, Bret Meyer, and now has a full season under his belt. This team missed 8 of 10 field goals last season including 4 of 5 within 30 yards! Assuming that catastrophe doesn't repeat, this team could win nine or more games this season. The team and fans are really pumped for this season, given the potential. They get a "big time" non-conference foe here in their first game and will be up for this game. Iowa State may not be as jazzed about their opponent and as a result may not be as up for this game. The Cyclones fell apart late last season, dropping four of their last five games to finish 4-8. They return 7 starters on defense but just 4 offensive starters and 28 lettermen overall. On defense they lost All-Big 12 tackle Brent Curvey and the team's all-time sack leader Shawn Moorehead. This team gave up 31 points per game last season and scored just 18.8 so they have a long way to go. Last year, with a better team than this (10 returning offensive starters), they needed three overtimes to beat another MAC school (Toledo). We don't see Iowa State blowing out a motivated and talented Kent State squad here. The Flashes, who beat Miami Ohio and Bowling Green on the road last year, keep this one close.

Wake, the defending ACC champions are getting a nice chunk of points here in their opener. They went 11-3 last year including a perfect 6-0 on the road. They return nine offensive starters including a veteran QB in Riley Skinner. Skinner set 10 school records last year as a freshman. You need to take a close hard look at Wake in the underdog role as under HC Jim Grobe, they have gone 20-8 ATS when getting points! They have owned ACC Atlantic opponents lately (on a 9-1 ATS streak) and they have won and covered the spread four straight times vs. BC (including three outright upset wins). BC meanwhile has a new head coach and new offensive coordinator so don't be surprised if the Eagles are caught by surprise here.

Memphis had a nightmare of a season last year, finishing with a dismal 2-10 record. It was a season full of what could of been... but everything went wrong. It's a program that had gone to three straight Bowl games, and yet the wheels fell off in 2006. They lost five games by small margins: 3, 6, 3, 2 and 3 points. And, even though they lost to East Carolina by 15, they actually led that game in the 4th quarter. The team could have quit, especially after a tough loss at Houston in OT 23-20, but they did not. They went to UTEP to face a team that needed a win at home vs. this 1-10 Memphis team to become Bowl eligible. Memphis humiliated UTEP 37-19. They finished 2-10, definitely bad. But this team with a few breaks, actually could have gone to a Bowl game. This season they bring back most of that team - eight on each side. The defense will be much better and the offense is loaded. Ed Orgeron is in a tough place, trying to compete in the SEC. The Rebels managed a 28-25 squeaker vs. Memphis last year at home, despite being outgained, having a turnover edge and home field advantage. The problem is this year, the game is at Memphis. The Rebels failed to win any games on the road last year and have won on the road just two times in the last three years! Again, there is no Eli Manning in the huddle this season. The 2003 Manning-led Rebels averaged 34.3 points per game. It has now been 28 games since the Rebels have seen even 29. Last year they managed under 17 ppg and we don't see that too many things that have changed. These teams have met in the last four years and Memphis has outscored the Rebels over those four games. This season Memphis again looks like the better team, with the luxury of playing it at home.

There is nothing mid-major about Toledo and coach Tom Amstutz. The Rockets went 53-17 before last season and 45-18 under Amstutz. The injuries killed this team last season as they lost over 30 starts due to injuries. It did help this team build depth though, and with 16 starters returning, expect this team to rebound in a big way. The Glass Bowl is not an easy place to play for visiting teams. The Rockets have gone 38-4 here and not many top teams want any part of it. Pittsburgh is the only ranked team out of conference to dare come in here, and they left with a 35-31 loss. They have not met Purdue in quite some time, but own a 2-1 mark vs. the Boilermakers. Last season Purdue allowed 432 yards per game and that was without having to face Ohio State or Michigan! It isn't too often this team ventures out-of-conference on the road except for the annual Notre Dame game every other year. They will be playing a superb team with the motivational edge facing a Big Ten team, and a huge home field advantage. We look for the Rockets to, at the very least, keep this one close.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-August-14-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-July-20-2007
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